43rd Canadian federal election

43rd Canadian federal election
Canada
On or before October 21, 2019 (On or before October 21, 2019)
338 seats in the House of Commons of Canada
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Justin Trudeau Rona Ambrose Tom Mulcair
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 14, 2013 November 5, 2015
(interim until May 27, 2017)		 March 24, 2012
(until October 29, 2017 at latest)
Leader's seat Papineau Sturgeon River—Parkland Outremont
Last election 184 seats, 39.47% 99 seats, 31.89% 44 seats, 19.71%
Current seats 182 97 44
 
Leader Rhéal Fortin Elizabeth May
Party Bloc Québécois Green
Leader since October 22, 2015
(interim until 2017)		 August 27, 2006
Leader's seat Rivière-du-Nord Saanich—Gulf Islands
Last election 10 seats, 4.66% 1 seat, 3.45%
Current seats 10 1
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

The 43rd Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. The October 21 date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date procedures in the Canada Elections Act[1] but the Act does not preclude the Governor General of Canada from issuing the writs of election at an earlier date.

Background

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status and BQ leader Gilles Duceppe announcing his resignation shortly after the election.

Due to Tom Mulcair failing his April 2016 leadership review by garnering only 48% of the delegate vote, the NDP will hold a leadership election in October 2017.[2]

Electoral reform

In June 2015, Justin Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post."[3][4] Due to all opposition parties but the Conservatives being in favour of such reform,[5] it is possible that a different voting system will be in place before the next federal election.

Current standings

  Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada
Party Party leader Seats
2015 Current
Liberal Justin Trudeau 184 182
Conservative Rona Ambrose
(interim)		 99 97
New Democratic Tom Mulcair 44 44
Bloc Québécois Rhéal Fortin
(interim)		 10 10
Green Elizabeth May 1 1
  Independent 0 1
  Vacant 3
Total 338 338

Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:

New Democratic Party

Timeline

2015

2016

2017

Opinion polls

In the 42nd Canadian Election, pollsters managed to predict the election result accurately. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, support for Trudeau's Liberals increased significantly at the expense of the Conservatives and the NDP, with the latter dropping to their lowest level in a decade.[22]

Election spending

Before the campaign, there were no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.[23]

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.[24]

Registered third parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[25] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[26]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  2. 1 2 Kirkup, Kristy (10 April 2016). "NDP rejects Mulcair as leader, votes in support of holding leadership race". Ottawa Citizen. Canadian Press. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
  3. ↑ John Geddes. "Can Justin Trudeau fix the vote with electoral reform?". Macleans.ca. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
  4. ↑ "Justin Trudeau unveils Liberal platform". CBC Player. 6 January 2016. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
  5. ↑ "Mulcair Promises Proportional Representation If NDP Wins". The Huffington Post. 2 January 2015. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
  6. ↑ "Tom Mulcair quitting politics before next federal election", Montreal Gazette, May 15, 2016
  7. ↑ "Stephen Harper resigns as Conservative leader". CTV News. October 19, 2015. Retrieved October 19, 2015.
  8. ↑ Perreaux, Les (October 22, 2015). "Bloc leader Duceppe, former PQ interim leader both resign". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  9. ↑ "Lifting the curtain on Harper's covert exit strategy". Ottawa Citizen. October 28, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
  10. ↑ "Rona Ambrose named interim leader of the Conservative Party of Canada". The National Post. November 5, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  11. ↑ Mehler Paperny, Anna (November 4, 2015). "Canada's parliament will reconvene in December". Global News. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  12. ↑ "Alberta Conservative MP Jim Hillyer dies at age 41". Toronto Star. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  13. ↑ Wherry, Aaron (April 10, 2016). "NDP votes in favour of holding new leadership race". CBC News. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
  14. ↑ "Hunter Tootoo resigns as fisheries minister, leaves Liberal caucus". CBC News. May 31, 2016. Retrieved May 31, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Liberal MP Mauril Bélanger dies at 61". CTV News. August 16, 2016. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
  16. ↑ Levitz, Stephanie (August 26, 2016). "Stephen Harper gives up House of Commons seat". CBC News. Retrieved August 26, 2016.
  17. ↑ Grenier, Éric (September 9, 2016). "Start-up party Strength in Democracy deregistered by Elections Canada". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
  18. ↑ "Jason Kenney to resign federal seat next week". CBC News. September 13, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2016.
  19. ↑ Bell, David (October 24, 2016). "Conservative Glen Motz thanks Trudeau after winning Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner byelection". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  20. ↑ "Mark your calendars, federal Conservatives: You'll be electing a new leader on May 27, 2017". National Post. Retrieved January 19, 2016.
  21. ↑ http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-leadership-convention-date-1.3583438
  22. ↑ http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/95187c50-8143-4ff2-ab57-0af551fe3875Federal%20Political%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
  23. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – Third Party Election Advertising Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
  24. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – The Electoral System of Canada". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
  25. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – Election advertising handbook for Third Parties, Financial Agents and Auditors (EC 20227) – July 2015". elections.ca. Retrieved August 10, 2015.
  26. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – Limits on Election Advertising Expenses Incurred by Third Parties". elections.ca. Retrieved August 10, 2015.

External links

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