Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, 2017

Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2017
India
2017
All 403 seats of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly
202 seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Leader Akhilesh Yadav Kumari Mayawati Not Yet
Party SP BSP BJP
Leader's seat None None None
Last election 224, 29.13% 80, 25.91%[1] 47, 15%
Seats before 97 206 51
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Sheila Dikshit Jayant Chaudhary
Party INC RLD
Leader's seat None None
Last election 28, 11.63% 09, 2.33%
Seats before 22 10
Chief Minister before election

Akhilesh Yadav
Samajwadi Party

 Elected Chief Minister

TBD

A legislative assembly election will be held in 2017 for the 403 seats of the Vidhan Sabha in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India. The dates of the election are yet to be announced, as of September 2016. In the previous election in 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a majority and formed government in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.

Chief Ministerial Candidates

Party BSP INC SP BJP
CM`s Candidate Mayawati Sheila Dikshit TBD[2] TBD

Background

Electoral process changes

In January 2016, the Election Commission of India published updated electoral rolls in all 403 assembly segments.[3] In July 2016, Election Commission decided to increase the number of polling booths in Uttar Pradesh for the 2017 Assembly elections. New polling centres will be planned in the constituencies having more than 1,500 registered voters as well as polling booths in six constituencies of Muzaffarnagar, Budhana, Purkazi, Khatoli, Charthawal and Midanpur to be raised from 1,769 to 1,819 booths.[4][5]

Political developments

Bahujan Samaj Party

2017 elections in Uttar Pradesh are said to be close contest between Bahujan Samaj Party[6][7] and Bharatiya Janata Party.[8][9] From August 2016, BSP held series of ‘Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay’ rallies starting from Agra, followed by Mega rallies in Azamgarh, Allahabad and Saharanpur.[10][11] In these rallies, Mayawati attacked misrule and Gundaraj of Samajwadi Party, Communal politics and Unfulfilled promises of achhe din by Bharatiya Janata Party and also ugly politics of Congress.[12][13] On 9 October 2016, for tenth Parinirvana divas of BSP founder Kanshi Ram at Manyawar Shri Kanshiram Ji Green Eco Garden, a massive crowd gathered from all over the State.[14][15] BSP has given more than 100 tickets to Muslim candidates, highest in UP till date.[16] In August 2016, four Muslim MLAs, 3 from Congress (Nawab Kazim Ali Khan, Dilnawaz Khan, Mohammad Muslim Khan) and 1 from Samajwadi Party (Nawazish Alam Khan) and also a former Bharatiya Janata Party minister Awadesh Kumar Verma joined BSP. Four Muslim MLAs, three from Congress and one from Samajwadi Party have joined BSP.[17][18] It is speculated that Muslims may prefer BSP over SP in the upcoming elections.[19]

Bharatiya Janata Party

BJP is trying to woo voters in Uttar Pradesh with Development agenda.[20] It is rumored that Mayawati is trying her best to gain from BJP's political activists, by making them join BSP, meanwhile alleging BJP of accepting the rejected politicians of BSP.[21] On the other hand, political leaders from other parties have joined BJP in the run-up to the elections.[22][23]

Samajwadi Party

On 28 March 2016, Samajwadi Party released its first candidate list of 142 contestants for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017.It is expected not to return into power in the forthcoming elections. The faimily clashes too wrecked its image among Muslims, opening doors for Mayawati to target complete majority in 2017 on basis of Dalits & Muslims coalition. The Samajwadi Party is likely to support covertly with the BJP during the elections in order to prevent Mayawati coming into power on her own.[24] In June 2016, Akhilesh Yadav Government undertook the seventh and last cabinet expansion.[25] SP is evidently going towards a split post removal of shivpal yadav from the cabinet and a 6 year suspension of party`s general secretary Ram Gopal yadav from the party by Mulayam singh yadav.[26]

Indian National Congress

Congress declared Sheila Dikshit as it CM Candidate for 2017 elections.The duo of Raj Babbar and Mrs.Dikshit may improve the worsend conditions of Congress. Priyanka Gandhi is also expected to take part in Congress rallies, but it still remains a rumor. Veteran leader Rita Bahuguna joshi`s defection to BJP may impact its outreach to the powerful Brahmin community of UP.

Election issues

The most important issue is said to be law and order of the state[27][28] and as in every election caste and Religion will play the key reasons for voters.[29] BJP may also try to pop up the Army`s surgical strikes across LOC as an elections issue to counter BSP.

Caste and religion data

As per 2011 census, Dalits constitute 21.1% of Uttar Pradesh population.[30][31] Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute 40% of U.P population.[32][33] Forward castes constitute around 18-20% of Uttar Pradesh population.[34] For accurate caste population data in India, Government of India has not publicly released Socio Economic and Caste Census 2011 caste population data for every single non-SC/ST castes (General castes, OBC/EBCs) in India.[35][36][37][38][39]

Castes of Uttar Pradesh
Caste Population (%) Notes
OBC/EBC 40% Yadavs - 8%
Kurmis - 6%
Kushwaha (Maurya/Shakya/Koeri/Kachhi/Saini) - 8%
Lodh - 2.2%
Gurjars - 1.7%
(Other OBCs(includes muslims OBCs) - 15%)[40]
Scheduled Castes (Dalits) 21.1%[41] includes Jatavs - 11.7%, Pasis - 3.3%, Dhobi/Kori/Balmikis - 3.15%, Gond/Dhanuk/Khatiks - 1.05%, Others - 1.57%[42]
Muslims 19.26%[43] includes Ashrafs/Ajlafs/Arzals,[44] OBC Muslims[45]
Other Castes 22% Brahmin - 10%[46]
Thakur (Rajput) - 7-8%
Vaishya - 2.5%
Tyagi/Bhumihar - 1%
Scheduled Tribes (Adivasis) 0.1%[47]
Others 0.4% includes Christians, Sikhs, Jains

Schedule

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Schedule 2017 would be Announced by November 2016 and Elections should take place by January 2017. Previous assembly polls, all 403 ACs went to polls in 7 Phases. The term of the present government will end in May 2017.[48]

Opinion polls

Polling firm/ Link/ Portal Survey Dates BJP BSP SP INC Others
India today-axis 12 October 170-183 115-124 94-103 8-12 2-6
ABP News [49] 16 May 2016 120 185 80 10 08
C-Voter [50] 3 September 2016 134-150 95-111 133-149 5-13 4-12

References

  1. ↑ of India, Election Commission. "STATISTICAL REPORT ON GENERAL ELECTION, 2012 TO THE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY OF UTTAR PRADESH" (PDF). eci.nic.in.
  2. ↑ "Indian Express Mulayam`s statement on CM candidate".
  3. ↑ "2017 assembly polls: Election Commission to begin election process April next". Indianexpress.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  4. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2017: Election Commission to increase polling booths - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Election Commission 2017 उत्तर प्रदेश चुनाव में बढ़ाएगी वोटिंग सेंटर्स - Jansatta". Jansatta.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  6. ↑ Rana, Uday (19 May 2016). "BSP's chances look very strong, feels Congress". The Times of India. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  7. ↑ "Mayawati sees good omen for 2017". Rediff. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  8. ↑ Sharma, Sandipan (18 November 2015). "No chance of a UP grand alliance: It will be a BJP-BSP contest in the 2017 state polls". Firstpost. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  9. ↑ Ghosh, Shubham (17 March 2016). "UP polls 2017: Survey shows BJP, BSP will have an intense battle in Purvanchal". www.oneindia.com. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  10. ↑ "In First Rally, Mayawati Plays Up To Dalits, They Say BSP Is 'Anti-Virus'".
  11. ↑ "After mega rally, BSP chief jumps to top of Twitter trends".
  12. ↑ "Mayawati woos Dalits, Muslims at Saharanpur rally; accuses BJP of engineering communal tension in UP".
  13. ↑ "Mayawati looks beyond Uttar Pradesh for BSP's expansion".
  14. ↑ "With an eye on Muslim-Dalit vote: Mayawati's back with a bang".
  15. ↑ "Lucknow: Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati targets Modi govt ahead of UP polls".
  16. ↑ "Crafting the bahujan rainbow".
  17. ↑ RASHID, OMAR. "Boost for Mayawati as 4 Muslim MLAs join BSP".
  18. ↑ "BSP RECEIVED A SHOT IN THE ARM".
  19. ↑ "The Hindu".
  20. ↑ "BJP to contest UP polls on development agenda: Union Min".
  21. ↑ "Eye on Uttar Pradesh polls, BJP showcases Pakistan Dalit minister who 'came back disillusioned'".
  22. ↑ "Rita Bahuguna Joshi joins BJP".
  23. ↑ "6 MLAs from join BJP".
  24. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election SP Candidate List 2016". Infoelection.
  25. ↑ "UP CM Akhilesh Yadav carries out cabinet expansion before 2017 polls".
  26. ↑ "quint.com".
  27. ↑ Verma, Saurabh (30 March 2016). "How The Law And Order Situation In U.P. Could Cost The Samajwadi Party During Elections". Youth Ki Awaaz. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  28. ↑ "UP govt needs to look into law and order". State Times. 4 June 2016. Retrieved 4 June 2016.
  29. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Issues 2017". Infoelections.
  30. ↑ Shailvee Sharda. "Job better than aid, say UP dalits - Times of India". The Times of India. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  31. ↑ "UP polls: Why is BJP hesitating in announcing its CM candidate?". Indiatvnews.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  32. ↑ "Survey puts OBC population at 40 pc". Hindustantimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  33. ↑ "OBC population in UP stands at 7 crore - timesofindia-economictimes". Articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  34. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh polls: BSP, SP and BJP leaving no stone unturned to come up trumps - The Economic Times". Economictimes.indiatimes.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  35. ↑ "'Centre not releasing caste census data because it doesn't want to face Mandal II'". Thehindubusinessline.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  36. ↑ "Centre releases census data on religion, hides caste figures". Dnaindia.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  37. ↑ "Before releasing caste numbers, the government needs to account for discrepancies in data". Scroll.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  38. ↑ "Why Is Modi Govt. Hiding Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011 Data?". Youthkiawaaz.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  39. ↑ "Caste-based Census data should be made public, demand Bihar CM Nitish Kumar - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  40. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh 2017: here's your primer to the caste cauldron". Catchnews.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  41. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh DATA HIGHLIGHTS: THE SCHEDULED CASTES Census of India 2001" (PDF). Censusindia.gov.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  42. ↑ Ashish Tripathi (Mar 7, 2012). "UP polls: Cracks in Mayawati's dalit vote bank - Times of India". The Times of India. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  43. ↑ "Census 2011 shows Islam is the fastest growing religion in India - Livemint". Livemint.com. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  44. ↑ "Muslim Caste in Uttar Pradesh" (PDF). Epw.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  45. ↑ "SOCIO-ECONOMIC DISABILITY AND UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEMS AMONG MUSLIMS OF OTHER BACKWARD CLASSES" (PDF). Planningcommission.nic.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  46. ↑ "Why Brahmins Hold The Key To The BJP's Fortunes In Uttar Pradesh". Huffingtonpost.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  47. ↑ "Uttar Pradesh DATA HIGHLIGHTS: THE SCHEDULED TRIBES Census of India 2001" (PDF). Censusindia.gov.in. Retrieved July 6, 2016.
  48. ↑ "UP Schedule".
  49. ↑ url=http://www.abplive.in/india-news/abp-news-opinion-poll-bsp-to-win-185-seats-if-up-polls-are-held-now-306920
  50. ↑ url=https://www.thequint.com/politics/2016/09/02/c-voter-opinion-poll-shows-bjp-and-sp-standing-toe-to-toe-in-up-bjp-congress-sp-bsp-mayawai-akhilesh-yadav-modi

External links

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