United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
Kentucky
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,048,462 751,985
Percentage 57.37% 41.15%

County Results
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
  McCain—70-80%
  McCain—80-90%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 8 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. In the primaries Hillary Clinton was slightly defeating McCain in the Bluegrass State. Once Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Kentucky was moved into the safe GOP category. In the end, Kentucky voted for McCain with over 57% of the vote.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll, almost all of them by a double digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $183,738 while a conservative interest groups spent just $212.[16] Each ticket visited the state once.[17]

Analysis

Although Democrats have a majority of Kentucky's voters, the state has traditionally leaned conservative. Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from the South, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago.

Throughout the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries, Barack Obama experienced problems attracting voters in Appalachia, the mountainous region in which Kentucky is included. Kentucky supported Hillary Clinton over Obama by a margin of two-to-one in its primary election in which Obama only won just two counties - Jefferson County, which includes Louisville, and Fayette County, which contains Lexington. Exit polls conducted in the Kentucky Democratic Primary also found that just one out of three Clinton voters would vote for Obama in the general election, while 40% said they would vote for John McCain, and the rest wouldn't even vote.[18]

During the general election, Obama opted not to campaign in Kentucky and preferred to spend his time and money and other resources in battleground states such as North Carolina and Indiana. Opinion polling in Kentucky showed McCain leading the state safely over Obama.[19]

McCain carried Kentucky by 16.22 points on Election Day, although his margin of victory was slightly smaller than George W. Bush's in 2004. A number of counties in the state's southeastern coal-mining region, a union stronghold for more than a century, voted Republican for the first time since Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. These counties had been the bedrock of Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 victories. On the other hand, Obama did much better in the largest cities of Louisville and Lexington, improving upon Kerry's performance by double-digits in both.

Kentucky was the first state called for John McCain on Election Night. It was called almost as soon as the polls closed, an hour after Vermont was the first state called for Barack Obama.

At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also serves as Senate Minority Leader, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

Results

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,048,462 57.37% 8
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 751,985 41.15% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 15,378 0.84% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 5,989 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,694 0.26% 0
Totals 1,827,586 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Totals#
Adair 25.51% 1,888 74.49% 5,512 7,298
Allen 27.78% 2,023 72.22% 5,258 7,390
Anderson 33.46% 3,461 66.54% 6,884 10,552
Ballard 36.00% 1,427 64.00% 2,537 4,060
Barren 32.80% 5,434 67.20% 11,133 16,807
Bath 49.73% 2,210 50.27% 2,234 4,543
Bell 28.99% 2,782 69.61% 6,681 9,598
Boone 32.52% 16,292 67.48% 33,812 50,774
Bourbon 41.26% 3,385 58.74% 4,820 8,330
Boyd 43.74% 8,886 56.26% 11,429 20,670
Boyle 38.23% 4,764 61.77% 7,697 12,635
Bracken 37.53% 1,241 62.47% 2,066 3,399
Breathitt 45.22% 2,205 54.78% 2,671 5,030
Breckinridge 37.06% 3,110 62.94% 5,281 8,522
Bullitt 33.62% 10,056 66.38% 19,857 30,726
Butler 29.61% 1,555 70.39% 3,696 5,307
Caldwell 36.39% 2,212 63.61% 3,866 6,199
Calloway 40.68% 6,165 59.32% 8,991 15,404
Campbell 39.38% 15,619 60.62% 24,045 40,297
Carlisle 34.10% 8,79 65.90% 1,699 2,617
Carroll 45.78% 1,716 54.22% 2,032 3,835
Carter 45.10% 4,314 54.90% 5,252 9,813
Casey 20.67% 1,219 79.33% 4,679 5,957
Christian 39.50% 8,822 60.50% 13,515 22,778
Clark 37.30% 5,749 62.70% 9,664 15,628
Clay 21.37% 1,552 78.63% 5,710 7,364
Clinton 18.44% 761 81.56% 3,366 4,172
Crittenden 32.50% 1,254 67.50% 2,604 3,930
Cumberland 25.32% 697 74.68% 2,056 2,797
Daviess 44.87% 19,282 55.13% 23,692 43,622
Edmonson 31.68% 1,652 68.32% 3,562 5,270
Elliott 62.99% 1,535 37.01% 902 2,515
Estill 29.68% 1,555 70.32% 3,685 5,314
Fayette 52.44% 66,040 47.56% 59,884 127,648
Fleming 39.91% 2,279 60.09% 3,432 5,832
Floyd 49.31% 7,530 50.69% 7,741 15,659
Franklin 49.70% 11,767 50.30% 11,911 24,079
Fulton 44.48% 1,226 55.52% 1,530 2,825
Gallatin 40.99% 1,278 59.01% 1,840 3,193
Garrard 28.22% 2,012 71.78% 5,117 7,210
Grant 35.68% 3,109 64.32% 5,605 8,754
Graves 36.75% 5,843 63.25% 10,056 16,155
Grayson 32.32% 3,154 67.68% 6,605 9,903
Green 24.13% 1,204 75.87% 3,785 5,079
Greenup 42.80% 6,621 57.20% 8,849 15,798
Hancock 52.52% 2,128 47.48% 1,924 4,144
Hardin 39.57% 15,650 60.43% 23,896 39,990
Harlan 26.52% 2,586 73.48% 7,165 9,914
Harrison 39.21% 2,916 60.79% 4,520 7,590
Hart 34.25% 2,290 65.75% 4,397 6,818
Henderson 51.34% 10,049 48.66% 9,523 19,861
Henry 40.03% 2,724 59.97% 4,081 6,919
Hickman 36.61% 812 63.39% 1,406 2,250
Hopkins 37.35% 7,104 62.65% 11,916 19,348
Jackson 14.43% 743 85.57% 4,407 5,224
Jefferson 56.06% 196,272 43.94% 153,865 354,936
Jessamine 31.26% 6,236 68.74% 13,710 20,214
Johnson 28.81% 2,413 71.19% 5,964 8,517
Kenton 39.14% 21,460 60.86% 33,371 68,213
Knott 46.10% 2,523 53.90% 2,950 5,820
Knox 27.39% 3,074 72.61% 8,150 11,389
LaRue 31.54% 1,913 68.46% 4,153 6,178
Laurel 20.73% 4,593 79.27% 17,563 22,500
Lawrence 36.76% 2,036 63.24% 3,503 5,649
Lee 27.55% 752 72.45% 1,978 2,773
Leslie 17.65% 766 82.35% 3,574 4,397
Letcher 32.83% 2,623 67.17% 5,367 8,235
Lewis 31.97% 1,510 68.03% 3,213 4,791
Lincoln 30.49% 2,752 69.51% 6,273 9,151
Livingston 35.95% 1,622 64.05% 2,890 4,593
Logan 35.50% 3,811 64.50% 6,925 10,890
Lyon 41.53% 1,577 58.47% 2,220 3,855
Madison 38.62% 12,392 61.38% 19,694 32,537
Magoffin 46.38% 2,105 53.62% 2,434 4,651
Marion 48.35% 3,596 51.65% 3,842 7,615
Marshall 37.15% 5,593 62.85% 9,463 15,487
Martin 22.25% 808 77.75% 2,824 3,692
Mason 41.34% 2,891 58.66% 4,102 7,121
McCracken 37.21% 11,285 62.79% 19,043 30,754
McCreary 23.58% 1,258 76.42% 4,078 5,407
McLean 45.14% 1,963 54.86% 2,386 4,422
Meade 39.36% 4,343 60.64% 6,691 11,206
Menifee 52.49% 1,276 47.51% 1,155 2,489
Mercer 31.78% 3,159 68.22% 6,781 10,060
Metcalfe 33.06% 1,350 66.94% 2,734 4,199
Monroe 23.18% 1,067 76.82% 3,537 4,665
Montgomery 41.59% 4,234 58.41% 5,947 10,331
Morgan 43.87% 1,858 56.13% 2,377 4,379
Muhlenberg 49.11% 6,221 50.89% 6,447 12,889
Nelson 43.02% 7,654 56.98% 10,139 18,146
Nicholas 43.77% 1,272 56.23% 1,634 2,970
Ohio 41.25% 4,059 58.75% 5,781 9,938
Oldham 34.48% 9,996 65.52% 18,992 29,316
Owen 36.33% 1,694 63.67% 2,969 4,751
Owsley 22.95% 381 77.05% 1,279 1,686
Pendleton 35.54% 2,027 64.46% 3,676 5,802
Perry 33.74% 3,444 66.26% 6,762 10,375
Pike 42.92% 9,525 57.08% 12,665 22,643
Powell 41.87% 2,065 58.13% 2,867 4,972
Pulaski 21.96% 5,590 78.04% 19,862 25,766
Robertson 45.83% 451 54.17% 533 1,015
Rockcastle 22.86% 1,410 77.14% 4,757 6,274
Rowan 51.05% 4,074 48.95% 3,907 8,154
Russell 21.69% 1,579 78.31% 5,702 7,475
Scott 39.56% 7,712 60.44% 11,782 19,730
Shelby 37.50% 6,871 62.50% 11,451 18,540
Simpson 38.48% 2,775 61.52% 4,437 7,309
Spencer 31.90% 2,519 68.10% 5,378 8,049
Taylor 29.49% 3,165 70.51% 7,568 10,860
Todd 31.63% 1,543 68.37% 3,336 4,941
Trigg 34.90% 2,246 65.10% 4,189 6,527
Trimble 39.86% 1,484 60.14% 2,239 3,812
Union 47.33% 2,804 52.67% 3,120 6,034
Warren 40.48% 17,650 59.52% 25,957 44,145
Washington 36.38% 1,890 63.62% 3,305 5,275
Wayne 31.14% 2,201 68.86% 4,868 7,196
Webster 44.04% 2,390 55.96% 3,037 5,540
Whitley 25.81% 3,484 74.19% 10,014 13,704
Wolfe 51.47% 1,493 48.53% 1,408 2,968
Woodford 41.35% 5,027 58.65% 7,130 12,297
Totals57.37%1,048,46241.15%751,9851,827,587

By congressional district

John McCain carried five of the state's six congressional districts, including one of the two districts held by a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.85% 36.60% Ed Whitfield
2nd 60.54% 38.03% Ron Lewis (110th Congress)
Brett Guthrie (111th Congress)
3rd 43.36% 55.66% John Yarmuth
4th 60.41% 37.96% Geoff Davis
5th 67.01% 31.24% Hal Rogers
6th 55.41% 43.22% Ben Chandler

Electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[21]

  1. James Henry Snider
  2. Walter A. Baker
  3. Edna M. Fulkerson
  4. Amy B. Towles
  5. Nancy Mitchell
  6. Don Ball
  7. Robert Gable
  8. Elizabeth G. Thomas

References

  1. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  2. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  4. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  5. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  7. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  8. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  9. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ↑ roadto270
  13. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  14. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  16. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Top of the Ticket". Los Angeles Times. May 20, 2008. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Kentucky". Retrieved 2008-12-19.
  20. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  21. ↑ Kentucky's Electors » Archive » Evening News and Tribune
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