Canadian federal election, 2004

Canadian federal election, 2004
Canada
June 28, 2004 (2004-06-28)
308 seats in the 38th Canadian Parliament
155 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout 60.9% (Decrease3.2pp)
  First party Second party
 
Leader Paul Martin Stephen Harper
Party Liberal Conservative
Leader since November 14, 2003 March 20, 2004
Leader's seat LaSalle—Émard Calgary Southwest
Last election 172 seats, 40.85% 78 seats, 37.68%1
Seats before 168 72
Seats won 135 99
Seat change Decrease33 Increase27
Popular vote 4,982,220 4,019,498
Percentage 36.73% 29.63%
Swing Decrease4.12pp Decrease8.05pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Gilles Duceppe Jack Layton
Party Bloc Québécois New Democratic
Leader since March 15, 1997 January 24, 2003
Leader's seat Laurier Toronto—Danforth
Last election 38 seats, 10.72% 13 seats, 8.51%
Seats before 33 14
Seats won 54 19
Seat change Increase21 Increase5
Popular vote 1,680,109 2,127,403
Percentage 12.39% 15.68%
Swing Increase1.67pp Increase7.17pp

Prime Minister before election

Paul Martin
Liberal

 Prime Minister-designate

Paul Martin
Liberal

Map of Canada, showing the results of the 2004 election by riding.
The House of Commons after the 2004 election

The Canadian federal election, 2004 (more formally, the 38th General Election), was held on June 28, 2004 to elect members of the House of Commons of Canada of the 38th Parliament of Canada. The Liberal government of Prime Minister Paul Martin lost its majority, but was able to form a minority government after the elections. The main opposition party, the newly amalgamated Conservative Party of Canada, improved its position but with a showing below its expectations.

On May 23, 2004, Governor General Adrienne Clarkson, on the advice of Martin, ordered the dissolution of the House of Commons. Following a 36-day campaign, voters elected 308 Members of the House of Commons.

All three major national parties had changed their leaders since the 2000 election. Earlier the election was widely expected to be a relatively easy romp for Martin to a fourth consecutive Liberal majority government, but early in 2003 Liberal popularity fell sharply due to the sponsorship scandal. Polls started to indicate the possibility of a minority government for the Liberals, or even a minority Conservative government, fuelling speculation of coalitions with the other parties. In the end, the Liberals fared better than the final opinion polls had led them to fear, but well short of a majority.

On election day, polling times were arranged to allow results from most provinces to be announced more or less simultaneously, with the exception of Atlantic Canada, whose results were known before the close of polling in other provinces due to the British Columbia Supreme Court's decision in R. v. Bryan.

National results

In 2004, a federal party required 155 of the 308 seats to hold a majority in Canada. The Liberals came short of this number, winning 135. Until extremely close ridings were decided on the west coast, it appeared as though the Liberals' seat total, if combined with that of the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), would be sufficient to hold a majority in the House of Commons. In the end, the Conservatives won Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, and New Westminster-Coquitlam, after trailing in all three ridings, as sub-totals were announced through the evening.

As a result, the combined seat count of the Liberals and the NDP was 154, while the other 154 seats belonged to the Conservatives, Bloquistes, and one independent Chuck Cadman (previously a Conservative). Rather than forming a coalition with the NDP, the Liberal party led a minority government, obtaining majorities for its legislation on an ad hoc basis. Nevertheless, as the showdown on Bill C-48, a matter of confidence, loomed in the spring of 2005, the Liberals and NDP, who wanted to continue the Parliament, found themselves matched against the Conservatives and the Bloc, who were registering no confidence. The bill passed with the Speaker casting the decisive tie-breaking vote.

Voter turnout nationwide was 60.9%, the lowest in Canadian history at that time,[1] with 13,683,570 out of 22,466,621 registered voters casting their ballots. The voter turnout fell by more than 3pp from the 2000 federal election which had 64.1% turnout.[2]

↓
135 99 54 19 1
Liberal Conservative BQ NDP O
 Summary of the 2004 Canadian House of Commons election results
Party Party leader # of
candidates		 Seats Popular vote
2000 Dissol. Elected % Change # % Change
Liberal Paul Martin 308 172 168 135 -21.5% 4,982,220 36.73% -4.12pp
Conservative1 Stephen Harper 308 78 72 99 +37.5% 4,019,498 29.63% -8.05pp
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 75 38 33 54 +42.1% 1,680,109 12.39% +1.67pp
New Democratic Jack Layton 308 13 14 19 +46.2% 2,127,403 15.68% +7.17pp
  Independent / No Affiliation 64 - 10 1 - 64,864 0.48% +0.05pp
Green Jim Harris 308 - - - - 582,247 4.29% +3.48pp
Christian Heritage Ron Gray 62 * - - * 40,335 0.30% *
Marijuana Marc-Boris St-Maurice 71 - - - - 33,276 0.25% -0.27pp
Progressive Canadian Ernie Schreiber 16 * - - * 10,872 0.08% *
Canadian Action Connie Fogal 44 - - - - 8,807 0.06% -0.15pp
Marxist–Leninist Sandra L. Smith 76 - - - - 8,696 0.06% -0.03pp
Communist Miguel Figueroa 35 - - - - 4,426 0.03% -0.06pp
Libertarian Jean-Serge Brisson 8 * - - * 1,949 0.01% *
  Vacant 4  
Total 1,683 301 301 308 +2.3% 13,564,702 100%
Sources: http://www.elections.ca -- History of Federal Ridings since 1867

Notes:

"% change" refers to change from previous election

* Party did not nominate candidates in the previous election. In the case of the CHP, which did have 46 candidates in the previous election, the party did not have official status and is not officially compared.

1 Conservative Party results are compared to the combined totals of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party in the 2000 election.

Vote and seat summaries

Popular vote
Liberal
  
 36.73%
Conservative
  
 29.63%
NDP
  
 15.68%
Bloc Québécois
  
 12.39%
Green
  
 4.29%
Others
  
 1.28%


Seat totals
Liberal
  
 43.83%
Conservative
  
 32.14%
Bloc Québécois
  
 17.53%
NDP
  
 6.17%
Independents
  
 0.32%

Results by province

Party name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL NU NT YK Total
     Liberal Seats: 8 2 1 3 75 21 7 6 4 5 1 1 1 135
     Popular vote: 28.6 22.0 27.2 33.2 44.7 33.9 44.6 39.7 52.5 48.0 51.3 39.4 45.7 36.7
  Conservative Seats: 22 26 13 7 24 - 2 3 - 2 - - - 99
  Vote: 36.3 61.7 41.8 39.1 31.5 8.8 31.1 28.0 30.7 32.3 14.4 17.2 20.9 29.6
  Bloc Québécois Seats:           54               54
  Vote:           48.9               12.4
     New Democratic Seats: 5 - - 4 7 - 1 2 - - - - - 19
     Vote: 26.6 9.5 23.4 23.5 18.1 4.6 20.6 28.4 12.5 17.5 15.2 39.1 25.7 15.7
     No Affiliation Seats: 1   -   -                 1
     Vote: 1.0   x   x                 0.1
Total seats: 36 28 14 14 106 75 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 308
Parties that won no seats:
Green Vote: 6.3 6.1 2.7 2.7 4.4 3.2 3.4 3.3 4.2 1.6 3.3 4.3 4.6 4.3
Christian Heritage Vote: 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 x   0.1 0.1       0.8 0.3
Marijuana Vote: 0.2 0.2   0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1         2.4 0.2
     Progressive Canadian Vote:   x     0.2   0.3             0.1
Marxist–Leninist Vote: 0.1 x     0.1 0.1   x           0.1
Canadian Action Vote: 0.3 0.1   x x x 0.1             0.1
Communist Vote: 0.1 x   0.9 x x               x
Libertarian Vote: 0.1       x x               x
     Independents Vote: 0.3 x 4.6 x 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1   0.6 15.7     0.3

Source: Elections Canada

10 closest ridings

  1. Western Arctic, NT: Ethel Blondin-Andrew (Lib) def. Dennis Bevington (NDP) by 53 votes
  2. Jeanne-Le Ber, QC: Liza Frulla (Lib) def. Thierry St-Cyr (BQ) by 72 votes
  3. Simcoe—Grey, ON: Helena Guergis (Cons) def. Paul Bonwick (Lib) by 100 votes
  4. New Westminster—Coquitlam, BC: Paul Forseth (Cons) def. Steve McClurg (NDP) by 113 votes
  5. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre, SK: Tom Lukiwski (Cons) def. Gary Anderson (Lib) by 122 votes
  6. Palliser, SK: Dave Batters (Cons) def. Dick Proctor (NDP) by 124 votes
  7. Edmonton—Beaumont, AB: David Kilgour (Lib) def. Tim Uppal (Cons) by 134 votes
  8. Cambridge, ON: Gary Goodyear (Cons) def. Janko Peric (Lib) by 224 votes
  9. Kildonan—St. Paul, MB: Joy Smith (Cons) def. Terry Duguid (Lib) by 278 votes
  10. Northumberland—Quinte West, ON: Paul Macklin (Lib) def. Doug Galt (Cons) by 313 votes

Seat by seat results

Notes

Major political parties

Liberal Party of Canada

Until the sponsorship scandal, most pundits were predicting that new Prime Minister Paul Martin would lead the Liberal Party of Canada to a fourth majority government, possibly setting a record for number of seats won.

However, polls released immediately after the scandal broke showed Liberal support down as much as 10% nationwide, with greater declines in its heartland of Quebec and Ontario. Although there was some recovery in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, Liberal hopes of making unprecedented gains in the west faded. The unpopularity of some provincial Liberal parties may also have had an effect on federal Liberal fortunes. In Ontario, for instance, the provincial Liberal government introduced an unpopular budget the week of the expected election call, and their federal counterparts then fell into a statistical dead heat with the Conservatives in polls there. The Liberals were also harmed by high-profile party infighting that had been plaguing the party since Martin's earlier ejection from Cabinet by now-former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien.

The campaign was criticized openly by Liberal candidates, one incumbent Liberal comparing it to the Keystone Kops.

Conservative Party of Canada

In the final months of 2003, the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance were running a distant third and fourth, respectively, in public opinion polls.

Many pundits predicted that the combination of the popular and fiscally conservative Martin, along with continued vote-splitting on the right, could have led to the almost total annihilation of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. This fear prompted those two parties to form a united Conservative Party of Canada, which was approved by the members of the Canadian Alliance on December 5, 2003, and controversially by the delegates of the Progressive Conservatives on December 6, 2003.

The new Conservative Party pulled well ahead of the NDP in the polls just before the election, although its support remained below the combined support that the Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance had as separate parties. On March 20, the Conservatives elected Stephen Harper as their new leader.

The Conservatives gained more ground in polls after Harper became leader, and the poll results in the weeks before the election had them within one to two points of the Liberals, sometimes ahead, sometimes behind them. Party supporters hoped that the voters would react negatively to the Liberal attacks on what they called Harper's "hidden agenda", and that anger over the sponsorship scandal and other Liberal failures would translate to success at the polls.

Late in the campaign, the Conservatives began to lose some momentum, in part due to remarks made by MPs and candidates regarding homosexuality, official bilingualism and abortion. Additionally, the Liberal Party began airing controversial TV ads. Harper was also criticized for his position supporting the American-led 2003 invasion of Iraq. The term "hidden agenda", used commonly in the 2000 election to refer to Stockwell Day, began surfacing with increasing regularity with regard to Harper's history of supporting privatized health care. Further damaging the Conservative campaign was a press release from Conservative headquarters that suggested that Paul Martin supported child pornography. The momentum began to swing against his party, although some polls suggested it was neck and neck right up until election day.

Although on the eve of the election the party was polling slightly ahead of the Liberals everywhere west of Quebec, it had dropped in support, polling behind or on par with Liberals everywhere except the West (Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba), where it held onto its traditional support.

All together the new Conservatives fell from the combined Canadian Alliance-Progressive Conservative vote in 2000 of 37%, to only 29% of the vote, yet still gained 21 extra seats, finishing in second-place with 99 seats.

New Democratic Party

Before the announcement of the union of the right-of-centre parties, some were predicting that the New Democratic Party (Canada) would form the official opposition because the NDP was polling ahead of both right-of-centre parties. A new leader (Jack Layton) and clear social democratic policies helped revitalize the NDP. Polls suggested that the NDP had returned to the 18% to 20% level of support it enjoyed in the 1984 election and 1988 election. Layton suggested that the NDP would break their previous record of 43 seats won under former leader Ed Broadbent.

The NDP focused the campaign on winning ridings in Canada's urban centres, hoping especially to win seats in central Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa and Winnipeg. The party's platform was built to cater to these regions and much of Layton's time was spent in these areas.

The campaign stumbled early when Layton blamed the deaths of homeless people on Paul Martin, prompting the Liberals to accuse the NDP of negative campaigning. The NDP benefited from the decline in Liberal support, but not to the same extent as the Conservatives. There was an increasing prospect that NDP voters would switch to the Liberals to block a Conservative government. This concern did not manifest itself in the polls, however, and the NDP remained at somewhat below 20 percent mark in the polls for most of the campaign.

The NDP achieved 15% of the popular vote, its highest in 16 years. However, it only won 19 seats in the House of Commons, two less than the 21 won in 1997, and far short of the 40 predicted. There was criticism that Layton's focus on urban issues and gay rights marginalized the party's traditional emphasis on the poor, the working class, and rural Canadians. Long-time MP Lorne Nystrom and several other incumbents from the Prairie provinces were defeated, with the NDP being shut out of Saskatchewan for the first time since 1965. Layton won his own seat in a tight race, while Broadbent was returned to Parliament after many years of absence.

Bloc Québécois

The Bloc Québécois (BQ) had managed their best showing back in 1993, but they lost seats to the Liberals in 1997 and 2000, prompting pundits to suggest a decline in support for Quebec sovereignty. The Bloc continued to slide in the polls in most of 2003 after the election of the federalist Quebec Liberal Party at the National Assembly of Quebec under Jean Charest, and during the long run-up to Paul Martin becoming leader of the federal Liberals.

However, things progressively changed during 2003, partly because of the decline in popularity of the Liberal Party of Quebec government of Jean Charest, and partly because support for independence in Quebec rose again (49% in March). The tide took its sharp turn when, in February 2004, the sponsorship scandal (uncovered in considerable part by the Bloc) hit the Liberal federal government.

These events led to a resurgence of the BQ, putting it ahead of the pack once again: according to an Ipsos-Reid poll carried out for The Globe and Mail and CTV between the 4th and the 8th of June, 50% of Quebecers intended to vote for the BQ against 24% for the Liberals.

Jim Harris, Greens Leader

Speculation was ongoing about the possibility of the Bloc forming alliances with other opposition parties or with an eventual minority government to promote its goals of social democracy and respect of the autonomy of provinces. Leader Gilles Duceppe stated that the Bloc, as before, would co-operate with other opposition parties or with the government when interests were found to be in common, but that the Bloc would not participate in a coalition government.

Green Party of Canada

The Greens ran candidates in all 308 ridings for the first time in its history. The party won twice as many votes in this election than it had over the previous 21 years of its history combined, although it failed to win a seat. It also spent more money than in the previous 21 years, and although much of this money was borrowed, the Greens' share of the popular vote enabled them to receive federal funding.

Campaign slogans

These are the official slogans for the 2004 campaigns. The optional parts of the mottos (sometimes not used for efficiency) are put in brackets.

Liberal Party English: Moving (Canada) Forward or Choose your Canada
French: Allons (or Aller) droit devant (avec l'Équipe Martin) (Moving forward with Team Martin)
Conservative Party English: Demand Better
French: C'est assez! (Enough!)
Bloc Québécois Un parti propre au Québec (A party belonging to Quebec or An honest party in Quebec)
Pre-election: Parce qu'on est différent (Because we're different)
New Democratic Party English: [New Energy.] A Positive Choice.
French: [Une force nouvelle.] Un choix Positif. (A New Force, A Positive Choice)
Green Party English: Someday is now
French: L'avenir c'est maintenant

Issues

Important issues in the election:

Accusations of Stephen Harper trying to form a coalition government

On March 26, 2011, Gilles Duceppe stated that Harper had tried to form a coalition government with the Bloc and NDP two months after this election in 2004. He was responding to Harper's warnings in 2011 that the Liberals might form a coalition with the Bloc and the NDP.[3]

Policy positions of minor political parties

Timeline

Leadership elections of 2003 and 2004

Poll results

See also

Articles on parties' candidates in this election:

Other articles:

References

Notes

  1. ↑ "Elections Canada Online | Voter Turnout at Federal Elections and Referendums, 1867-2008". Elections.ca. Retrieved 2011-02-24.
  2. ↑ Archived December 23, 2003, at the Wayback Machine.
  3. ↑ Payton, Laura (March 26, 2011). "Harper wanted 2004 coalition: Duceppe". CBC News. Retrieved March 26, 2011.

General

External links

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