United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 20 0 Popular vote 2,940,044 2,677,820 Percentage 51.38% 46.80%

County Results   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   Obama—<50%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Ohio was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 4.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state as a major swing state and bellwether. Both major party candidates visited the Buckeye State numerous times and campaigned throughout the state extensively trying to sway moderates and independent voters to their side. The polls in Ohio were fairly even throughout the campaign but Obama had a slight lead as Election Day drew closer. In the end, Obama flipped Ohio into the Democratic column.

Primaries

• Ohio Republican primary, 2008
• Ohio Democratic primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican^[1]
2. Cook Political Report: Toss Up^[2]
3. Takeaway: Toss Up^[3]
4. Election Projection: Leaning Obama^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Leaning Obama^[6]
7. Politico: Leaning Obama^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Toss Up^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama^[6]
10. CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat^[9]
11. New York Times: Toss Up^[10]
12. CNN: Toss Up^[11]
13. NPR: Toss Up^[6]
14. MSNBC: Leaning McCain^[6]
15. Fox News: Toss Up^[12]
16. Associated Press: Toss Up^[13]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up^[14]

Polling

During most of the summer and September, McCain led many state polls and many by 50% of over. Rasmussen had McCain leading with as high as 51% in September.^[15] But many voters in the state changed their minds as Obama later gained a steady lead in most polls taken starting in the beginning of October (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis).^[16][17]

Fundraising

Obama raised $7,218,801. McCain raised $5,682,839.^[18]

Advertising and visits

A major swing state, Obama spent over $28 million to McCain's $24 million.^[19] The Republican ticket visited the state 28 times to the Obama ticket's 22 times.^[20]

Analysis

Going into Election 2008, both McCain and Obama knew that Ohio was a crucial state. Earlier in the primary season, Ohio had given a major comeback victory to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Both candidates campaigned heavily throughout the state in hopes for winning its 20 electoral votes. As no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, it was seen in particular as a "must-win" state for McCain. George W. Bush's narrow wins in 2000(by 3.50 percent against Al Gore) and 2004 (2.11 percent against John Kerry) proved critical in Bush's narrow wins nationally.

On Election Day 2008, Obama won the Buckeye State's 20 electoral votes by a margin of 4.59 percent. Obama's win in heavily populated areas such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), Montgomery County (Dayton) and the traditionally Republican Hamilton County (Cincinnati) greatly contributed to his victory in the state.

McCain did best in the Republican base in the center and western regions, composed of relatively rural areas combined with Cincinnati and Columbus' heavily Republican suburbs. In addition, McCain won all but one county in the Appalachian southeast, mirroring the troubles Obama had throughout this region. On the other hand, Obama did best in the Democratic base—Cleveland (where he won almost 70% of the vote), Youngstown and the heavily unionized counties next to Pennsylvania. However, he was unable to significantly improve upon John Kerry's performance in these areas. More surprisingly, the cities of Cincinnati and Columbus gave him strong support. Cincinnati, the only major city that didn't vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt, voted Democratic for the first time since 1964. Columbus, a city shifting to the Democrats, also voted for Obama by a three-to-two margin. In addition, Obama won several northern counties along the shore of Lake Erie that John Kerry had lost in 2004.

As polls closed and results were coming in on Election Night, Republican strategist and adviser Karl Rove joined Brit Hume on Fox News offering analysis. Rove was discussing the impact an Ohio loss would have on McCain's chances of winning the election. "If he loses Ohio," Rove stated of McCain, "he goes from 286, which the Republicans carried in 2004, down to 266, and that puts him below the 270 threshold needed to win the White House. So he'd not only need to sweep the rest of these states which were won by the Republicans in 2004, he'd also need to pick up something as well." In an untimely moment, Hume broke in. "Guess what Karl," Hume interrupted, "I've just received word that the state of Ohio has gone for Barack Obama."^[21]

Results

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	2,940,044	51.38%	20
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	2,677,820	46.80%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	42,337	0.74%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	19,917	0.35%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		13,682	0.24%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	12,565	0.22%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	8,518	0.15%	0
	Others	Others		6,843	0.12%	0
Totals				5,721,726	100.00%	20
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						67.3%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others	Total
Adams	36.6%	4,170	60.7%	6,914	2.7%	304	11,388
Allen	38.8%	19,521	59.6%	29,941	1.6%	801	50,263
Ashland	37.0%	9,300	60.2%	15,158	2.8%	710	25,168
Ashtabula	55.8%	25,027	42.2%	18,949	2.0%	898	44,874
Athens	66.6%	20,722	31.3%	9,742	2.0%	634	31,098
Auglaize	28.6%	6,727	69.8%	16,395	1.5%	364	23,486
Belmont	50.3%	16,302	47.6%	15,422	2.1%	687	32,411
Brown	37.3%	7,503	60.6%	12,192	2.1%	418	20,113
Butler	38.0%	66,030	60.6%	105,340	1.4%	2,406	173,776
Carroll	46.0%	6,423	50.9%	7,097	3.1%	433	13,953
Champaign	39.1%	7,385	59.0%	11,141	1.9%	361	18,887
Clark	47.9%	31,958	50.4%	33,634	1.8%	1,178	66,770
Clermont	33.1%	31,611	65.5%	62,559	1.4%	1,310	95,480
Clinton	34.0%	6,558	64.3%	12,410	1.8%	338	19,306
Columbiana	45.1%	21,882	52.8%	25,585	2.1%	1,020	48,487
Coshocton	45.6%	7,689	51.4%	8,675	3.0%	499	16,863
Crawford	39.1%	8,288	58.2%	12,316	2.7%	569	21,173
Cuyahoga	68.9%	458,204	30.0%	199,864	1.1%	7,049	665,117
Darke	30.9%	7,964	67.0%	17,290	2.1%	539	25,793
Defiance	43.8%	8,399	54.2%	10,407	2.0%	391	19,197
Delaware	39.7%	36,653	59.3%	54,778	1.1%	988	92,419
Erie	56.1%	23,148	42.3%	17,432	1.6%	649	41,229
Fairfield	40.7%	29,250	57.8%	41,580	1.6%	1,116	71,946
Fayette	37.6%	4,401	60.7%	7,102	1.6%	191	11,694
Franklin	59.7%	334,684	39.0%	218,478	1.3%	7,129	560,291
Fulton	45.1%	9,900	53.2%	11,689	1.7%	384	21,973
Gallia	35.9%	4,777	61.9%	8,247	2.2%	294	13,318
Geauga	41.6%	21,250	56.9%	29,096	1.5%	756	51,102
Greene	40.1%	33,540	58.5%	48,936	1.3%	1,113	83,589
Guernsey	44.0%	7,625	53.1%	9,197	2.9%	503	17,325
Hamilton	53.0%	224,644	46.0%	195,107	1.0%	4,334	424,085
Hancock	37.6%	13,870	60.8%	22,420	1.6%	591	36,881
Hardin	38.2%	5,013	59.1%	7,749	2.7%	352	13,114
Harrison	47.3%	3,683	49.7%	3,872	3.0%	232	7,787
Henry	42.6%	6,320	55.5%	8,239	1.9%	281	14,840
Highland	35.7%	6,857	62.1%	11,908	2.2%	423	19,188
Hocking	48.3%	6,231	49.1%	6,326	2.6%	338	12,895
Holmes	28.3%	3,141	69.5%	7,720	2.3%	252	11,113
Huron	47.2%	12,076	50.4%	12,884	2.4%	622	25,582
Jackson	38.6%	5,397	58.7%	8,219	2.7%	377	13,993
Jefferson	49.1%	17,635	48.9%	17,559	2.1%	745	35,939
Knox	39.0%	11,014	58.9%	16,640	2.0%	577	28,231
Lake	49.6%	60,155	48.7%	59,142	1.7%	2,038	121,335
Lawrence	41.4%	11,262	56.7%	15,415	1.9%	517	27,194
Licking	41.2%	33,896	57.0%	46,886	1.8%	1,501	82,283
Logan	35.7%	7,936	62.3%	13,848	1.9%	433	22,217
Lorain	58.1%	85,276	40.2%	59,068	1.7%	2,515	146,859
Lucas	65.0%	142,852	33.5%	73,706	1.5%	3,273	219,831
Madison	37.4%	6,532	60.8%	10,603	1.8%	316	17,451
Mahoning	62.2%	79,173	35.6%	45,319	2.1%	2,711	127,203
Marion	44.4%	12,870	53.3%	15,454	2.4%	693	29,017
Medina	45.2%	40,924	53.3%	48,189	1.5%	1,338	90,451
Meigs	39.5%	4,094	58.1%	6,015	2.4%	245	10,354
Mercer	27.5%	5,853	71.0%	15,100	1.5%	318	21,271
Miami	34.8%	18,372	63.3%	33,417	1.9%	1,018	52,807
Monroe	53.1%	3,705	43.9%	3,066	3.0%	211	6,982
Montgomery	52.5%	145,997	46.3%	128,679	1.3%	3,535	278,211
Morgan	44.9%	2,966	52.1%	3,440	3.1%	202	6,608
Morrow	37.1%	6,177	60.5%	10,067	2.4%	399	16,643
Muskingum	45.4%	17,730	52.6%	20,549	2.0%	792	39,071
Noble	40.1%	2,474	55.9%	3,450	4.0%	248	6,172
Ottawa	52.2%	12,049	46.0%	10,618	1.7%	402	23,069
Paulding	42.6%	4,165	54.4%	5,317	2.9%	287	9,769
Perry	47.1%	7,261	50.1%	7,721	2.7%	422	15,404
Pickaway	38.3%	9,077	60.0%	14,228	1.8%	421	23,726
Pike	48.2%	6,033	49.3%	6,162	2.5%	311	12,506
Portage	53.5%	41,856	44.5%	34,822	2.0%	1,528	78,206
Preble	33.3%	6,999	64.6%	13,562	2.1%	441	21,002
Putnam	28.3%	5,281	70.0%	13,072	1.8%	327	18,680
Richland	42.1%	25,727	55.7%	34,034	2.2%	1,361	61,122
Ross	45.4%	14,455	52.6%	16,759	2.0%	626	31,840
Sandusky	51.4%	15,601	46.7%	14,190	1.9%	582	30,373
Scioto	45.8%	14,926	52.2%	16,994	2.0%	651	32,571
Seneca	47.7%	13,087	50.4%	13,823	2.0%	539	27,449
Shelby	30.9%	7,317	67.3%	15,924	1.8%	427	23,668
Stark	51.7%	96,990	46.3%	86,743	2.0%	3,812	187,545
Summit	57.6%	155,105	41.1%	110,499	1.3%	3,455	269,059
Trumbull	60.0%	64,145	37.6%	40,164	2.4%	2,602	106,911
Tuscarawas	50.1%	21,498	47.6%	20,454	2.3%	998	42,950
Union	35.1%	8,761	63.2%	15,744	1.7%	423	24,928
Van Wert	35.3%	5,178	62.6%	9,168	2.1%	306	14,652
Vinton	43.6%	2,463	53.5%	3,021	2.9%	162	5,646
Warren	31.4%	33,398	67.5%	71,691	1.1%	1,127	106,216
Washington	41.3%	12,368	56.9%	17,019	1.8%	545	29,932
Wayne	41.6%	21,712	56.3%	29,342	2.1%	1,088	52,142
Williams	44.4%	8,174	53.7%	9,880	1.9%	343	18,397
Wood	52.7%	34,285	45.6%	29,648	1.7%	1,090	65,023
Wyandot	40.6%	4,461	57.1%	6,270	2.2%	246	10,977

Projections based on published official or unofficial county election board results,^[22] where available; otherwise, on the unofficial state board of elections results.^[23]

By congressional district

Although Barack Obama won the state of Ohio, John McCain carried 10 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democratic incumbents and one district that simultaneously elected a Democrat. Obama carried 8 districts, including one district held by a Republican incumbent.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	44.30%	54.66%	Steve Chabot (110th Congress)
Steve Driehaus (111th Congress)
2nd	58.61%	40.02%	Jean Schmidt
3rd	51.14%	47.39%	Mike Turner
4th	59.84%	38.16%	Jim Jordan
5th	52.95%	45.05%	Paul E. Gillmor (110th Congress)
Bob Latta (111th Congress)
6th	50.30%	47.60%	Charlie Wilson
7th	53.80%	44.57%	Dave Hobson (110th Congress)
Steve Austria (111th Congress)
8th	60.38%	37.87%	John Boehner
9th	36.17%	62.26%	Marcy Kaptur
10th	38.98%	59.16%	Dennis Kucinich
11th	14.39%	84.76%	Stephanie Tubbs Jones (110th Congress)
Marcia Fudge (111th Congress)
12th	44.62%	54.15%	Pat Tiberi
13th	44.62%	54.15%	Betty Sutton
14th	49.35%	49.13%	Steven LaTourette
15th	44.64%	53.61%	Deborah Pryce (110th Congress)
Mary Jo Kilroy (111th Congress)
16th	50.32%	47.69%	Ralph Regula (110th Congress)
John Boccieri (111th Congress)
17th	36.09%	61.84%	Tim Ryan
18th	52.81%	44.79%	Zack Space

Electors

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[25]

1. Catherine Barrett
2. Barbara Tuckerman
3. Wade Kapszukiewicz
4. Tamela Lee
5. Renee Cafaro
6. Victoria Wulsin
7. Craig Brown
8. Jimmy Cotner
9. Janet Carson
10. Bruce Johnson
11. Nannette Whaley
12. Martha Jane Brooks
13. Eugene Miller
14. Fran Alberty
15. Chris Redfern
16. John Kosty
17. Kelly Gillis
18. Charleta Tavares
19. Michael Todd
20. Ted Strickland

References

1. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
2. Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
4. Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
5. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
6. Based on Takeaway
7. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
8. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
9. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
10. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
11. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
12. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
13. roadto270
14. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
15. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/obama_takes_49_to_45_lead_in_ohio
16. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio". Retrieved 2008-11-28.
17. Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
18. Presidential Campaign Finance
19. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
20. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
21. Danny Shea (4 November 2008). "Fox News Calls Ohio For Obama As Rove Says McCain Needs Ohio To Win". Huffington Post.
22. "County Boards of Elections Directory". Retrieved 28 November 2008.
23. "President / Vice-President : Unofficial Results". Retrieved 28 November 2008.
24. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
25. U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates

See also