Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016

Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016

5 May 2016

All 108 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly 55 seats were needed for a majority   First party Second party Third party   Leader Arlene Foster Martin McGuinness Mike Nesbitt Party DUP Sinn Féin UUP Leader since 17 December 2015 N/A 31 March 2012 Leader's seat Fermanagh & South Tyrone Foyle Strangford Last election 38 seats, 30% 29 seats, 26.9% 16 seats, 13.2% Seats won 38 28 16 Seat change 1 Popular vote 202,567 166,785 87,302 Percentage 29.2% 24% 12.6% Swing 0.8% 2.9% 0.6%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Colum Eastwood David Ford Steven Agnew Party SDLP Alliance Green (NI) Leader since 14 November 2015 6 October 2001 10 January 2011 Leader's seat Foyle South Antrim North Down Last election 14 seats, 14.2% 8 seats, 7.7% 1 seat, 0.9% Seats won 12 8 2 Seat change 2 1 Popular vote 83,364 48,447 18,718 Percentage 12% 7.0% 2.7% Swing 2.2% 0.7% 1.8%   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Eamonn McCann [1] Jim Allister Party People Before Profit TUV Leader since N/A 7 December 2007 Leader's seat Foyle North Antrim Last election 0 seats, 0.8% 1 seat, 2.4% Seats won 2 1 Seat change 2 Popular vote 13,761 23,776 Percentage 2.0% 3.4% Swing 1.2% 1%

Number of seats gained by each of the parties.

First Minister and deputy First Minister before election Arlene Foster (DUP) & Martin McGuinness (SF) First Minister and deputy First Minister after election Arlene Foster (DUP) & Martin McGuinness (SF)

The 2016 election to the Northern Ireland Assembly was held on 5 May 2016. It was the fifth election to take place since the devolved assembly was established in 1998. 1,281,595 individuals were registered to vote in the election (representing an increase of 5.9% compared to the previous Assembly election).^[2] Turnout in the 2016 Assembly election was 54.9%, a decline of less than one percentage point from the previous Assembly election but down 15 percentage points from the first election to the Assembly held in 1998.^[3]

As in the 2007 and 2011 elections, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin won the most seats, with the DUP winning 38 and Sinn Féin winning 28 of the available 108 seats. The Ulster Unionist Party won 16 seats, the Social Democratic and Labour Party 12 and the Alliance 8, while two seats were won by the Green Party and People Before Profit. The Traditional Unionist Voice and an independent candidate each won one seat.

Change of date

Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, elections to the Assembly were originally for a four-year term; thus there would have been an election due in May 2015, four years after the 2011 election. Following the introduction of the UK Fixed Term Parliaments Act, this date would have clashed with the 2015 UK general election.^[4] The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections were postponed for a year to 2016 to avoid this clash.^[5]

In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter.^[6] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth (rather than fourth, as previously) calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected.^[7]

End of dual mandate

The Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 also ends the practice of dual mandate, prohibiting someone being elected to the assembly who is also a member of the House of Commons or Dáil Éireann.^[7] At the time the Act was passed, there were three such dual-members: the DUP's Sammy Wilson (MP for East Antrim and MLA for East Antrim) and Gregory Campbell (MP for East Londonderry and MLA for East Londonderry) and the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell (MP for Belfast South and MLA for Belfast South).^[8] Wilson and McDonnell resigned from the Assembly after being re-elected to the House of Commons in the 2015 election. Campbell, who was also re-elected as an MP, is retiring from the Assembly at this election.^[9]

Earlier dissolution

There are several circumstances in which the Assembly could be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

Dissolution motion

Under section 32 of the 1998 Act, the Assembly can be dissolved if a resolution to such an effect is passed by the Assembly, with support of 72 or more members.

Failure to elect the First or deputy First Ministers

The Act provides that if the Assembly fails to elect either the First Minister or deputy First Minister within six weeks, an election is called. Since the enactment of the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006, the First Minister has been nominated by the largest party overall, and the deputy First Minister has been nominated by the single largest party in the largest community designation ("Nationalist", "Unionist" or "Other") to which the largest party overall does not belong.

New Executive Departments

It is proposed^[10] that after the May 2016 Election there be a reduction in the number of ministries and departments. The amendments are:

• The Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister is renamed the Executive Office
• The Department of Agriculture and Rural Development is renamed the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs
• The Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment is renamed the Department for the Economy
• The Department of Finance and Personnel is renamed the Department of Finance
• The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety is renamed the Department of Health
• The Department for Regional Development is renamed the Department for Infrastructure
• The Department for Social Development is renamed the Department for Communities
• The Department of Justice remains unchanged Department of Justice (Northern Ireland)
• The Department of Culture, Arts and Leisure is dissolved
• The Department of the Environment is dissolved
• The Department for Employment and Learning is dissolved

Candidates

Nominations opened on 30 March 2016 for the assembly election.^[11] A full list of candidates is available.^[12][13]

Parties standing in more than one constituency were:

• Democratic Unionist Party
• Sinn Féin
• Ulster Unionist Party
• Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Alliance
• Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)
• Green Party
• Progressive Unionist Party
• People Before Profit Alliance
• UKIP
• Cannabis is Safer Than Alcohol
• Conservative
• Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee
• Cross-Community Labour Alternative
• The Workers Party

Various independents and smaller parties also stood.

Members not seeking re-election

Alliance

• Judith Cochrane (Belfast East)^[14]
• Anna Lo (Belfast South)^[15]
• Kieran McCarthy (Strangford)^[16]

DUP

• Gregory Campbell (East Londonderry)^[9]
• Stephen Moutray (Upper Bann)^[17]
• Peter Robinson (Belfast East)^[18]

NI21

• Basil McCrea (Lagan Valley)^[19]

SDLP

• Dominic Bradley (Newry and Armagh)^[20]
• John Dallat (East Londonderry)^[21]
• Alban Maginness (Belfast North)^[22]

Sinn Féin

• Bronwyn McGahan (Fermanagh and South Tyrone)^[23]
• Mitchel McLaughlin (South Antrim)^[24]

UUP

• Leslie Cree (North Down)^[25]
• Sam Gardiner (Upper Bann)^[26]
• Michael McGimpsey (Belfast South)^[27]

UKIP

• David McNarry (Strangford)^[28]

Contesting Parties

Party		Leader	Seats			Votes			Seats
			Candi- dates	won	Change from 2011	First Preference votes	First Pref. %	Change from 2011	Council 1st pref. %	on NI Execu- tive	Change from 2015
	DUP	Arlene Foster	44	38	0	202,567	29.2%	-0.8%		5	+1
	Sinn Féin	Gerry Adams	39	28	-1	166,785	24.0%	-2.9%		4	+1
	UUP	Mike Nesbitt	33	16	0	87,302	12.6%	-0.6%		0	-1
	SDLP	Colum Eastwood	24	12	-2	83,364	12.0%	-2.2%		0	-1
	Alliance	David Ford	23	8	0	48,447	7.0%	-0.7%		0	-1
	TUV	Jim Allister	15	1	0	23,776	3.4%	+1.0%		-	-
	Green (NI)	Steven Agnew	18	2	+1	18,718	2.7%	+1.8%		-	-
	People Before Profit	Eamonn McCann	3	2	+2	13,761	2.0%	+1.2%		-	-
	UKIP	Nigel Farage	13	-		10,109	1.5%	+0.8%
	PUP	Billy Hutchinson	6	-		5,955	0.9%	+0.3%
	NI Conservatives	David Cameron	12	-		2,554	0.4%	N/A
	CISTA	Paul Birch	4	-		2,510	0.4%	N/A
	Labour Alternative	Owen McCracken	3	-		1,939	0.3%	N/A
	NI Labour	Kathryn Johnston	8	-		1,577	0.2%	N/A
	Workers' Party	John Lowry	4	-		1,565	0.2%	±0.0
	South Belfast Unionists	William Dickson	1	-		351	0.0%	N/A
	Animal Welfare	Vanessa Hudson	1	-		224	0.0%	N/A
	Democracy First	Frazer McCammond	1	-		124	0.0%	N/A
	Northern Ireland First	Geoff Dowey	1	-		32	0.0%	N/A
	Independents	N/A	23	1	0	22,650	3.3%	+0.9%		1	+1
Seats total and Valid Votes				108		694,314	98.7%			10	-
Invalid Votes						9,430	1.3%
Total valid poll						703,744	100.0%
Electorate and turnout						1,281,595	54.9%

Notes:

Results from Raymond Russell, "Election Report: Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 5 May 2016", Northern Ireland Assembly

• Total valid poll 703,744. Electorate: 1,281,595; turnout: 54.9%.

Results

Distribution of seats by constituency

Party affiliation of the six Assembly members returned by each constituency. The first column indicates the party of the Member of the House of Commons (MP) returned by the corresponding parliamentary constituency in the general election of 7 May 2010 (under the "first past the post" method).

(The constituencies are arranged here in rough geographical order around Lough Neagh from Antrim to Londonderry. To see them in alphabetical order, click the small square icon after "Constituency"; to restore this geographical order, refresh or reload the page.)

2015 MP	Constituency	Candi- dates	Total seats	PBP	Green	Sinn Féin	SDLP	Alli- ance	UUP	DUP	TUV	Ind.	Seat gained by	Seat formerly held by
DUP	North Antrim	-	6	-	-	1	-	-	1	3	1	-	-	-
DUP	East Antrim	-	6	-	-	1	-	1	1	3	-	-	-	-
UUP	South Antrim	-	6	-	-	1	-	1	1	3	-	-	-	-
DUP	Belfast North	-	6	-	-	2	1	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
SF	Belfast West	-	6	1	-	4	1	-	-	-	-	-	PBP	SF
SDLP	Belfast South	-	6	-	1	1	1	1	-	2	-	-	Green	SDLP
													DUP	UUP
DUP	Belfast East	-	6	-	-	-	-	2	1	3	-	-	-	-
Ind.	North Down	-	6	-	1	-	-	1	1	3	-	-	-	-
DUP	Strangford	-	6	-	-	-	-	1	2	3	-	-	-	-
DUP	Lagan Valley	-	6	-	-	-	-	1	2	3	-	-	UUP	DUP
DUP	Upper Bann	-	6	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	-	-	SF	SDLP
SDLP	South Down	-	6	-	-	2	2	-	1	1	-	-	-	-
SF	Newry and Armagh	-	6	-	-	3	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	-
UUP	Fermanagh & South Tyrone	-	6	-	-	2	1	-	1	2	-	-	SDLP	SF
SF	West Tyrone	-	6	-	-	3	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	-
SF	Mid Ulster	-	6	-	-	3	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	-
SDLP	Foyle	-	6	1	-	2	2	-	-	1	-	-	PBP	SDLP
DUP	East Londonderry	-	6	-	-	1	1	-	-	3	-	1	-	-
18	Total	-	108	2	2	28	12	8	16	38	1	1
	Change since dissolution	-	-	+2	+1	–1	–2	-	+3	-	-	–1	–1	–1
	Assembly at dissolution	-	108	-	1	29	14	8	13	38	1	2	1 UKIP	1 NI21
	Change during Assembly term	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	–3	-	-	+1	+1	+1
	Elected on 5 May 2011	218	108	-	1	29	14	8	16	38	1	1	-
	Elected on 7 March 2007	256	108	-	1	28	16	7	18	36	-	1	1 Prog. U.
	Elected on 23 November 2003		108	-	-	24	18	6	27	30	-	1	1 Prog. U.	1 UKUP
	Elected on 25 June 1998		108	-	-	18	24	6	28	20	-	4	2 Prog. U.	5 UKUP, 2 NIWC

• Three of the four independents elected in 1998 ran as Independent Unionists
• NIWC = Northern Ireland Women's Coalition; Prog. U. = Progressive Unionist Party; TUV = Traditional Unionist Voice; UKUP = United Kingdom Unionist Party

Share of first-preference votes

Percentage of each constituency's first-preference votes. Three highest percentages in each constituency shaded; absolute majorities underlined. The constituencies are arranged in the geographic order described for the table above; click the icon next to "Constituency" to see them in alphabetical order.

• [The totals given here are the sum of all valid ballots cast in each constituency, and the percentages are based on such totals. The turnout percentages in the last column, however, are based upon all ballots cast, which also include anything from twenty to a thousand invalid ballots in each constituency. The total valid ballots' percentage of the eligible electorate can correspondingly differ by 0.1% to 2% from the turnout percentage.]

2015 MP	MP's % of 2015 vote	Constituency	PBP	Green	Sinn Féin	SDLP	Alli- ance	UUP	DUP	TUV	Ind.	Others.	Total votes	Eligible elector- ate	Turn- out %
DUP	43.2%	North Antrim		1.3	12.9	7.5	3.2	10.7	43.1	17.9		3.3	-	-	52.3%
DUP	36.1%	East Antrim		2.1	8.1	3.8	14.6	20.2	36.1	5.1		9.9	-	-	50.5%
UUP	32.7%	South Antrim		1.7	13.2	9.6	8.9	22.2	37.5	3.8	1.4	1.7	-	-	50.4%
DUP	47.0%	Belfast North	3.5	2.2	26.5	10.6	7.0	5.4	35.0	1.8	0.9	7.1	-	-	51.6%
SF	54.2%	Belfast West	22.9	0.9	54.5	7.3	0.8	1.8	10.4			1.5	-	-	56.7%
SDLP	24.5%	Belfast South		9.6	14.2	20.0	16.4	6.7	22.0	1.3	1.3	8.5	-	-	53.6%
DUP	49.3%	Belfast East		5.9	2.5	0.4	28.7	11.1	36.7	2.4	3.0	9.4	-	-	56.5%
Ind.	49.2%	North Down		12.7	1.0	1.3	16.8	15.5	41.7	1.9	4.4	4.7	-	-	49.0%
DUP	44.4%	Strangford		2.8	2.0	8.3	10.7	19.5	43.0	4.3	5.9	3.4	-	-	49.7%
DUP	47.9%	Lagan Valley		2.9	2.7	7.5	9.5	21.2	47.2	3.3	2.1	3.6	-	-	52.7%
DUP	32.7%	Upper Bann		1.1	24.9	9.5	3.1	21.6	31.1	2.6	0.1	6.0	-	-	53.6%
SDLP	42.3%	South Down		2.0	31.1	31.4	5.4	8.5	12.3	6.6	2.8		-	-	53.1%
SF	41.1%	Newry & Armagh		0.7	40.9	18.2	1.0	14.1	16.7		5.5	2.9	-	-	58.4%
UUP	46.4%	Fermanagh & S. Tyrone		1.9	40.0	8.5	1.1	12.8	32.7	2.5		0.6	-	-	63.5%
SF	43.5%	West Tyrone		1.2	42.0	11.0	1.3	11.4	22.0		8.9	2.1	-	-	59.1%
SF	48.7%	Mid Ulster		0.9	46.7	15.2	1.2	11.9	18.1	4.6		1.4	-	-	57.9%
SDLP	47.9%	Foyle	10.5	0.4	28.5	30.0	0.6	3.6	11.9		13.9	0.8	-	-	55.3%
DUP	42.2%	East Londonderry		1.3	21.8	9.5	3.7	8.3	36.8	3.5	9.7	5.4	-	-	50.1%
18		Northern Ireland	2.0	2.7	24.0	12.0	7.0	12.6	29.2	3.4	3.9	3.3	703,744	1,281,595	54.9%
		Change since 2011	+1.2	+1.8	–2.9	–2.2	–0.7	–0.6	–0.8	+1.0	+1.7	+1.0	+42,008	+71,586	–0.7%
		Election of May 2011		0.9	26.9	14.2	7.7	13.2	30.0	2.5	2.2	2.3	661,736	1,210,009	55.6%
		Election of March 2007		1.7	26.2	15.2	5.2	14.9	30.1	-	3.8	2.8	690,313	1,107,904	62.9%
		Election of Nov. 2003		0.4	23.5	17.0	3.7	22.7	25.7	-	5.6	2.8	692,026	1,097,526	63.1%
		Election of June 1998		0.1	17.6	22.0	6.5	21.3	18.1	-	10.9	3.5	823,565	1,178,556	69.9%

• Independent Unionist vote in 1998 (2.8%) included in the Independent column (not "others"). TUV = Traditional Unionist Voice.

Incumbents defeated

Sinn Féin

• Rosie McCorley — Belfast West
• Maeve McLaughlin — Foyle
• Cathal Ó hOisín — East Londonderry
• Phil Flanagan — Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Democratic Unionist Party

• Jonathan Craig — Lagan Valley
• Ian McCrea — Mid Ulster
• David McIlveen — North Antrim

Ulster Unionist Party

• Alastair Patterson — Fermanagh and South Tyrone
• Adrian Cochrane-Watson - South Antrim

Social Democratic and Labour Party

• Dolores Kelly — Upper Bann
• Gerard Diver — Foyle
• Karen McKevitt — South Down (stood in Newry and Armagh)
• Fearghal McKinney — Belfast South
• Seán Rogers — South Down

Independent

• John McCallister — South Down

Opinion Polling

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	DUP	SF	SDLP	UUP	Alliance	TUV	Green	Others
30 Mar – 1 Apr 2016	Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph	970	26.5%	25.8%	11.9%	15.6%	8.1%	4.1%	2.6%	5.4%
8–12 Feb 2016	Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph	2,886	26.6%	24.6%	11.2%	14.5%	8.2%	3.5%	2.6%	8.8%
19–21 Oct 2015	Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph	2,517	25.8%	25.4%	10.8%	15.0%	7.6%	3.2%	2.4%	9.8%
7 May 2015	General Election Results	718,512	25.7%	24.5%	13.9%	16.0%	8.6%	2.3%	1.0%	8.0%
22 May 2014	2014 Local Election Results	627,777	23.1%	24.1%	13.6%	16.2%	6.7%	4.5%	0.9%	10.9%
22 May 2014	2014 European Election Results	626,125	20.9%	25.5%	13.0%	13.3%	7.1%	12.1%	1.7%	6.3%
Sep 2013	Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph	N/A	29.3%	26.1%	13.8%	10.8%	10.2%	2.2%	1.3%	6.3%
Jan 2013	IPSOS-MORI/BBC	1,046	24%	23%	19%	13%	10%	—	—	11%
5 May 2011	Assembly Election Results	661,736	29.3%	26.3%	13.9%	12.9%	7.7%	2.4%	0.9%	6.6%

Footnotes

References

1. "View Registration - The Electoral Commission".
2. "Electoral Office for Northern Ireland: Eligible Electorate" (PDF). Retrieved 8 May 2016.
3. "Electoral Office for Northern Ireland: Turnout Statistics" (PDF). Retrieved 8 May 2016.
4. "The new Northern Ireland Bill". AgendaNi. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
5. "Government welcomes elections agreement - Press releases". GOV.UK. 3 May 2011. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
6. "Northern Ireland Assembly elections put back to 2016". BBC News Online. 10 May 2013. Retrieved 11 May 2013.
7. "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
8. "The new Northern Ireland Bill". AgendaNi.com. 2 September 2013. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
9. Gareth Gordon (3 March 2016). "Gregory Campbell to stand down as MLA ahead of double-jobbing ban". BBC News Online. Retrieved 27 March 2016.
10. "Departments Bill 70/11-16" (PDF). Northern Ireland Assembly. Retrieved 31 January 2016.
11. "Northern Ireland Assembly Election May 2016" (PDF). Electoralcommission.org.uk. Retrieved 31 December 2015.
12. "The Electoral Office of Northern Ireland". EONI.org.uk. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
13. "Northern Ireland election 2016: Candidates". BBC News. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
14. "An Alliance For The Future?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
15. "Anna Lo to quit NI politics over disillusionment". BBC News Online. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
16. "Alliance MLA Kieran McCarthy to stand down from Assembly". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
17. "DUP man Moutray to step down from the Assembly - Belfast Newsletter". Newsletter.co.uk. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
18. Clarke, Liam (19 November 2015). "DUP's Peter Robinson: I'm standing down within weeks". The Belfast Telegraph. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
19. "I'm finished with politics, says Basil McCrea – bombshell announcementsounds death knell for NI21". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
20. "SDLP's Dominic Bradley to retire as MLA next year". UTV. 19 October 2015.
21. "Race for Dallat's east Derry seat". Derry Journal. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
22. "SDLP's Alban Maginness: I will not contest assembly election in May". BBC News Online. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
23. "Phil Flanagan fails Sinn Féin reselection test". The Irish News. 15 December 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
24. "Speaker Mitchel McLaughlin to stand down from Assembly". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
25. "Veteran independent councillor Alan Chambers joins UUP". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk.
26. "Sam Gardiner misses out on UUP selection for Assembly election". Portadown Times. 17 September 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
27. "Michael McGimpsey to stand down from Northern Ireland Assembly". BBC News Online. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
28. "#EURef Leave campaigns at the UKIP Northern Ireland conference #UKIPNI15". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 7 May 2016.