Extremaduran parliamentary election, 2015

Extremaduran parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura 33 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 911,433 0.5% Turnout 650,774 (71.4%) 3.3 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Guillermo Fernández Vara José Antonio Monago Álvaro Jaén Party PSOE PP Podemos Leader since 20 September 2006 8 November 2008 14 February 2015 Last election 30 seats, 43.4% 32 seats, 46.1% Did not contest Seats won 30 28 6 Seat change ±0 4 6 Popular vote 265,015 236,266 51,216 Percentage 41.5% 37.0% 8.0% Swing 1.9 pp 9.1 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Victoria Domínguez Pedro Escobar Party C's IU Leader since 5 April 2015 30 September 2007 Last election Did not contest 3 seats, 5.7% Seats won 1 0 Seat change 1 3 Popular vote 28,010 27,122 Percentage 4.4% 4.2% Swing New party 1.5 pp

President before election José Antonio Monago PP Elected President Guillermo Fernández Vara PSOE

The 2015 Extremaduran parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Assembly of Extremadura, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Extremadura. At stake were all 65 seats in the Assembly, determining the President of Extremadura.

The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the Extremaduran Assembly was set to a fixed-number of 65. All Assembly members were elected in 2 multi-member districts, corresponding to Extremadura's two provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 25 seats allocated among the two provinces in proportion to their populations. For the 2015 election, seats were distributed as follows: Badajoz (36) and Cáceres (29).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution. Alternatively, however, if a party did not reach the 5% threshold in a district, it could enter the seat distribution on the following conditions:

• 1. That the party had stood in both districts.
• 2. That, regionally, the party had reached the 5% threshold (even if it did not reach it in one of the two districts).^[1]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Oth.	Lead
24 May 2015	Regional Election	37.0	41.5	4.2	0.6	4.4	8.0	4.3	4.5
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	35.7	37.6	4.0	0.8	9.5	10.1	2.3	1.9
4–8 May	PP	41.1	30.3	4.1	1.0	10.6	10.0	2.9	10.8
3 May	ENQUEST	41.0	30.7			9.9	12.1	6.3	10.3
22–24 Apr	GAD3	37.9	33.9	3.8	1.1	10.5	8.3	4.5	4.0
21–22 Apr	Metroscopia	37.4	31.8	5.4		10.5	13.0	1.9	5.6
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	34.6	38.9	4.1	0.7	6.9	11.6	3.2	4.3
30 Mar–15 Apr	Vaubán	33.3	34.8	4.3	3.9	8.1	10.7	4.9	1.5
25 Mar–9 Apr	NC-Report	36.2	38.2	4.1	0.9	9.2	9.1	2.3	2.0
24–27 Feb	Sigma-2	43.8	29.2	4.4		4.4	13.4	4.8	14.6
9–20 Feb	Vaubán	32.6	33.4	5.1	7.6	3.2	12.7	5.4	0.8
8–12 Jan	Sigma-2	43.0	33.3	5.8			12.4	5.5	9.7
2015
21 Oct	Vaubán	33.0	35.0	4.5	7.5		9.5	10.5	2.0
16–20 Oct	Sigma-2	39.7	38.2	3.6			13.5	5.0	1.5
25 May 2014	EP Election	35.6	38.7	6.3	5.5	1.0	4.8	8.2	3.1
2 Feb	Sigma-2	44.3	38.9	9.5	3.6			3.7	5.4
2014
12 May	Sigma-2	45.1	39.1	8.5	2.7			4.6	6.0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report[lower-alpha 1]	38.5	42.6					18.9	4.1
9 May	PSOE	40.0	45.0	5.6	1.1			8.3	5.0
2013
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	51.2	37.2	5.7	3.5			2.4	14.0
22 May 2011	Regional Election	46.1	43.4	5.7	1.1			3.7	2.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Extremaduran Assembly.

33 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Others
24 May 2015	Regional Election	28	30	0	0	1	6	0
24 May	GAD3	27−29	26−27	0−1	0	5−6	4−5	0
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	25−26	27−28	0	0	5−6	6−7	0
4–8 May	PP	30	21	0	0	7	7	0
3 May	ENQUEST	29−30	21−22	0	0	6	7−8	0
22–24 Apr	GAD3	26−27	24−25	0	0	7−8	6	0
21–22 Apr	Metroscopia	25	22	3	0	7	8	0
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	24−26	26−28	0−2	0	4	8	0
30 Mar–15 Apr	Vaubán	24−25	26−27	0−2	0−1	6−7	7−8	0
25 Mar–9 Apr	NC-Report	26−27	27−28	0	0	5−6	5−6	0
8 Apr	PSOE	26	29	0	0	3	7	0
24–27 Feb	Sigma-2	31−33	21−23	0−2	0	0−2	9	0
9–20 Feb	Vaubán	24	24	3	5	0	9	0
31 Jan	PP	32	25	3	0	0	5	0
8–12 Jan	Sigma-2	29−31	23−24	3	0	0	8−9	0
2015
31 Oct	Llorente & Cuenca	23−26	26−29	3−5	2	0	4−7	0
16–20 Oct	Sigma-2	27−29	27−29	0	0	0	9	0
21 Oct	Vaubán	26	27	0	5	0	7	0
25 May 2014	EP Election	(27)	(29)	(4)	(3)	(0)	(2)	(0)
2 Feb	Sigma-2	31−32	27−28	6	0	0	0	0
2014
15 Oct–12 Nov	NC-Report	30−31	30−31	4−5	0	0		0
12 May	Sigma-2	31−33	27−29	5	0	0		0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	29−30	31−32	4−5	0	0		0
9 May	PSOE	29	32	4	0	0		0
2013
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	(37)	(25)	(3)	(0)			(0)
22 May 2011	Regional Election	32	30	3	0			0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Extremaduran Assembly election results

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party-Independent Socialists (PSOE-SIEx)	265,015	41.50	1.95	30	±0
	People's Party (PP)	236,266	37.00	9.13	28	4
	We Can (Podemos)	51,216	8.02	New	6	6
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	28,010	4.39	New	1	1
	Let's Win Extremadura-United Left-The Greens (Ganemos-IU-LV)	27,122	4.25	1.47	0	3
	Extremadurans (eX)	9,305	1.46	New	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	3,947	0.62	0.44	0	±0
	United Extremadura (EU)	3,127	0.49	New	0	±0
	Vox (VOX)	1,786	0.28	New	0	±0
	Forward Extremadura (AEx)	1,538	0.24	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,502	0.24	New	0	±0
	Forward Badajoz (BA)	1,245	0.19	New	0	±0
	Blank ballots	8,561	1.34	0.07
Total		638,640	100.00		65	±0
Valid votes		638,640	98.14	0.51
Invalid votes		12,134	1.86	0.51
Votes cast / turnout		650,774	71.40	3.25
Abstentions		260,659	28.60	3.25
Registered voters		911,433
Source(s): Government of Extremadura Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PSOE-SIEx			41.50%
PP			37.00%
Podemos			8.02%
C's			4.39%
Ganemos-IU-LV			4.25%
eX			1.46%
Others			2.06%
Blank ballots			1.34%

Parliamentary seats
PSOE-SIEx			46.15%
PP			43.08%
Podemos			9.23%
C's			1.54%

Notes

1. Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

1. "Law 2/1987, of 16 March, of elections to the Assembly of Extremadura.".