Punjab Legislative Assembly election, 2017

Punjab legislative assembly election, 2017
India
January 2017 (2017-01)
All 117 seats to the Vidhan Sabha
59 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Parkash Singh Badal Amarinder Singh TBA
Party SAD + BJP INC AAP
Alliance NDA
Leader since March 2007[1] November 2015[2]
Last election Won (56 + 12) seats, Contested (94 + 23) seats 46 seats Party did not exist
Percentage 34.73% + 7.18% 40.09%
Chief Minister before election

Parkash Singh Badal
SAD + BJP

 Elected Chief Minister

TBA
TBA

Legislative Assembly elections are expected to be held in Punjab in 2017, before the end of the current tenure of the Punjab Legislative Assembly. The current ruling coalition is Shiromani Akali Dal - Bharatiya Janata Party alliance[3][4] led by Parkash Singh Badal.

Background

Electoral process changes

In April 2016, the Election Commission of India revealed about 8 lakh bogus votes of state being cancelled in the past one year and over 7 lakh youngsters who have attained the age of 18 this year were yet to get registered. One constituency in every district will be chosen for trial run of Voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines used along with EVMs.[5] Election Commission also decided to set up new polling stations if the number of voters was more than 1200 in rural areas and 1400 in urban areas.[6]

Political developments

The 2014 general election was held in Punjab for 13 parliamentary constituencies. Shiromani Akali Dal and Aam Aadmi Party won 4 seats each, Congress won 3, and 2 constituencies elected Bharatiya Janata Party candidates. The first-time contesting Aam Aadmi Party won from 34 of the total 117 assembly segments, coming second in 7, third in 73 and fourth in the rest 3 segments.[7] Wherever it trailed the major parties its vote share was mostly bigger than the margin of victory of the winning candidate, turning forthcoming elections into three-cornered contests.[8]

Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party

The previous election, held in 2012, resulted in a majority of seats being won by ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party and Parkash Singh Badal became Chief Minister of Punjab.

Aam Aadmi Party

In December 2015, Aam Aadmi Party declared that it would contest the Legislative Assembly elections in 2017.[9]

Indian National Congress

The Congress will take part in the elections under the leadership of Amarinder Singh, and the party has hired poll strategist Prashant Kishor for campaigning.[10][11]

Bahujan Samaj Party

The BSP being the fourth largest party in Punjab after improving its vote share in 2012 elections[12] started preparations for 2017 early by launching Punjab Bachao Abhiyaan from 1 November 2014.[13] In 2012, BSP came second from Balachaur Vidhan sabha seat with 21943 votes.[14] On 15 March 2016, Mayawati during a mega-rally in Nawanshahr on the birth anniversary of BSP founder Kanshi Ram in Punjab attacked SAD-BJP government as 'anti-Dalit' and Arvind Kejriwal as a “baniya” who had “always worked against Dalit and Scheduled Caste people” before he became Delhi CM.[15] Mayawati also declared that BSP will contest Punjab 2017 elections on its own in all 117 seats.[16][17] BSP declared that it will root out the drug menace from the state within a month of coming to power in Punjab.[18] In 9 June 2016, BSP national president Mayawati supported the film on Punjab drug abuse Udta Punjab, saying there is 'nothing wrong' in it.[19] In May 2016, BSP launched Pind Pind Chalo, Ghar Ghar Chalo campaign, a door-to-door driveto cover 29 million people across 550,000 households with Punjab Bachao, BSP laao (Save Punjab, elect BSP) as its main slogan as well as the overall theme of the campaign.[20] BSP formed 65 teams for around 15,000 big and small rallies as well as seminars to be conducted in the state. Party also announced 10 percent reservation for the poor upper castes if BSP government comes to power in Punjab.[21] BSP Punjab unit started social media campaigning[22] and also visited NRIs for support in Vienna,[23] Europe and North America.[24] On 16 May 2016, Ambedkar Sena Punjab merged with BSP.[25] Gurmel Chander, former president of The SC & BC teachers employees Union, joined BSP on 25 August.[26] On 25 September 2016, BSP announced list of nine candidates for 2017 Punjab assembly elections.[27] On 25 September 2016, Avtar Singh Karimpuri was replaced with Rashpal Singh Raju as BSP Punjab state President as former was declared Vidhan Sabha candidate from Phillaur.[28][29] Karimpuri’s entry in Phillaur constituency spiced up political battle in the seat.[30] Karimpuri said that the Punjab congress does not want an alliance with the BSP, rather its agenda was to wipe out BSP from Punjab in the 2017 assembly elections.[31] New BSP President Rashpal Raju announced Mega-rally in Phagwara on 9 October Parinirvana divas of BSP founder Kanshi Ram.[32] At this rally Avtar Singh Karimpuri and Dr Megh Raj attacked Shiromani Akali Dal and Congress as Anti-Sikh parties.[33]

Aawaaz-e-Punjab

This is the new party formed by Navjot Singh Siddhu and others. It is expected to give strong competition to the other parties.

Election issues

There are several election issues like unemployment & lack of skills, farmers' crises, continually failing economy, sifarish (patronage & influence peddling & nepotism), unbridled crime and the role of goons in day-to-day matters of the citizen,[34] road rage & accidents,[35] Atrocities against Dalits[36][37][38] and dalit land issues in Sangrur area,[39][40] the 1984 anti-Sikh riots[41] and the supply of drugs & addiction to them.[42][43][44] Punjabi Non-resident Indians (NRIs) play a major role in elections.[45]

Caste and religion data

As per the 2011 census, 57.69% of the state's population follows Sikhism, making Punjab the only Sikh majority state in India.[46] Hindus form 38.5% of the population, while Muslims, 1.93%; Christians, 1.3%; Buddhists, 0.12%; and Jains, 0.16%.[47] Dalits (Scheduled Castes) constitute 31.94% of the population, the highest percentage amongst all the states.[48] Other Backward Classes (OBCs) like -Sainis, Sunar,[49] Kambojs, Labanas, Tarkhans/Ramgarhias, Gurjars, Kumhars/Prajapatis, Telis, Banjaras, Lohars[50][51] constitute 20%- 25% of the population.[52][53] Jat-Sikhs comprise 21% of the population [54] while other forward castes (general category) - Brahmins, Khatris/Bhapas, Bania, Thakurs/Rajputs constitute around 20%. As of 2016, Government of India has not publicly released Socio Economic and Caste Census 2011 caste population data for every single non-SC/ST castes (General castes, OBC/EBCs) in India.[55][56][57][58][59]

Population by faith in Punjab, India (2011)

  Sikh (58%)
  Hindu (38.5%)
  Muslim (1.9%)
  Christian (1.3%)
  Others and non - religious (0.60%)
Castes of Punjab
Caste Population (%) Notes
OBC 22%[60] includes Sainis, Kambojs, Lobanas, Tarkhans/Ramgarhias, Kumhars/Prajapatis, Gurjars, Telis, Banjaras, Lohars[61]
Scheduled Castes (Dalits) 31.94%[62] includes Mazhabi Sikhs - 10%, Chamars/Ad-Dharmis - 13.1%, Balmikis/Bhanghi - 3.5%, Bazigar - 1.05%, Others - 4%[63]
Forward caste 41% includes Jat Sikhs - 21%,[64] Brahmins, Khatris/Bhapas, Bania, Thakurs/Rajputs
Others 3.8%[65] includes Muslims, Christians, Buddhists, Jains

Schedule

Elections will most probably be held in January 2017, to select the 117 members of the Punjab Legislative Assembly. Consequently, the results of the election are likely to be announced in March 2017.

Opinion polls

Polling firm/Link Date SAD-BJP INC AAP
Axis - India Today [66] Oct 2016 17-21 (19) 49-55 (52) 42-46 (44)
TV24 India [67] August 2016 20-25 (22) 27-35 (31) 70-80 (75)
HuffPost-C Voter [68] March 2016 06-12 (09) 08-14 (11) 94-100 (97)
Polls Average 17 31 72

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Badal to be next Punjab CM: Sukhbir". economictimes.indiatimes.com. 27 February 2007. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  2. ↑ "Captain Amarinder Singh named Punjab Congress chief". Zee News (in Latin). 27 November 2015. Retrieved 17 May 2016.
  3. ↑ Khanna, Rajeev (13 February 2016). "Why is BJP keen on retaining Akali alliance in Punjab?". CatchNews. Retrieved 2016-08-25.
  4. ↑ Vasudeva, Vikas (2015-12-29). "BJP gets ready to bargain for more seats in Punjab". The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 2016-08-25.
  5. ↑ "7 lakh youngsters yet to register with Election Commission". Hindustantimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  6. ↑ "2017 Assembly Polls: Voters Won't Have To Travel More Than 2 km To Cast Vote In Punjab". Ndtv.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  7. ↑ "Details of Assembly Segments of Parliamentary Constituencies - General Elections, 2014 - 16th Lok Sabha (page 946 of 1698)" (PDF). Election Commission of India.
  8. ↑ Kumar, Ashutosh (Panjab University) (2016). "2014 Parliamentary Elections in Punjab - Explaining the Electoral Success of Aam Aadmi Party" (PDF). Journal of Punjab Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara 21(1!):113-127(Spring) 2014.
  9. ↑ "AAP to contest in Punjab polls in 2017". Firstpost. December 29, 2015. Retrieved May 30, 2016.
  10. ↑ Kanchan Vasdev (February 6, 2016). "Prashant Kishor meets Capt Amarinder, discusses strategy for Punjab elections". The Indian Express. Retrieved May 30, 2016.
  11. ↑ Manish Kumar and Suparna Singh (May 26, 2016). "Congress Losing Assam Is Big Score For Prashant Kishor, Say Supporters". NDTV. Retrieved May 30, 2016.
  12. ↑ "The BSP had its vote share increased from 4.13 percent to 4.30 percent -- a rise by 0.17 per cent.".
  13. ↑ "BSP to start Punjab Bachao Abhiyaan from November 1".
  14. ↑ "About Balachaur Assembly Constituency".
  15. ↑ "BSP to go it alone in 2017 Punjab polls: Mayawati in Nawanshahr".
  16. ↑ "Mayawati says BSP to fight upcoming state elections alone".
  17. ↑ "'BSP to contest all 117 seats in Punjab'".
  18. ↑ "Now, BSP claims to root out drugs from state in a month".
  19. ↑ "Nothing wrong with 'Udta Punjab': Mayawati".
  20. ↑ "BSP plans door-to-door drive to woo non-Dalits".
  21. ↑ "Punjab: Ahead of 2017 polls, BSP promises 10pc quota for 'poor upper castes'".
  22. ↑ "BSP takes to social media ahead of Punjab polls".
  23. ↑ "BSP chooses Vienna to woo NRIs settled abroad".
  24. ↑ "BSP takes its campaign abroad for the first time to woo NRIs".
  25. ↑ "Ambedkar Sena Punjab merges with Bahujan Samaj Party".
  26. ↑ "Gurmel Chander joins BSP".
  27. ↑ "BSP announces Nine Candidates for Punjab (List available)".
  28. ↑ "Karimpuri resigns as Punjab BSP chief, named party nominee from Phillaur".
  29. ↑ "BSP replaces Punjab president Avtar Singh Karimpuri".
  30. ↑ "Karimpuri's entry spices up political battle in Phillaur".
  31. ↑ "Not alliance, congress wants to finish BSP in Punjab: Karimpuri".
  32. ↑ "BSP's base growing in Punjab: Rashpal Raju".
  33. ↑ "'Going alone would benefit BSP in state'".
  34. ↑ Ashraf, Ajaz (22 January 2016). "Behind AAP's popularity in Punjab: NRIs and a changing social structure". Scroll.in. Retrieved 2016-08-25.
  35. ↑ Mann, Gurdip Singh (11 August 2016). "SGPC doesn't play into hands of Badals: Jagir Kaur". The Tribune. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
  36. ↑ "Punjab Boils Over After The Limbs Of Two Dalit Men Are Chopped Off Allegedly At An Akali Dal Leader's Farmhouse!".
  37. ↑ "Punjab Dalit 'atrocities' echo in RS, Oppn flays Badal govt".
  38. ↑ "BSP says Punjab govt a meek spectator to Dalit atrocities".
  39. ↑ "Despite Upcoming Elections, Punjab Govt. Is Ignoring This Demand By Dalit Peasants".
  40. ↑ "Punjab dalit voters in spotlight".
  41. ↑ "'SIT probing 1984 Sikh riots set to open Pandora's box before Punjab polls". Business-standard.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  42. ↑ Srivastava, Mihir (27 June 2014). "Sloth, stupor and shame in Punjab | OPEN Magazine". OPEN Magazine. Retrieved 2016-08-25.
  43. ↑ "Why every political party in Punjab loves a drug addict". Indianexpress.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  44. ↑ "Reckless Media Coverage Has Ignored Real Problems of Drug Abuse in Punjab - The Wire". Thewire.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  45. ↑ "Punjab assembly elections: Overseas Sikhs and Punjabis emerge as key influencers - The Economic Times". Economictimes.indiatimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  46. ↑ Mohan, Vibhor (27 August 2015). "Census 2011: %age of Sikhs drops in Punjab; migration to blame?". The Times of India. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  47. ↑ "Punjab Religion Data - Census 2011". Census2011.co.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  48. ↑ "Scheduled Caste Population In Punjab". Welfarepunjab.gov.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  49. ↑ "Saini, Swarnkar/Sunar communities to be backward classes in Punjab".
  50. ↑ "Common List of OBCs State PUNJAB". Punjabbackfinco.gov.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  51. ↑ "CENTRAL LIST OF OBCs FOR THE STATE OF PUNJAB" (PDF). Ncbc.nic.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  52. ↑ "Survey puts OBC population at 40 pc". Hindustantimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  53. ↑ "Congress takes on Punjab CM for not implementing reservation policy in state". Punjabnewsexpress.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  54. ↑ "Dalit votes to decide ruling party of Punjab : North, News - India Today". Indiatoday.intoday.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  55. ↑ "'Centre not releasing caste census data because it doesn't want to face Mandal II'". Thehindubusinessline.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  56. ↑ "Centre releases census data on religion, hides caste figures". Dnaindia.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  57. ↑ "Before releasing caste numbers, the government needs to account for discrepancies in data". Scroll.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  58. ↑ "Why Is Modi Govt. Hiding Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011 Data?". Youthkiawaaz.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  59. ↑ "Caste-based Census data should be made public, demand Bihar CM Nitish Kumar - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  60. ↑ "Although the OBC share in the country's population is about 41 per cent, in states like Punjab, the concentration of the OBC population is less than 25 per cent". Hindustantimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  61. ↑ "Common List of OBCs State PUNJAB". Punjabbackfinco.gov.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  62. ↑ "The highest SC population, 31.9 per cent of the state's total number, is in Punjab - Indian Express". Archive.indianexpress.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  63. ↑ "PUNJAB DATA HIGHLIGHTS: THE SCHEDULED CASTES" (PDF). Censusindia.gov.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  64. ↑ "The Jats in Punjab comprise only 21 per cent population, yet they have been ruling and dominating politics in Punjab for decades - India Today". Indiatoday.intoday.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  65. ↑ "Punjab Religion Data - Census 2011". Census2011.co.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  66. ↑ "IndiaToday-Axis Opinion Poll of Punjab,October 2016".
  67. ↑ https://twitter.com/TV24India
  68. ↑ "Exclusive HuffPost-CVoter Poll: Aam Aadmi Party Wave Is Sweeping Punjab". Huffington Post India. Retrieved 2016-10-23.
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