Andalusian parliamentary election, 2008
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Most voted party by province.
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The 2008 Andalusian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 9 March 2008, to elect the 8th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2008 Spanish general election.
Incumbent President Manuel Chaves from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) was re-elected for a sixth term in office with a slightly reduced majority. Final results showed a major breakthrough by the People's Party (PP–A), which gained 10 seats from 37 to 47 and scored its best result in the community at the time. United Left (IULV–CA) remained stagnant with 6 seasts, whereas the Andalusian Party (PA) suffered a major drop in support and failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time.
Electoral system
The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected in 8 multi-member districts, corresponding to Andalusia's eight provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 8 seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations, on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed 2 times those of any other. For the 2008 election, seats were distributed as follows: Almeria (12), Cadiz (15), Cordoba (12), Granada (13), Huelva (11), Jaen (12), Malaga (16) and Seville (18).
Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.[1][2]
Background
With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.
Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new Prime Minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.
The province of Almeria, due to a growth in population over both the total of Andalusia and the previous elections in 2004, won a seat for a total of 12 to the loss of Cordoba, which also remained at 12.
Opinion polls
Vote
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.
Date | Polling Firm/Source | PSOE | PP | IU | PA | Oth. | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 Mar 2008 | Regional Election | 48.4 | 38.5 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 9.9 | |
9 Mar | TNS-Demoscopia | 47.0 | 33.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 13.7 | |
Exit polls | ||||||||
2 Mar | IMC | 48.9 | 39.0 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 9.9 | |
1 Mar | Metroscopia | 48.6 | 37.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 11.4 | ||
21–26 Feb | Sigma-2 | 47.6 | 38.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 9.1 | |
25 Feb | IMC | 49.6 | 38.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 10.9 | |
18–21 Feb | Sigma-2 | 46.8 | 38.4 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 8.4 | |
18 Feb | IMC | 49.4 | 38.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 10.5 | |
11 Feb | IMC | 49.7 | 38.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 11.1 | |
31 Jan–7 Feb | Nexo | 46.9 | 37.3 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 9.6 | |
6 Feb | Opina | 49.0 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 14.0 | |
21 Jan–4 Feb | CIS | 49.2 | 36.8 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 12.4 | |
17–24 Jan | Nexo | 45.2 | 37.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | |
15 Jan | IAC | 45.6 | 39.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 6.3 | |
10 Dec–12 Jan | CADPEA | 48.8 | 34.2 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 14.6 | |
8–10 Jan | TNS-Demoscopia | 46.3 | 37.7 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 8.6 | |
2008 | ||||||||
10 Oct–9 Nov | IESA | 49.1 | 36.7 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 12.4 | |
5–7 Sep | PA | 48.3 | 36.1 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 12.2 | |
11 Jun–9 Jul | CADPEA | 48.9 | 33.6 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 15.3 | |
31 Jan–28 Feb | Nexo | 45.9 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 11.8 | |
21–22 Feb | Opina | 48.0 | 33.0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 15.0 | |
19–22 Feb | Sigma-2 | 47.8 | 36.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 11.5 | |
19–22 Feb | IAC | 45.3 | 37.2 | 17.5 | 8.1 | |||
2007 | ||||||||
17 Dec | ESTIO | 45.1 | 34.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 10.6 | |
15 Dec | IESA | 50.6 | 32.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 17.8 | |
10 Nov–12 Dec | CADPEA | 49.4 | 31.3 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 18.1 | |
20 Jun–16 Jul | CADPEA | 49.5 | 34.7 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 14.8 | |
18–25 May | ESTIO | 47.5 | 34.5 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 13.0 | |
8–11 May | Metroscopia | 46.8 | 38.6 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | |
28 Feb | Sigma-2 | 46.0 | 39.2 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 6.8 | |
26 Feb | Ipsos | 48.8 | 32.6 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 16.2 | |
26 Feb | ESTIO | 48.5 | 34.6 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 13.9 | |
13–15 Feb | Opina | 47.0 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 13.5 | |
6–8 Feb | Nexo | 45.6 | 34.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 11.0 | |
10–17 Jan | Metroscopia | 52.1 | 32.4 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 19.7 | |
2006 | ||||||||
15 Nov–4 Dec | CADPEA | 47.5 | 34.5 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 13.0 | |
14 Nov–3 Dec | IESA | 47.8 | 33.3 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 14.5 | |
23–30 Nov | ESTIO | 48.3 | 33.3 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 15.0 | |
14–15 Nov | Sigma-2 | 47.8 | 37.3 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 10.5 | |
22–29 Sep | Metroscopia[lower-alpha 1] | 50.6 | 29.8 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 20.8 | |
1–22 Jul | CADPEA | 48.1 | 35.3 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 12.8 | |
1–6 Jul | Metroscopia[lower-alpha 1] | 49.5 | 32.8 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 16.7 | |
27 Apr–4 May | Metroscopia[lower-alpha 1] | 52.5 | 31.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 21.3 | |
28 Feb | Ipsos | 50.0 | 29.8 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 20.2 | |
28 Feb | Opina | 51.0 | 32.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 18.5 | |
26 Feb | Insight | 49.5 | 34.8 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 14.7 | |
22 Feb | Nexo | 51.6 | 30.8 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 20.8 | |
15–18 Feb | Sigma-2 | 50.0 | 34.2 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 15.8 | |
15 Jan | IESA | 50.5 | 32.5 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 18.0 | |
2005 | ||||||||
24 Nov–20 Dec | CADPEA | 50.9 | 31.4 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 19.5 | |
15 Nov–3 Dec | IESA | 49.2 | 33.9 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 15.3 | |
20 Nov | Insight | 49.6 | 33.7 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 15.9 | |
13–18 Oct | Synovate | 55.0 | 32.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 23.0 | |
13 Jun 2004 | EP Election | 54.4 | 36.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 18.3 | |
14 Mar 2004 | Regional Election | 50.4 | 31.8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 18.6 |
Seat projections
Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
Date | Polling Firm/Source | PSOE | PP | IU | PA | Others | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 Mar 2008 | Regional Election | 56 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
9 Mar | TNS-Demoscopia | 56−58 | 44−46 | 4−6 | 2−3 | 0 | |
9 Mar | Demométrica | 55−58 | 42−44 | 5−6 | 3−5 | 0 | |
9 Mar | Ipsos-Eco | 58−62 | 42−45 | 4−5 | 0 | 0 | |
Exit polls | |||||||
2 Mar | IMC | 54−58 | 43−47 | 4−6 | 0−3 | 0 | |
1 Mar | Metroscopia | 57−59 | 41−42 | 8 | 1−2 | 0 | |
21–26 Feb | Sigma-2 | 56−58 | 44−47 | 5−7 | 1 | 0 | |
18–21 Feb | Sigma-2 | 55−57 | 45−47 | 6 | 1−2 | 0 | |
31 Jan–7 Feb | Nexo | 54−55 | 42−43 | 8 | 4 | 0 | |
6 Feb | Opina | 56−59 | 44−46 | 5−6 | 1 | 0 | |
21 Jan–4 Feb | CIS | 59 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
17–24 Jan | Nexo | 53−54 | 43−44 | 8 | 4 | 0 | |
15 Jan | IAC | 53−54 | 47−48 | 5−6 | 2−3 | 0 | |
10 Dec–12 Jan | CADPEA | 57−59 | 41−43 | 5−7 | 2−4 | 0 | |
8–10 Jan | TNS-Demoscopia | 56−58 | 46−48 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
2008 | |||||||
5–7 Sep | PA | 55−58 | 40−42 | 5−6 | 5−6 | 0 | |
31 Jan–28 Feb | Nexo | 54−58 | 36−38 | 6−8 | 6−8 | 0 | |
21–22 Feb | Opina | 58−61 | 39−40 | 6−7 | 3−4 | 0 | |
19–22 Feb | Sigma-2 | 55−58 | 43−48 | 5−6 | 1−2 | 0 | |
2007 | |||||||
8–11 May | Metroscopia | 56−57 | 43−44 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
28 Feb | Ipsos | 60−61 | 38−39 | 5−6 | 4−5 | 0 | |
28 Feb | Sigma-2 | 54−59 | 45−50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
13–15 Feb | Opina | 56−57 | 40−41 | 6 | 6 | 0 | |
6–8 Feb | Nexo | 55−57 | 40−42 | 6 | 6 | 0 | |
10–17 Jan | Metroscopia | 62 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
2006 | |||||||
28 Feb | Ipsos | 61 | 35−36 | 6 | 6−7 | 0 | |
28 Feb | Opina | 60 | 38 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
2005 | |||||||
14 Mar 2004 | Regional Election | 61 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
- 1 2 3 This poll only includes data calculated over electorate figures and not over valid votes. Vote estimation has been manually calculated using a rule of three and the data made available by the pollster.
Results
Overall
Party | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | ±pp | Won | +/− | ||
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 2,178,296 | 48.41 | –1.95 | 56 | –5 | |
People's Party (PP–A) | 1,730,154 | 38.45 | +6.67 | 47 | +10 | |
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | 317,562 | 7.06 | –0.45 | 6 | ±0 | |
Andalusian Coalition (CA)[lower-alpha 1] | 124,243 | 2.76 | –5.53 | 0 | –5 |
Parties with less than 1.0% of the vote | 101,438 | 2.25 | — | 0 | ±0 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 27,712 | 0.62 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
The Greens (LV) | 25,886 | 0.58 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Party of Almeria (PdeAL) | 14,806 | 0.33 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Andalusian Convergence (CAnda) | 7,862 | 0.17 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 6,024 | 0.13 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Republican Left (IR) | 4,815 | 0.11 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
Humanist Party (PH) | 3,951 | 0.09 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA) | 2,743 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 2,729 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE–JONS) | 1,763 | 0.04 | –0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) | 1,477 | 0.03 | –0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
Family and Life Party (PFyV) | 890 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Christian Positivist Party (PPCr) | 780 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 |
Blank ballots | 47,920 | 1.06 | –0.33 | |||
Total | 4,499,613 | 100.00 | 109 | ±0 | ||
Valid votes | 4,499,613 | 99.37 | +0.02 | |||
Invalid votes | 28,658 | 0.63 | –0.02 | |||
Votes cast / turnout | 4,528,271 | 72.67 | –1.99 | |||
Abstentions | 1,702,816 | 27.33 | +1.99 | |||
Registered voters | 6,231,087 | |||||
Source: Argos Information Portal | ||||||
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Results by district
District | PSOE–A | PP–A | IULV–CA | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | S | % | S | % | S | |||||
Almería | 39.1 | 5 | 49.3 | 7 | 3.8 | − | ||||
Cádiz | 47.8 | 8 | 38.3 | 6 | 6.6 | 1 | ||||
Córdoba | 46.6 | 6 | 37.9 | 5 | 9.5 | 1 | ||||
Granada | 46.1 | 6 | 42.0 | 6 | 7.3 | 1 | ||||
Huelva | 52.0 | 6 | 35.2 | 4 | 7.6 | 1 | ||||
Jaén | 53.4 | 7 | 36.6 | 5 | 6.1 | − | ||||
Málaga | 43.2 | 7 | 43.6 | 8 | 7.1 | 1 | ||||
Seville | 54.4 | 11 | 31.7 | 6 | 7.3 | 1 | ||||
Total | 48.4 | 56 | 38.5 | 47 | 7.1 | 6 |
Aftermath
Investiture vote
Candidate: Manuel Chaves | |||
---|---|---|---|
Choice | Vote | ||
Parties | Votes | ||
Yes | PSOE–A (56) | 56 / 109 | |
No | PP–A (46), IULV–CA (6) | 52 / 109 | |
Abstentions | 0 / 109 | ||
Absences: PP–A (1) | |||
Source: Historia Electoral |
References
- ↑ "Law 1/1986, of 2 January, electoral of Andalusia".
- ↑ "Statute of Autonomy of Andalusia (2007); Title IV. Chapter I. The Parliament of Andalusia". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-03-28.