Tokushima-Kōchi at-large district

Tokushima-Kōchi at-large district
Single-member Constituency for the House of Councillors
Prefectures	Tokushima, Kōchi
Region	Shikoku
Current constituency
Created	2015
Seats	2
Created from	Tokushima at-large district, Kōchi at-large district
2022 term	Yusuke Nakanishi (LDP)

The Tokushima-Kochi at-large district (徳島県・高知県選挙区 Tokushima-ken-Kōchi-ken senkyoku) is a constituency of the House of Councillors in the Diet of Japan (national legislature). The district was formed in 2015 from a merger of the Tokushima and Kōchi at-large districts. Liberal Democratic Party member Yusuke Nakanishi was elected as its first representative at the House of Councillors election in July 2016.

District outline

The district was formed pursuant to a 2015 revision of the Public Officers Election Law from a merger of the Tokushima and Kōchi at-large districts to address the imbalance in representation between rural and urban districts.^[1] At the same time, the Tottori and Shimane at-large districts were merged to form the Tottori-Shimane at-large district and changes in the number of Councillors representing eight other prefectures were also made to address the imbalance.^[2]

The district represents Kochi and Tokushima Prefectures and had 1,261,100 registered voters at the most recent annual survey in September 2015.^[3] The district will elect two Councillors to six-year terms, one every three years by a first-past-the-post system. The first Councillor to represent the district, Yusuke Nakanishi of the Liberal Democratic Party, was elected in the House of Councillors election held on 10 July 2016. At the time of the election the number of registered voters had increased to 1,284,099.^[4]

The merger has proved very unpopular within both prefectures. A June 2016 survey, conducted two weeks prior to the first election in the new district, found that three quarters of respondents in each prefecture opposed the merger. Kochi residents had a further issue of complaint, as all candidates in the election were born in Tokushima, leaving Kochi residents feeling as if they do not have a voice in the election.^[5]

2016 election

Candidates

In the first election held for the combined district, the incumbent member for the Tokushima district, Yusuke Nakanishi, was selected as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's candidate.^[6] Hajime Hirota, the Democratic Party's incumbent member in the Kochi district, announced on 31 October 2015 that he would not contest the district as a protest against the merger.^[7] In June 2016 it was reported that Hirota would instead contest one of Kochi Prefecture's districts at the next House of Representatives election, to be held by the end of 2018.^[8] During the nomination period, the opposition Democratic, Communist, Social Democratic and People's Life parties formed an agreement to field a joint candidate in single-member districts such as Tokushima-Kochi.^[9] Sō Ōnishi, a director of the Japan Federation of Bar Associations and president of the Tokushima Bar Association,^[10] contested the election as an independent candidate with official endorsements from the Democratic, Communist and Social Democratic parties.^[6] The third candidate was Masatoshi Fukuyama of the Happiness Realization Party.^[6]

Candidates[6]
	Independent	Sō Ōnishi	Endorsed by Democratic, Communist and Social Democratic parties
	Happiness Realization	Masatoshi Fukuyama
	Liberal Democratic	Yusuke Nakanishi (Incumbent)

Results

Nakanishi retained his seat in the Diet, receiving 54.1% of the vote compared to Ōnishi's 42.9%.^[11] Nakanishi claimed 57.9% of votes cast within Tokushima, but the difference between the two main candidates within Kochi Prefecture was much closer, with Nakanishi and Ōnishi receiving 49.8% and 47.2% respectively.^[12]

2016^[11][12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Liberal Democratic	Yusuke Nakanishi (Incumbent)	305,688	54.1	N/A
	Independent	Sō Ōnishi	242,781	42.9	N/A
	Happiness Realization	Masatoshi Fukuyama	16,988	3.0	N/A
Total valid votes			565,457	95.50	N/A
Informal votes			26,635	4.50	N/A
Turnout			592,092	46.26	N/A

Turnout

The overall voter turnout in the district was 46.26%,^[4] the lowest in the nation, and both prefectures recorded their lowest turnout to a House of Councillors election.^[13] By comparison, nationwide the turnout was 54.7%, a 2.1% increase from 2013.^[14] Of the 592,092 voters to cast a vote in the district, 157,550 (26.6%) attended pre-polling booths in the two-week period before the July 10 election date.^[15]

In Tokushima, the turnout was 46.98%, a 2.31% decrease from the previous election in July 2013. Amongst the eight cities of the prefecture, Tokushima city had the lowest turnout at 43.25%. Miyoshi recorded the highest turnout amongst the cities at 58.89%, but recorded a drop of more than 15% from its 2013 turnout. The city of Awa and town of Kamikatsu were the only municipalities within the entire electoral district to see an increase in turnout, with increases of 1.15% and 0.23% respectively.^[16]

In Kōchi, which was not the home prefecture of any of the candidates, the turnout was 45.52%, a 4.37% fall from the previous election.^[17] Turnout in Kōchi city and three other cities within the prefecture fell my more than 5%, and the village of Umaji saw a fall of almost 10%.^[17] Attendance at pre-polling booths saw an increase from 20.3% of participating voters in 2013 to 25.9% in 2016.^[17][18] On top of the poor turnout, 6.15% of those who turned out cast an invalid vote, compared to 3.55% in 2013,^[19] and nine voters left the polling booth without submitting their ballot.^[12]

Tokushima governor Kamon Iizumi said that the extremely poor turnout within the district was evidence of a problem and that the merger should be reversed, an issue that he would raise at the next meeting of the nation's governors.^[13] Iizumi also called upon Nakanishi to become a flag bearer for regional revitalization, as it was the decline in population throughout rural Japan which led to the merger of the smaller districts.^[13]

A revision to the electoral law came into effect three weeks before the election, which reduced the eligible age for voting from 20 to 18 years old.^[20] The number of people enrolled to vote in Tokushima-Kōchi on the day of the election was 1,279,900, an increase of 18,800 (1.5%) compared to the annual survey conducted ten months earlier.^[4][3]

National block vote

Voters in the election also cast a second ballot in the 48-member national proportional representation block.^[21] Voters have the option of voting for a specific candidate within a party, or for a party as a whole. Votes for specific candidates are used to determine who takes the seats won by the party. Tokushima's support for the conservative LDP and Komeito parties that make up the ruling coalition was 5.9% higher than the national average; conversely, Kochi's vote for the Communist Party was 6.7% higher than the national vote.

National block voting results within the Tokushima-Kōchi at-large district
Party		Tokushima Prefecture[22]		Kochi Prefecture[23][24]		District Total		National Total[25][26]
		Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	%	Seats Won
	Liberal Democratic	112,622.435	38.44	99,751.816	37.01	212,374.251	37.76	35.91	19
	Democratic	51,915.242	17.72	45,676.135	16.95	97,591.377	17.35	20.98	11
	Komeito	49,423.864	16.87	42,651.481	15.83	92,075.345	16.37	13.52	7
	Japanese Communist Party	26,655.815	9.10	46,933.951	17.41	73,589.766	13.08	10.74	5
	Initiatives from Osaka	27,705.285	9.46	10,589.460	3.93	38,294.745	6.81	9.20	4
	Social Democratic Party	5,299.373	1.81	7,856.316	2.91	13,155.689	2.34	2.74	1
	People's Life Party	4,794.000	1.64	4,123.000	1.53	8,917.000	1.56	1.91	1
	Happiness Realization Party	3,722.000	1.27	2,109.000	0.78	5,831.000	1.04	0.65	0
	Kokumin Ikari no Koe	3,047.511	1.04	2,669.051	0.99	5,716.562	1.02	0.83	0
	No Party to Support	2,897.000	0.99	2,799.000	1.04	5,696.000	1.01	1.16	0
	Party for Japanese Kokoro	3,034.698	1.04	2,414.356	0.90	5,449.054	0.97	1.31	0
	New Renaissance Party	1,851.691	0.63	1,941.337	0.72	3,793.028	0.67	1.04	0
Total valid votes		292,973[note 1]	95.74	269,522[note 2]	94.23	562,495	95.01
Invalid votes		13,018	4.26	16,495	5.77	29,523	4.99
Turnout		306,001	46.96	286,024	45.52	592,025	46.26	52.61	–

1. Includes 0.086 votes discarded during distribution and 4 votes for persons or parties not on the list of candidates.
2. Includes 0.097 votes discarded during distribution and 7 votes for persons or parties not on the list of candidates.

References

1. "Upper House districts set for shake-up after electoral reform laws pass Diet". Japan Times. 28 July 2015. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
2. Takenaka, Harukata (30 July 2015). "Weighing Vote Disparity in Japan's Upper House". Nippon.com. Retrieved 29 February 2016.
3. "平成２７年９月２日現在選挙人名簿及び在外選挙人名簿登録者数" [Number of resident and non-resident enrolled voters as of 2 September 2015] (in Japanese). 2 September 2015. Retrieved 29 February 2016.
4. "投票結果集計表" [Compilation of turnout] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
5. Yoshida, Reiji (6 July 2016). "Kochi voters feel neglected after redrawing of electoral boundaries". Japan Times. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
6. "候補者(選挙区・徳島・高知)【参議院選挙2016】" [Candidates (District: Tokushima-Kochi) [House of Councillors Election 2016]] (in Japanese). Yomiuri Shimbun. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
7. "民主党・広田氏、「徳島・高知」から不出馬" [Democrat Hirota will not contest Tokushima-Kochi] (in Japanese). Mainichi Shimbun. 1 November 2015. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
8. "参院改選19人が引退・不出馬　江田元議長ら" [19 Councillors to retire or not contest election, including former president Eda] (in Japanese). Nikkei. 2 June 2016. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
9. "Opposition parties, activists ink policy pact for Upper House election". Japan Times. 7 June 2016. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
10. "大西聡(選挙区・徳島・高知)【参議院選挙2016】" [So Onishi (District: Tokushima-Kochi) [House of Councillors Election 2016]] (in Japanese). Yomiuri Shimbun. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
11. "開票結果・速報(選挙区・徳島・高知)【参議院選挙2016】" [Results Update (Tokushima-Kochi District) [House of Councillors election 2016]]. Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). Retrieved 12 July 2016.
12. "開票結果集計票" [Results Table] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
13. "低投票率で徳島知事「合区解消を議論すべきだ」" [Low turnout: Tokushima Governor "Reversing the merger should be debated"]. Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 12 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
14. "１８歳５１％・１９歳は３９％…低かった投票率" [Low turnout: 18 year-olds 51%, 19 year-olds 39%]. Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
15. "期日前投票状況集計表" [Status of Pre-polling Turnout] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
16. "選挙区　投票状況確定　速報集計表" [Final district turnout data compilation] (in Japanese). Tokushima Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
17. "参議院徳島県及び高知県選挙区選出議員選挙投票結果集計表" [House of Councillors Tokushima-Kochi Election Turnout Data Compilation] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecure Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. p. 2. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
18. "参議院徳島県及び高知県選挙区選出議員選挙期日前投票最終状況" [House of Councillors Tokushima-Kochi District Pre-Polling Final Turnout] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
19. "参議院高知県選出議員選挙開票結果集計表" [House of Councillors Election Kochi Prefecture Results Table] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
20. "Japan lowers voting age; parties struggle to attract youth". Nikkei. 17 June 2016. Retrieved 14 November 2016.
21. "IPU PARLINE database JAPAN (Sangiin), Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 14 July 2016.
22. "比例代表開票状況確定速報集計表（総括表）" [National block confirmed results compilation (overall table)] (in Japanese). Tokushima Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 14 July 2016.
23. "参議院比例代表選出議員選挙開票結果集計表" [House of Councillors Election National Block Results Compilation Table] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 14 July 2016.
24. "参議院比例代表選出議員選挙開票結果集計表" [House of Councillors National Block Results Compilation Table] (PDF) (in Japanese). Kochi Prefecture Electoral Commission. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 14 July 2016.
25. "比例区 – 開票速報 – 2016参院選" [National Block Results – 2016 House of Councillors Election]. Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). Retrieved 14 July 2016.
26. "都道府県別有権者数、投票者数、投票率（比例代表）" [Number of electors, turnout and percentage by prefecture (National Block)] (in Japanese). Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Retrieved 14 July 2016.