Texas gubernatorial election, 2014

Texas gubernatorial election, 2014
Texas
November 4, 2014
Turnout 33.7% (Registered Voters)[1]
 
Nominee Greg Abbott Wendy Davis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,796,547 1,835,596
Percentage 59.3% 38.9%
Counties won 235 19

County results

  Abbot—40-50%
  Abbot—50-60%
  Abbot—60-70%
  Abbot—70-80%
  Abbot—80-90%
  Abbott—>90%
  Davis—40-50%
  Davis—50-60%
  Davis—60-70%
  Davis—70-80%


Governor before election

Rick Perry
Republican
Elected Governor

Greg Abbott
Republican

The 2014 Texas gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014 to elect the Governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry, who had served since the resignation of then-Governor George W. Bush on December 21, 2000, declined to run for an unprecedented fourth full term, making this the first open election for governor since 1990.

The election took place between nominees who were selected on March 4, 2014: Republican State Attorney General Greg Abbott and Democratic State Senator Wendy Davis. Also on the ballot were Libertarian Party candidate Kathie Glass[2] and Green Party candidate Brandon Parmer.[3] Abbott was projected to carry the election, and ultimately won handily with a 20 percentage point advantage.[4] Exit polls showed Abbott winning Whites (73% to 26%), while Davis received majorities among African Americans (92% to 7%) and Latinos (55% to 44%).[5]

Abbott took office on January 20, 2015, as the 48th Governor of Texas.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Greg
Abbott		 Lisa
Fritsch		 Larry
Kilgore		 Miriam
Martinez		 Tom
Pauken		 Other Undecided
UoT/Texas Tribune February 7–17, 2014 461 ± 4.56% 90% 4% 1% 5% — — —
UoT/Texas Tribune October 18–27, 2013 519 ± 5.02% 50% 3% 1% 2% 2% — 42%
Texas Lyceum September 6–20, 2013 279 ± 5.87% 22% — 2% 1% 0% — 74%

Results

Republican primary results[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Abbott 1,224,014 91.48
Republican Lisa Fritsch 59,221 4.42
Republican Miriam Martinez 35,585 2.65
Republican Larry Kilgore 19,055 1.42
Total votes 1,337,875 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Wendy
Davis		 Ray
Madrigal		 Other Undecided
UoT/Texas Tribune February 7–17, 2014 263 ± 6.04% 87% 13% — —

Results

Democratic primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Wendy Davis 432,595 78.08
Democratic Ray Madrigal 121,419 21.91
Total votes 554,014 100

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Results

Kathie Glass was nominated at the 2014 party convention.[2]

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Primary analysis

In the primary election, Greg Abbott polled 787,766 more votes than Wendy Davis though both were considered certain winners of their party nominations. The Republican turnout overall exceeded the Democrat strength by 786,487, nearly the same gap as that between Abbott and Davis.[45]

Both parties saw their turnout decline from 2010. The GOP had 151,101 fewer primary voters in 2014 than in 2010; the Democrats declined by 133,354. Republicans had a total turnout of 9.8 percent in 2014; the Democrats, 3.7 percent.[45]

Political scientist Mark P. Jones of Rice University in Houston, declared that the primary returns "looks bad for Democrats. There also wasn't very much going on [for Democrats] in 2010, yet more people voted in 2010 than voted in 2014. ... Instead of moving toward turning Texas blue, they are moving back towards Texas as an even redder state."[46]

Davis' intraparty rival and political unknown Ray Madrigal (born c. 1942) of Corpus Christi finished with nearly 21 percent of the vote, but he still outpolled the nominee in two high-profile South Texas counties with large numbers of Hispanic voters, Webb (56-44 percent) and Hidalgo (53-47 percent). In the smaller Willacy and LaSalle counties, Madrigal finished ahead of Davis with nearly 61 and 58 percent, respectively.[45]

In the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary, a candidate similar to Madrigal, Gary Espinosa, polled 22.2 percent of the vote against incumbent Ann Richards, who was thereafter unseated by George W. Bush. Richards remains thus far the last Democrat to have served as governor of Texas. Despite the similarity with 1994, Davis told a candidate forum after the primary that she expected no difficulty in attracting large Hispanic support in South Texas in her campaign against Abbott.[47]

Davis advisor Matt Angle said that he believed the Republicans performed poorly in the primary and would be damaged in the general election by rhetoric against illegal immigration in the heated primary race for lieutenant governor, which continued to a runoff between the incumbent David Dewhurst and the frontrunner, State Senator Dan Patrick, both of Houston. Conversely, Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak said that the Democrats missed an opportunity to bring voters to the polls in a show of strength: "If they think they can skip the primary and have a stunning victory [in the general election], that's extremely naïve."[46]

General election

Debates

The first of two confirmed gubernatorial debates between Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott took place at the Edinburg Conference Center at Renaissance at 18:00 on Friday, September 19, co-hosted by KGBT-TV, The Monitor and KTLM-TV.[48] KGBT-TV posted the complete video online.[49] The debate took place in Edinburg, Texas, and it gave both candidates an opportunity to appeal to the large Hispanic community that is looked at as an "increasingly important voting bloc in Texas."[50]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Greg
Abbott (R)		 Wendy
Davis (D)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 3,987 ± 3% 57% 37% 0% 6%
UoT/Texas Tribune October 10–19, 2014 866 ± 3.6% 54% 38% 8%[51] —
Survey Research Center September 22–October 16, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 47% 32% 2.1%[52] 17%
Crosswind Communications October 9–12, 2014 500 ± 4.33% 52.4% 31% 0.4% 16.2%
Rasmussen Reports October 1–2, 2014 840 ± 3.5% 51% 40% 3% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 4,177 ± 2% 54% 40% 0% 5%
Texas Lyceum September 11–25, 2014 666 ± 3.8% 49% 40% 4%[53] 8%
Benenson* September 2–4, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 46% 38% — 16%
WPA Opinion Research^ September 3, 2014 ? ± ? 53% 35% — 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 4,189 ± 2% 56% 38% 2% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 4–5, 2014 850 ± 3.5% 48% 40% 3% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 4,320 ± 3.7% 54% 37% 1% 9%
UoT/Texas Tribune May 30–June 8, 2014 1,200 ± 2.83% 44% 32% 7%[54] 17%
Texas Tech University April 14–17, 2014 454 ± 4.6% 54% 25% 6% 15%
Public Policy Polling April 10–13, 2014 559 ± 4.1% 51% 37% — 13%
Emerson College March 7–12, 2014 494 ± ? 49.3% 41.8% — 8.9%
Rasmussen Reports March 3–4, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 53% 41% 1% 4%
UoT/Texas Tribune February 7–17, 2014 1,200 ± 2.83% 47% 36% — 17%
Public Policy Polling November 1–4, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 50% 35% — 15%
47% 37% 9% 8%
UoT/Texas Tribune October 18–27, 2013 1,200 ± 3.3% 40% 34% — 25%
40% 35% 5%[55] 20%
Texas Lyceum September 6–20, 2013 798 ± 3.47% 29% 21% — 50%
Public Policy Polling June 28–July 1, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 48% 40% — 12%
Public Policy Polling January 24–27, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 46% 34% — 20%

Results

Texas gubernatorial election, 2014[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Greg Abbott 2,796,547 59.27% + 4.30%
Democratic Wendy Davis 1,835,596 38.90% - 3.35%
Libertarian Kathie Glass 66,543 1.41%
Green Brandon Parmer 18,520 0.39%
Independent Sarah M. Pavitt 1,062 0.02%
Majority 960,951 20.37
Turnout 4,718,268
Republican hold

See also

References

  1. ↑ Texas Secretary of State - Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current)
  2. 1 2 "2014 Statewide Offices List". Libertarian Party of Texas. Retrieved July 15, 2014.
  3. ↑ "Green Party of Texas - Peace * Justice * Democracy * Ecology". Retrieved October 11, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Up and down the ballot, a night of dominance for GOP in Texas and in Harris County". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  5. ↑ "2014 Exit Polls - Politics - Fox News". Fox News. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  6. ↑ Hoppe, Christy (July 14, 2013). "Greg Abbott makes it official: He's running for governor of Texas". Retrieved July 15, 2013.
  7. ↑ Rauf, David (October 8, 2013). "Another Republican jumps into the race for Texas governor". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved October 9, 2013.
  8. ↑ Fernandez, Manny (November 23, 2012). "With Stickers, a Petition and Even a Middle Name, Secession Fever Hits Texas". The New York Times. Retrieved February 20, 2013.
  9. ↑ "Miriam Martinez says she'll run for governor". The Monitor. Retrieved January 22, 2013.
  10. ↑ "Tom Pauken withdraws from GOP governor's race". The Dallas Morning News. 5 December 2013. Retrieved 9 December 2013.
  11. ↑ Stutz, Terrence. "David Dewhurst '101 percent' sure he'll seek re-election as Texas lieutenant governor | Dallasnews.com - News for Dallas, Texas - The Dallas Morning News". Dallasnews.com. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  12. ↑ "Dewhurst affirms re-election campaign". KTRK-TV Houston. Associated Press. August 7, 2013. Retrieved August 9, 2013.
  13. ↑ "Debra Medina - Looking forward to a weekend of...". Facebook. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  14. ↑ "Medina may run for Texas office again in 2014 - PoliTex". Blogs.star-telegram.com. February 20, 2012. Retrieved June 24, 2013.
  15. ↑ "Texas Gov. Perry Won't Seek Re-election in 2014". Newsmax.com. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  16. ↑ "Texas Municipal Police Association Endorses Greg Abbott". Abbott for Governor. July 29, 2013. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  17. ↑ "TOM PAUKEN FOR GOVERNOR OF TEXAS". Citizens for the Republic. July 19, 2013. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  18. ↑ "I want to thank my good friend and fellow Reaganite Mark Levin". Facebook. September 21, 2013. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  19. ↑ http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe 2014 Republican Party Primary Election
  20. ↑ "Wendy Davis tells Democrats she's in". Politico. September 26, 2013. Retrieved September 26, 2013.
  21. ↑ "Wendy Davis, of filibuster fame, to run for Texas governor". Reuters. September 26, 2013. Retrieved September 27, 2013.
  22. ↑ "2014 campaign now off and running in Texas". Star-Telegram. November 9, 2013. Retrieved November 15, 2013.
  23. ↑ Cooper, Gary (January 17, 2013). "Mayor Julian Castro says he's not running for governor in 2014". KENS 5. Retrieved January 18, 2013.
  24. ↑ "First Reading". www.statesman.com. Retrieved April 24, 2013.
  25. ↑ Kennedy, Bud (June 29, 2013). "To Kinky Friedman, a Wendy-for-governor campaign is no joke | Bud Kennedy | Fort Worth, Arlin". Star-telegram.com. Retrieved October 5, 2013.
  26. ↑ "Twitter / anniseparker: LOL. I appreciate the". Twitter.com. Retrieved July 18, 2013.
  27. ↑ "Mike Villarreal - My mother was the first to call me about...". Facebook. Retrieved June 20, 2013.
  28. ↑ "2014 Texas Governor's Race: Democratic Primary Preview". Burnt Orange Report. February 18, 2013. Retrieved June 26, 2013.
  29. ↑ "Bill White says Texas lagging in skilled jobs - Houston Chronicle". Chron.com. February 28, 2013. Retrieved June 20, 2013.
  30. ↑ Gonzalez, John W. (October 7, 2013). "Mayor Castro endorses Wendy Davis for governor". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  31. 1 2 3 Joseph, Cameron (October 4, 2013). "EMILY's List endorses Wendy Davis". The Hill. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  32. ↑ "HRC Endorses Wendy Davis for Texas Governor". Human Rights Campaign. January 29, 2014.
  33. ↑ http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe 2014 Democratic Party Primary Election
  34. ↑ "Interview with Texas Libertarian Party Gubernatorial Hopeful Robert Bell". Independent Political Report. January 27, 2014. Retrieved February 14, 2014.
  35. ↑ "Retired Army sergeant running for governor". Killeen Daily Herald. January 5, 2014. Retrieved February 14, 2014.
  36. ↑ "Libertarian Kathie Glass Announces Bid for Governor". The Texas Tribune. June 26, 2013. Retrieved October 5, 2013.
  37. ↑ "2014 Texas Statewide Candidates". Burnt Orange Report. Retrieved October 5, 2013.
  38. ↑ "Chapman for Governor". The Dalhart Texan. July 15, 2013. Retrieved July 15, 2013.
  39. ↑ "Chapman Withdraws from Texas Gubernatorial Race" – Very Good Citizenship Today, personal blog of Gene Chapman. Published 8 January 2014. Retrieved 12 January 2014.
  40. ↑ "Lee Wrights Considering Run for Texas Governor | Independent Political Report: Third Party News". Independent Political Report. July 5, 2013. Retrieved July 9, 2013.
  41. ↑ Ziggler, Jed. "Lee Wrights Drops Out of Texas Gubernatorial Race". Independent Political Report. Retrieved 2014-03-05.
  42. ↑ "Texas Greens Occupy Ballot In 2014". Green Party. December 10, 2013. Retrieved January 29, 2014.
  43. ↑ Jeff Winkler (October 31, 2014). "If Three's a Crowd...". Texas Monthly. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
  44. ↑ Peggy Fikac (October 28, 2013). "Medina not about to run for governor". Express News. Retrieved November 5, 2013.(registration required)
  45. 1 2 3 Texas Secretary of State, 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary election returns
  46. 1 2 Peggy Fikac of the San Antonio Express-News staff, "Turnout less than in 2010", Laredo Morning Times, March 10, 2014, pp. 1, 12A
  47. ↑ Ross Ramsey of The Texas Tribune, "Primary shows weak Davis", Laredo Morning Times, March 11, 2014, pp. 1, 14A
  48. ↑ Abbott, Davis to debate in the Rio Grande Valley, staff, Action 4 News, September 19, 2014
  49. ↑ Texas Governor Debate, KGBT-TV, September 19, 2014
  50. ↑ Richter, Marie. "Texas gubernatorial candidates court Hispanic vote in debate". Reuters. Retrieved 21 September 2014.
  51. ↑ Kathie Glass (L) 6%, Brandon Parmer (G) 2%
  52. ↑ Kathie Glass (L) 0.7%, Brandon Parmer (G) 1.4%
  53. ↑ Kathie Glass (L) 2%, Brandon Parmer (G) 2%
  54. ↑ Kathie Glass (L) 3%, Brandon Parmer (G) 1%, Other 3%
  55. ↑ Kathie Glass (L)
  56. ↑ "Office of the Secretary of State Race Summary Report 2014 General Election". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved August 3, 2015.

External links

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