Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

Opinion polling on the referendum since 2013, showing "remain" in green, "leave" in red, and "undecided" in blue (as of 23 June 2016)

The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day. Polls on the general principle of Britain's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum. Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving. Polls of business leaders, scientists, and lawyers showed majorities in favour of remaining. Among non-British citizens in other EU member states, polling suggested that a majority were in favour of the UK remaining in the EU in principle, but that a similarly sized majority believed that if the UK were only able to remain in the EU on renegotiated terms then it should leave.

Analysis

Demographics

Younger voters tended to support remaining in the EU (but are generally less likely to vote[1]) whereas older people tended to support leaving. There was no significant difference in attitudes between the genders. According to two out of three pollsters, managerial, professional and administrative workers were most likely to favour staying in the EU, while semi-skilled and unskilled workers, plus those reliant on benefits, were the largest demographic supporting leave. University graduates are generally more likely to vote remain compared to those with no qualifications.[2] White voters were evenly split, and all ethnic minority groups leant towards backing Remain, but registration is lower and turnout can be up to 25% lower in this demographic.[3] Support for remaining in the EU was known to be significantly higher in Scotland than it is in Great Britain as a whole, with Scottish voters saying they are generally more likely to vote.[4]

Polling methods

The way voters are polled is known to affect the outcome. Telephone polls have consistently found more support for remaining in the EU than online polls.[5] YouGov, which uses online polling, has criticised telephone polls because they "have too high a percentage of graduates", skewing the results.[6] Ipsos MORI and ComRes, and Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov, have said telephone polls are more reliable.[7][8][9] ICM has said "as good a guess as any is that the right answer lies somewhere in between".[10] A joint study by Populus and Number Cruncher Politics in March 2016 concluded that telephone polls were likely to better reflect the state of public opinion on the issue.[11]

The results of the Referendum, as with the results of the 2015 General Election, show that there is still a problem with the polling methodology. Overall, however, online polls seem to have had a better performance than phone polls. Online polls, on average, predicted a "leave" win with a 1.2% margin, whereas phone polls had "remain" win with a 2.6% margin.[12]

Polls of polls

Several different groups have calculated polls of polls, which collect and average the results of opinion polls across different companies. They have different methodologies; for example, some give more weight to recent polls than others, some deal with undecided voters differently, and some attempt to adjust for the consistent gap between telephone and online polling. As a result, the polls of polls give a spread of results.

Conducted by To date Remain Leave Undecided Lead Notes
What UK Thinks: EU[13] 23 June 52% 48% N/A 4% Six most recent polls.
Elections Etc.[14] 23 June 50.6% 49.4% N/A 1.2% Twelve most recent polls. Telephone polls are adjusted in favour of Leave and online polls in favour of Remain.
HuffPost Pollster[15] 23 June 45.8% 45.3% 9% 0.5%
Number Cruncher Politics[16] 22 June 46% 44% 10% 2% Equal weighting to phone and online polls.
Financial Times[17] 23 June 48% 46% 6% 2% Five most recent polls.[18]
The Telegraph[19] 22 June 51% 49% N/A 2% Six most recent polls.
The Economist[20] 23 June 44% 44% 9% 0% Excludes polls with fewer than 900 participants.

Standard polling on EU membership

This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.

The tables show polling on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. Polling generally weights the sample to be nationally representative. Polls were usually conducted within Great Britain, with Northern Ireland and Gibraltar normally omitted from the sample.[21] This has historically been the case in British opinion polling because Northern Ireland has a different set of political parties from the rest of the UK, reflecting the political divide between unionism and nationalism or republicanism.[21] Similarly, Gibraltar was not included in standard polls because it has its own local legislature and does not take part in British parliamentary elections, although Gibraltar does take part in elections to the European Parliament and took part in the referendum.

Most of the polls shown here were carried out by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) who fully disclose their findings, methodology and the client who commissioned the poll.[22] As non-members, Qriously, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, Pew Research Center and Lord Ashcroft Polls are not bound by the standards of the BPC,[23] and their polls should be treated with caution.[24]

The percentages who "would not vote" or who refused to answer are not shown below, although some pollsters have excluded these in any case.

2016

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Undecided Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
23 June 2016 48.1% 51.9% N/A 3.78% 33,577,342 Results of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016 UK-wide referendum
22 June 55% 45% N/A 10% 4,700 Populus Online
20–22 June 51% 49% N/A 2% 3,766 YouGov Online Includes Northern Ireland (turnout weighted)
20–22 June 49% 46% 1% 3% 1,592 Ipsos MORI Telephone
20–22 June 44% 45% 9% 1% 3,011 Opinium Online
17–22 June 54% 46% N/A 8% 1,032 ComRes Telephone Those expressing a voting intention (turnout weighted)
48% 42% 11% 6% All UK adults (turnout weighted)
16–22 June 41% 43% 16% 2% 2,320 TNS Online
20 June 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,003 Survation/IG Group Telephone
18–19 June 42% 44% 13% 2% 1,652 YouGov Online
16–19 June 53% 46% 2% 7% 800 ORB/Telegraph Telephone Definite voters only
17–18 June 45% 42% 13% 3% 1,004 Survation Telephone
16–17 June 44% 43% 9% 1% 1,694 YouGov Online
14–17 June 44% 44% 12% N/A 2,006 Opinium Online Most fieldwork conducted before the death of Jo Cox.
16 June All official campaigning suspended until 19 June after the fatal shooting of Jo Cox MP.[25]
15–16 June 42% 44% 9% 2% 1,734 YouGov Online
15 June 42% 45% 13% 3% 1,104 Survation Telephone
10–15 June 53% 47% N/A 6% 1,064 BMG Research Telephone Assumes "Don't knows" will break 2:1 in favour of Remain
45% 55% 10% 1,468 Online Excluding "Don't knows"
11–14 June 43% 49% 3% 6% 1,257 Ipsos MORI Telephone
12–13 June 39% 46% 15% 7% 1,905 YouGov Online
10–13 June 45% 50% 5% 5% 1,000 ICM Telephone Final ICM polls.[26] Only include those "definite" to vote. Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology
44% 49% 7% 5% 2,001 Online
9–13 June 46% 45% 9% 1% 1,002 ComRes Telephone
7–13 June 40% 47% 13% 7% 2,497 TNS Online
9–12 June 48% 49% 3% 1% 800 ORB Telephone Measures only those "definite" to vote
16 May–12 June 53% 47% N/A 6% N/A NATCEN Online/Telephone Primarily online, those who failed to respond were followed up by phone
9–10 June 42% 43% 11% 1% 1,671 YouGov Online
7–10 June 44% 42% 13% 2% 2,009 Opinium Online
8–9 June 45% 55% N/A 10% 2,052 ORB Online Weighted according to "definite" voters
5–6 June 43% 42% 11% 1% 2,001 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
3–5 June 43% 48% 9% 5% 2,047 ICM Online
2–5 June 48%47%5% 1% 800 ORB Telephone Weighted according to "definite" to vote
1–3 June 41% 45% 11% 4% 3,405 YouGov Online
31 May–3 June 43% 41% 16% 2% 2,007 Opinium Online Weighted by new methodology[27]
40% 43% 16% 3% Weighted by previous methodology[28]
30–31 May 41% 41% 13% N/A 1,735 YouGov Online
27–29 May 42% 45% 15% 3% 1,004 ICM Telephone Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology
44% 47% 9% 3% 2,052 Online
25–29 May 51% 46% 3% 5% 800 ORB Telephone
20–25 May 44% 45% 12% 1% 1,638 BMG Research Online
24 May 44% 38% 18% 6% 1,013 Survation Telephone
23–24 May 41% 41% 13% N/A 1,756 YouGov Online
19–23 May 41% 43% 16% 2% 1,213 TNS Online
20–22 May 45% 45% 10% N/A 2,003 ICM Online
18–22 May 55% 42% 3% 13% 800 ORB Telephone Poll was said to reflect the private polling conducted for the government[29]
17–19 May 44% 40% 14% 4% 2,008 Opinium Online
16–17 May 44% 40% 12% 4% 1,648 YouGov Online
14–17 May 52% 41% 7% 11% 1,000 ComRes Telephone
14–16 May 55% 37% 5% 18% 1,002 Ipsos MORI Telephone
13–15 May 47% 39% 14% 8% 1,002 ICM Telephone Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology
43% 47% 10% 4% 2,048 Online
11–15 May 55% 40% 5% 15% 800 ORB Telephone
10–12 May 38% 41% 21% 3% 1,222 TNS Online
29 Apr–12 May 36% 39% 22% 3% 996 YouGov Telephone
29 Apr–12 May 38% 40% 16% 2% 1,973 YouGov Online
6–8 May 44% 46% 11% 2% 2,005 ICM Online
4–6 May 42% 40% 13% 2% 3,378 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
29 Apr–3 May 44% 45% 11% 1% 2,040 ICM Online
27–29 Apr 43% 46% 11% 3% 2,029 ICM Online
26–29 Apr 42% 41% 14% 1% 2,005 Opinium Online 24% of respondents preferred not to say; the stated percentages are of the other 76%
27–29 Apr 49% 51% N/A 2% 2,000 ORB Online
26–28 Apr 39% 36% 26% 3% 1,221 TNS Online
25–26 Apr 41% 42% 13% 1% 1,650 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
25–26 Apr 45% 38% 17% 7% 1,003 Survation Telephone
22–26 Apr 43% 45% 13% 2% 2,001 BMG Research Online
22–24 Apr 44% 46% 10% 2% 2,001 ICM Online
20–24 Apr 51% 43% 6% 8% 800 ORB Telephone
16–19 Apr 51% 40% 9% 9% 1,002 ComRes Telephone
16–18 Apr 49% 39% 8% 10% 1,026 Ipsos MORI Telephone
15–17 Apr 48% 41% 11% 7% 1,003 ICM Telephone Paired telephone/online polls by otherwise identical methodology
43% 44% 13% 1% 2,008 Online
13–17 Apr 53% 41% 6% 12% 800 ORB Telephone
15 April The EU referendum campaign officially begins.[30]
12–14 Apr 38% 34% 28% 4% 1,198TNS Online
12–14 Apr 40% 39% 16% 1% 3,371 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
11–12 Apr 39% 39% 17% N/A 1,693 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
7–11 Apr 35% 35% 30% N/A 1,198 TNS Online
8–10 Apr 45% 38% 17% 7% 1,002 ComRes Telephone
8–10 Apr 42% 45% 12% 3% 2,030 ICM Online
7 April HM Government starts sending a pro-Remain pamphlet to 27 million UK households and begins a pro-Remain digital advertising campaign.[31][32]
6–7 Apr 40% 38% 16% 2% 1,612 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
29 Mar–4 Apr 39% 38% 18% 1% 3,754 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
1–3 Apr 44% 43% 13% 1% 2,007 ICM Online
29 Mar–3 Apr 51% 44% 5% 7% 800 ORB Telephone
29 Mar–1 Apr 39% 43% 18% 4% 1,966 Opinium Online
24–29 Mar 35% 35% 30% N/A 1,193 TNS Online
24–29 Mar 41% 45% 14% 4% 1,518 BMG Research Online Includes Northern Ireland
24–28 Mar 51% 49% N/A 2% 2,002 ORB Online
22–24 Mar 45% 43% 12% 2% 1,970 ICM Online Original poll is no longer available on ICM Unlimted
19–22 Mar 49% 41% 10% 8% 1,023 Ipsos MORI Telephone
17–22 Mar 40% 37% 19% 3% 1,688 YouGov Online Remainder "won't vote"
18–20 Mar 48% 41% 11% 7% 1,002 ComRes Telephone
18–20 Mar 41% 43% 17% 2% 2,000 ICM Online
17–19 Mar 46% 35% 19% 11% 1,006 Survation Telephone Includes Northern Ireland
11–14 Mar 47% 49% 4% 2% 823 ORB Telephone
11–13 Mar 43% 41% 16% 2% 2,031 ICM Online
4–11 Mar 45% 40% 16% 5% 2,282 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Online
2–10 Mar 48% 45% 7% 3% 4,047 Populus/Number Cruncher Politics Online
4–6 Mar 49% 35% 15% 14% 966 Populus/Number Cruncher Politics Telephone
4–6 Mar 40% 41% 19% 1% 2,051 ICM Online
2–3 Mar 40% 37% 18% 3% 1,695 YouGov Online
1–2 Mar 40% 35% 19% 5% 1,705 YouGov Online
29 Feb–1 Mar 39% 37% 19% 2% 2,233 YouGov Online
26–29 Feb 41% 41% 18% N/A 2,003 ICM Online
26–28 Feb 39% 45% 18% 6% 2,071 Populus/Number Cruncher Politics Online
26–28 Feb 48% 37% 15% 11% 1,002 Populus/Number Cruncher Politics Telephone
24–25 Feb 48% 52% N/A 4% 2,014 ORB Online
21–23 Feb 37% 38% 25% 1% 3,482 YouGov Online
20 Feb David Cameron announces the date of UK's In/Out EU referendum after an EU summit in Brussels.[33]
17–23 Feb 38% 36% 25% 2% 1,517 BMG Research Online Includes Northern Ireland
19–22 Feb 42% 40% 17% 2% 2,021 ICM Online
19–22 Feb 51% 39% 10% 12% 1,000 ComRes Telephone
13–20 Feb 45% 32% 23% 13% 938 Survation Telephone
18–19 Feb 40% 41% 19% 1% 1,033 Opinium Online Conducted before the conclusion of the negotiations; exact time frame was not communicated
13–16 Feb 54% 36% 10% 18% 497 Ipsos MORI Telephone
11–15 Feb 36% 39% 25% 3% 1,079 TNS Online
12–14 Feb 43% 39% 18% 4% 2,001 ICM Online Original poll is no longer available on ICM Unlimted
11–14 Feb 49% 41% 10% 8% 1,105 ComRes Telephone
5–7 Feb 41% 42% 17% 1% 2,018 ICM Online
3–4 Feb 36% 45% 19% 9% 1,675 YouGov/The Times Online
29–31 Jan 42% 39% 19% 3% 2,002 ICM Online
27–28 Jan 38% 42% 20% 4% 1,735 YouGov Online
23–25 Jan 55% 36% 9% 19% 513 Ipsos MORI Telephone
21–25 Jan 44% 42% 14% 2% 1,511 BMG Research Online Includes Northern Ireland
22–24 Jan 54% 36% 10% 18% 1,006 ComRes Telephone
22–24 Jan 41% 41% 18% N/A 2,010 ICM Online
20–21 Jan 52% 48% N/A 4% 2,015 ORB Online
15–17 Jan 42% 40% 17% 2% 2,023 ICM Online
15–16 Jan 38% 40% 22% 2% 1,017 Survation Online Includes Northern Ireland
8–14 Jan 42% 45% 12% 3% 2,087 Panelbase Online
8–10 Jan 44% 38% 18% 6% 2,055 ICM Online

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Sub-national polling

England

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by
23 June 2016 46.6% 53.4% N/A 28,455,402 England Results
9–16 September 2015 40% 43% 17% 1,712 YouGov

England and Wales

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by
23 June 2016 46.7% 53.3% N/A 30,082,121 Results
26 June – 3 July 2015 42% 43% 15% 956 Panelbase/Sunday Times

London

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by
23 June 2016 59.9% 40.1% N/A 3,776,751 London Results
2–6 June 2016 48% 35% 13% 1,179 YouGov
26 April – 1 May 2016 51% 34% 14% 1,005 Opinium/Evening Standard
4–6 January 2016 39% 34% 27% 1,156 YouGov/LBC
17–19 November 2014 45% 37% 14% 1,124 YouGov/Evening Standard
20–25 June 2013 41% 39% 20% 1,269 YouGov/Evening Standard

Scotland

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by
23 June 2016 62.0% 38.0% N/A 2,679,513 Scotland Results
6–12 Jun 201658%33% 8% 1,000 Ipsos Mori/STV
4–22 May 201653%24% 23% 1,008 TNS
6–10 May 201654%32% 14% 1,000 ICM/The Scotsman
1–2 May 201658%19% 19% 1,024 Survation/Daily Record
23–28 April 2016 57% 33% 11% 1,074 Panelbase/Sunday Times
18–25 April 2016 66% 29% 5% 1,015 Ipsos MORI/STV
1–24 April 2016 48% 21% 31% 1,012 TNS
15–20 April 2016 54% 28% 17% 1,005 Survation/Daily Record
11–15 April 2016 55% 35% 9% 1,013 BMG Research/Herald
6–15 April 2016 55% 33% 12% 1,021 Panelbase/Sunday Times
2–22 March 2016 51% 19% 29% 1,051 TNS
10–17 March 2016 53% 29% 17% 1,051 Survation/Daily Record
7–9 March 2016 48% 31% 21% 1,070 YouGov
11–16 February 2016 52% 27% 21% 951 Survation
1–7 February 2016 62% 26% 12% 1,000 Ipsos MORI
1–4 February 2016 55% 28% 18% 1,022 YouGov/The Times
6–25 January 2016 44% 21% 29% 1,016 TNS
8–14 January 2016 54% 30% 16% 1,053 Panelbase/Sunday Times
8–12 January 2016 52% 27% 21% 1,029 Survation/Daily Record
9–16 November 2015 65% 22% 13% 1,029 Ipsos MORI
9–13 October 2015 51% 31% 17% 1,026 YouGov/Times
9–30 September 2015 47% 18% 29% 1,037 TNS
22–27 September 2015 55% 30% 15% 1,004 YouGov
7–10 September 2015 51% 29% 20% 975 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail
26 June – 3 July 2015 55% 29% 16% 1,002 Panelbase/Sunday Times
3–7 July 2015 51% 26% 23% 1,045 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail
13–30 May 2015 49% 19% 26% 1,031 TNS BMRB
19–21 May 2015 54% 25% 21% 1,001 YouGov/Sunday Post
29 January – 2 February 2015 52% 29% 17% 1,001 YouGov/The Times
9–14 January 2015 42% 37% 21% 1,007 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland
6–13 November 2014 47% 35% 18% 1,001 Survation/Daily Record
30 October − 5 November 2014 41% 38% 19% 1,000 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland
4–9 February 2013 54% 33% 13% 1,003 Ipsos MORI/The Times

Wales

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by
23 June 2016 47.5% 52.5% N/A 1,626,719 Wales Results
30 May – 2 June 2016 41% 41% 18% 1,017 YouGov
7–11 April 2016 38% 39% 16% 1,011 YouGov
9–11 February 2016 37% 45% 18% 1,024 YouGov
21–24 September 2015 42% 38% 21% 1,010 YouGov
4–6 May 2015 47% 33% 16% 1,202 YouGov/ITV Wales
24–27 March 2015 44% 38% 14% 1,189 YouGov/ITV Wales
5–9 March 2015 43% 36% 17% 1,279 YouGov/ITV Wales
19–26 February 2015 63% 33% 4% 1,000 ICM/BBC
19–21 January 2015 44% 36% 16% 1,036 YouGov/ITV Wales
2–5 December 2014 42% 39% 15% 1,131 YouGov/ITV Wales
8–11 September 2014 43% 37% 15% 1,025 YouGov/ITV Wales
26 June – 1 July 2014 41% 36% 18% 1,035 YouGov/ITV Wales
21–24 February 2014 54% 40% 6% 1,000 ICM/BBC
14–25 June 2013 29% 37% 35% 1,015 Beaufort Research

Northern Ireland

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by Notes
23 June 2016 55.8% 44.2% N/A 790,149Northern Ireland Results
Late June 2016 37% 26% NA Over 1,000 Belfast Telegraph / IPSOS MORI
17–19 May 2016 57% 35% 9% 1,090 Lucid Talk
May 2016 44% 20% 35% 1,005 Ipsos MORI Question phrased differently.
19–21 October 2015 56.5% 28.3% 15.2% 2,517 Lucid Talk
2–16 October 2015 55% 13% 32% 1,012 BBC/RTÉ

Gibraltar

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by
23 June 2016 95.9% 4.1% N/A 20,145Gibraltar Results
13–15 May 2016 94% 2% 4% 596 Gibraltar Chronicle
11–15 April 2016 88% 8% 3% 596 Gibraltar Chronicle

Renegotiated terms

The UK government renegotiated certain terms of the UK's membership of the European Union before the referendum was held.[35] Prior to the renegotiation in February 2016, some opinion polls asked the referendum question on the assumption that the UK government would say that it was satisfied with the outcome of the renegotiation.[36]

Date(s) conducted Remain Leave Unsure Sample Held by Notes
1–2 June 2015 55% 24% 18% 1,063 YouGov/Prospect Northern Ireland not sampled
8–9 May 2015 58% 24% 16% 1,302 YouGov/Sunday Times Northern Ireland not sampled
3–4 May 2015 56% 20% 20% 1,664 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
19–20 April 2015 57% 22% 17% 2,078 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
22–23 March 2015 57% 22% 18% 1,641 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
22–23 February 2015 57% 21% 17% 1,772 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
25–26 January 2015 54% 25% 16% 1,656 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
18–19 January 2015 57% 21% 19% 1,747 YouGov/British Influence Northern Ireland not sampled
14–15 Dec 2014 55% 24% 16% 1,648 YouGov/The Sun
30 Nov – 1 December 2014 55% 25% 17% 1,763 YouGov/The Sun
17–19 November 2014 58% 25% 13% 1,124 YouGov / The Evening Standard
16–17 November 2014 58% 24% 14% 1,589 YouGov / The Sun
4–7 November 2014 40% 43% 17% 1,707 Opinium/The Observer
2–3 November 2014 52% 27% 15% 1,652 YouGov / The Sun
19–20 October 2014 55% 24% 17% 1,727 YouGov / The Sun
21–22 September 2014 54% 25% 16% 1,671 YouGov / The Sun
25–26 August 2014 54% 26% 16% 2,021 YouGov / The Sun
10–11 August 2014 54% 23% 18% 1,676 YouGov / The Sun
13–14 July 2014 52% 25% 19% 1,745 YouGov / The Sun
29–30 June 2014 54% 23% 17% 1,729 YouGov / The Sun
15–16 June 2014 57% 22% 16% 1,696 YouGov / The Sun
18–19 May 2014 53% 24% 18% 1,740 YouGov Northern Ireland not sampled
24–25 April 2014 50% 26% 18% 1,835 YouGov/Sunday Times Northern Ireland not sampled
21–22 April 2014 52% 26% 18% 2,190 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
23–24 March 2014 54% 25% 17% 2,190 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
9–10 March 2014 52% 27% 16% 3,195 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
9–10 February 2014 47% 27% 18% 1,685 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
12–13 January 2014 48% 29% 18% 1,762 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
12–13 May 2013 45% 33% 19% 1,748 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
9–10 May 2013 45% 32% 20% 1,945 YouGov/Sunday Times Northern Ireland not sampled
7–8 April 2013 46% 31% 17% 1,765 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled
17–18 February 2013 52% 28% 14% 1,713 YouGov/The Sun Northern Ireland not sampled

Polling within professional groups

Business leaders

The British Chambers of Commerce surveyed 2,200 business leaders in January and February 2016. Of these, 60% supported remaining in the EU and 30% supported exit. In a further poll published in May, these numbers had changed to 54% and 37% respectively.[37][38]

The Confederation of British Industry reported a survey of 773 of its members, carried out by ComRes. With numbers adjusted to reflect CBI membership, the poll indicated that 80% of CBI members saw a "remain" outcome as the best outcome for their business, with 5% seeing "leave" as the best outcome.[39][40][41]

In a poll of 350 board directors of UK businesses, published in June 2015, 82% agreed with the statement that "the UK's membership of the EU is good for British businesses", while 12% disagreed.[42][43] In a follow-up poll reported in March 2016, 63% agreed that "British businesses are better off inside the European Union than out of it" while 20% disagreed.[43][44] To the statement, "An EU exit risks stifling British business growth," 59% agreed and 30% disagreed. To the statement, "Our membership of the EU gives British businesses invaluable access to European markets," 71% agreed and 16% disagreed. Thirty-five per cent agreed that "An EU exit would leave British businesses facing a skills shortage" while 50% disagreed.[44]

The manufacturers' organisation EEF used the market research organisation GfK to conduct a survey in late 2015 of 500 senior decision-makers in manufacturing organisations. Of these, 63% wanted the UK to stay in the EU, and 5% wanted it to leave. Three percent said there was no advantage to their businesses for the UK to be in the EU, against 50% who said it was important and a further 20% who said it was critical for their business.[45][46]

Two surveys by consultants Deloitte asked 120 Chief Financial Officers of large UK companies "whether it is in the interests of UK businesses for the UK to remain a member of the EU." In the first survey, in the final quarter of 2015, 62% agreed while 6% disagreed. A further 28% said they would withhold their judgement until the renegotiation in February 2016. The second survey, in early 2016, had 75% saying it was in the interest of UK businesses to remain, with 8% saying it was not.[47][48]

In April 2016, the International Chamber of Commerce published a survey of 226 businesses from 27 different countries. Of these international businesses, 46% said they would reduce investment in the UK if it left the EU, while 1% said Brexit would increase their investment in the UK. As to whether the UK should leave the EU, 8% thought it should, while 86% wanted the UK to remain.[49][50][51]

In May 2016, law firm King & Wood Mallesons published a survey of 300 businesses, equally split between France, Spain, Italy, and Germany. Asked about the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, 68% said it would adversely affect their businesses and 62% said they would be less likely to do business in the UK. When asked to name ways in which their businesses could benefit from Brexit, a majority of respondents in France, Italy, and Spain said that their countries could benefit as companies move jobs out of the UK.[52][53]

Scientists

In March 2016, Nature reported a survey of 907 active science researchers based in the UK. Of these, 78% said exit from the EU would be "somewhat harmful" or "very harmful" for UK science, with 9% saying it would be "somewhat beneficial" or "very beneficial". Asked, "Should the UK exit the EU or remain?" 83% chose "remain" and 12% "exit".[54] The journal also surveyed a further 954 scientists based in the EU but outside the UK. Of these, 47% said the UK's exit would be "harmful" or "very harmful" for science in the EU, with 11.5% choosing "beneficial" or "very beneficial".[54]

Lawyers

Legal Week surveyed almost 350 partners in legal firms. Of these, 77% said that a UK exit from the EU would have a "negative" or "very negative" effect on the City's position in global financial markets, with 6.2% predicting a "positive" effect. Asked about the effect on their own firms, 59% of the partners predicted a "quite adverse" or "very adverse" effect, while 13% said the effect would be "quite positive" or "very positive".[55]

Economists

The Financial Times surveyed 105 economists about how an exit from the EU would affect their views of the UK's prospects, publishing the results in January 2016. In the medium term, 76 respondents (72%) said the UK's prospects would be worse, 8 (7.6%) said they would be better, and 18 (17%) predicted no difference.[56]

Ipsos MORI surveyed members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists for The Observer, with 639 responses. Over the next five years, 88% said that Brexit would have a negative effect on GDP, 7% said it would have no impact, and 3% said there would it would have a positive impact, while 82% said it would have a negative effect on household incomes, 9% said it would have no impact, and 7% said it would have a positive effect. Over ten to twenty years, 72% said it would have a negative effect on GDP, 11% said it would have no impact and 11% said it would have a positive effect, while 73% said it would have a negative effect on household income, 13% said it would have no impact, and 10% said it would have a positive effect.[57][58]

Other opinion polling

In a poll released in December 2015, Lord Ashcroft asked 20,000 people in the UK to place themselves on a scale of 0–100 of how likely they were vote to remain or leave. A total of 47% placed themselves in the "leave" end of the scale, 38% in the "remain" end and 14% were completely undecided.[59][60]

On British withdrawal

Ashcroft polling

In early 2016, Lord Ashcroft polled individuals in each of the other European Union member states to gauge opinion on whether they thought the United Kingdom should leave the EU, whether they thought the UK should remain a member or whether they believed it didn't matter. All member states said that they wanted the UK to remain a member, except Cyprus, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, with Lithuania being most in favour, at 78% voting for the UK to remain in the EU.[64]

Country Remain Doesn't matter Leave
 Austria 41% 41% 19%
 Belgium 49% 38% 13%
 Bulgaria 67% 27% 7%
 Croatia 49% 41% 10%
 Cyprus 35% 45% 19%
 Czech Republic 40% 47% 13%
 Denmark 56% 31% 13%
 Estonia 65% 28% 8%
 Finland 50% 39% 11%
 France 50% 32% 18%
 Germany 59% 30% 11%
 Greece 50% 35% 15%
 Hungary 64% 30% 7%
 Ireland 72% 18% 10%
 Italy 67% 24% 9%
 Latvia 58% 33% 9%
 Lithuania 78% 16% 6%
 Luxembourg 55% 21% 24%
 Malta 76% 18% 6%
 Netherlands 49% 42% 10%
 Poland 67% 27% 6%
 Portugal 74% 20% 7%
 Romania 70% 26% 4%
 Slovakia 61% 32% 7%
 Slovenia 43% 49% 8%
 Spain 70% 24% 6%
 Sweden 56% 33% 12%
 EU27 60% 30% 10%

Additionally, Ashcroft asked the same group of people whether they would be happy for Britain to remain in the European Union to renegotiated terms or whether they thought the UK should leave if they don't like their current terms of membership. Newer countries to the European Union, countries which have joined the Union since 2004, were the biggest supporters: 52% supported the renegotiated position, compared to just 40% of respondents from EU members who joined before 2004.[64]

Country Remain Leave
 Austria 24% 76%
 Belgium 34% 66%
 Bulgaria 52% 48%
 Croatia 36% 64%
 Cyprus 33% 67%
 Czech Republic 42% 58%
 Denmark 51% 49%
 Estonia 44% 56%
 Finland 30% 70%
 France 36% 64%
 Germany 35% 65%
 Greece 39% 61%
 Hungary 61% 39%
 Ireland 54% 46%
 Italy 50% 50%
 Latvia 49% 51%
 Lithuania 64% 36%
 Luxembourg 26% 74%
 Malta 69% 31%
 Netherlands 37% 63%
 Poland 52% 48%
 Portugal 61% 39%
 Romania 59% 41%
 Slovakia 47% 53%
 Slovenia 29% 71%
 Spain 43% 57%
 Sweden 37% 63%
 EU27 43% 57%

ICM polling

An ICM online poll of 1,000 adults in each of nine European countries in November 2015 found an average of 53% in favour of the UK's remaining in the EU.[65]

Country Remain Leave
 Denmark 46% 24%
 Finland 49% 19%
 France 51% 22%
 Germany 55% 19%
 Italy 63% 20%
 Norway 34% 27%
 Portugal 74% 8%
 Spain 69% 11%
 Sweden 43% 26%

On the possible withdrawal of other countries

See also

References

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  2. ↑ John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at NatCen and Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University (October 2015). "Britain divided? Who supports and who opposes EU membership" (PDF). Economic and Social Research Council.
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  5. ↑ Cook, Chris (30 March 2016). "How to read the EU referendum opinion polls". BBC News. Retrieved 2016-05-14.
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External links

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