Asturian parliamentary election, 2012

Asturian parliamentary election, 2012

25 March 2012

All 45 seats in the Asturian General Junta 23 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 989,993 0.3% Turnout 506,368 (51.1%) 10.6 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Javier Fernández Francisco Álvarez-Cascos Mercedes Fernández Party FSA–PSOE FAC PP Leader since 23 October 2010 18 January 2011 14 February 2012 Last election 15 seats, 29.9% 16 seats, 29.7% 10 seats, 20.0% Seats won 17 12 10 Seat change 2 4 ±0 Popular vote 161,159 124,518 108,091 Percentage 32.1% 24.8% 21.5% Swing 2.2 pp 4.9 pp 1.5 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Jesús Iglesias Ignacio Prendes Party IU–IX UPyD Leader since 2007 2 November 2010 Last election 4 seats, 10.3% 0 seats, 2.4% Seats won 5 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 69,118 18,801 Percentage 13.8% 3.7% Swing 3.5 pp 1.3 pp

President before election Francisco Álvarez-Cascos FAC Elected President Javier Fernández FSA–PSOE

The 2012 Asturian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Andalusia.

This was a snap election held as a result of the incumbent government under Francisco Álvarez-Cascos failing to pass the 2012 budget in the General Junta after just six months in power.^[1][2] The Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) under Javier Fernández, which had scored first in votes but second in seats in the previous election, went on to win a decisive victory whereas Álvarez Cascos' Asturias Forum (FAC) lost its seat plurality of seats it had won in the previous election and fell from 16 to 12 seats. The People's Party (PP) was unable to improve on its 2011 results despite a change of leadership and remained stagnant at 10 seats, while United Left (IU–IX) grew from 4 to 5 seats. Voter turnout was the lowest since 1983, as just 51.1% of the electorate cast a ballot.

The election resulted in a draw between the centre-left (PSOE–IU) and centre-right (FAC–PP) blocs after the counting of the vote of those living abroad deprived FAC from a seat in the Eastern District, awarding it to PSOE. Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), which managed to get into parliament after failure in 2011 to do so, became determinant for either bloc to attain an absolute majority, with ensuing negotiations resulting in a Socialist minority government led by Javier Fernández.

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected in 3 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts did not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

• Central District, comprising the municipalities of: Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco.
• Eastern District, comprising the municipalities of: Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa.
• Western District, comprising the municipalities of: Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros del Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza.

Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 2 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three districts in proportion to their populations. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Central District (34), Eastern District (5) and Western District (6).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[3]

Opinion polls

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork/ publication date	Sample size	TO						Lead
Regional Election	25.03.12	N/A	51.1%	32.1	24.8	21.5	13.8	3.7	7.3
Celeste-Tel	19.03.12	?	?	32.3	22.3	23.0	12.6	4.2	9.3
Ipsos	18.03.12	1,300	?	29.5	22.5	22.6	13.0	3.8	6.9
GAD3	15.03.12–16.03.12	800	?	33.3	21.0	25.8	10.1	3.8	7.5
Sigma Dos	12.03.12–15.03.12	1,000	?	27.7	27.1	22.2	14.8	3.2	0.6
Opinión 2000	09.03.12	400	?	35.1	20.9	24.3	12.4	2.6	10.8
CIS	15.02.12–28.02.12	1,800	?	28.2	22.7	24.0	14.5	4.4	4.2
NC Report	15.02.12–28.02.12	900	57.6%	32.5	24.5	23.3			8.0
General Election	20.11.11	N/A	64.6%	29.3	14.7	35.4	13.2	3.9	6.1
Regional Election	22.05.11	N/A	61.7%	29.9	29.7	20.0	10.3	2.4	0.2

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork/ publication date
Regional Election	25.03.12	17	12	10	5	1
Celeste-Tel	19.03.12	14/17	10/12	11/13	4/7	1/2
NC Report	19.03.12	15/16	11/12	12/13	5/6	1/2
Ipsos	18.03.12	15	11/12	11/12	6	1
GAD3	15.03.12–16.03.12	15/16	10/11	12/13	4/5	1
Sigma Dos	12.03.12–15.03.12	13/14	13/14	10/11	6/7	1
Opinión 2000	09.03.12	17/18	10/11	12	5	0
PP	06.03.12	17/18	9/10	12/14	4/5	0/1
CIS	15.02.12–28.02.12	14	10/11	11/12	7	2
NC Report	15.02.12–28.02.12	16	12	12	4	1
Low Cost	16.02.12–21.02.12	15	10	15	4	1
Regional Election	22.05.11	15	16	10	4	0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 Asturian General Junta election results →

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE)	161,159	32.10	+2.18	17	+2
	Asturias Forum (FAC)	124,518	24.80	–4.86	12	–4
	People's Party of Asturias (PP)	108,091	21.53	+1.58	10	±0
	United Left of Asturias (IU–IX)	69,118	13.77	+3.49	5	+1
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	18,801	3.74	+1.30	1	+1

Parties with less than 1.0% of the vote		13,220	2.63	—	0	–1
	Blank Seats (EB)	4,107	0.82	New	0	±0
	Equo–The Greens of Asturias (eQuo–LV)	2,558	0.51	New	0	±0
	Commitment for Asturias (BA–UNA–LV–GV)	1,656	0.33	–1.30	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,449	0.29	–0.03	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	782	0.16	–0.08	0	±0
	Independents of Asturias–Jaded.org (IDEAS–Hartos.org)	738	0.15	–0.91	0	±0
	Andecha Astur (AA)	674	0.13	New	0	±0
	Asturian Renewal Union (URAS)	454	0.09	–0.40	0	±0
	Democratic and Constitutional Party (PDyC)	237	0.05	–0.12	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	183	0.04	±0.00	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	178	0.04	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	100	0.02	+0.02	0	±0
	Auseva Red (Auseva Red)	55	0.01	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	28	0.01	New	0	±0
	Land Party (PT)	16	0.00	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	5	0.00	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	7,166	1.43	–1.17
Total		502,073	100.00		45	±0
Valid votes		502,073	99.15	+0.59
Invalid votes		4,295	0.85	–0.59
Votes cast / turnout		506,368	51.15	–10.54
Abstentions		483,625	48.85	+10.54
Registered voters		989,993
Source(s): General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Argos Information Portal

Vote share
FSA–PSOE			32.10%
FAC			24.80%
PP			21.53%
IU–IX			13.77%
UPyD			3.74%
Others			2.63%
Blank ballots			1.43%

Parliamentary seats
FSA–PSOE			37.78%
FAC			26.67%
PP			22.22%
IU–IX			11.11%
UPyD			2.22%

Results by district

Election results by district.

Post-election

After the election, the leader of the Asturian PSOE, Javier Fernández, and incumbent Asturian President, Francisco Álvarez Cascos, were tasked to form a coalition government. The election led to a political impasse as the center-left (PSOE and IU-IX) and center-right coalitions (FAC and PP) each gained 22 seats in the election (23 seats are required for a majority in the 45-seat Assembly). The remaining seat was held by the centrist UPyD, which became the kingmaker in the negotiation.

Coalition talks took almost two months to reach an agreement. One of the main events during the negotiation was the legal battle in the Spanish Constitutional Court over the 45th seat, the assignment of which was delayed by the counting of the ballots of those voting abroad. FAC disputed the seat's assignment to the PSOE and asked for a revote; however, the Constitutional Court rejected the appeal and upheld the seat for the PSOE.^[4]

UPyD finally agreed to support a PSOE government, their main reason to do so being the threat by Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro to intervene in Asturian government accounts.^[5] On 23 May 2012, PSOE leader Javier Fernández was elected as the new President of the Principality of Asturias with support from IU and UPyD.^[6]

Notes

References

1. "Cascos calls snap election in Asturias by surprise for 25 March" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2012-01-30.
2. "Cascos sets snap election and accuses both PP and PSOE of a 'plot'" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-01-30.
3. "Law 14/1986, of 26 December, on the regulation of elections to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias".
4. "One month and 21 days of thrill" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-16.
5. "The PSOE will govern in Asturias after reaching an agreement with UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-16.
6. "Javier Fernández, President of Asturias with the support of IU and UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-23.

External links

• 2012 election results