United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,455,713 1,259,171 Percentage 53.3% 46.1%

County Results   Kerry—80-90%   Kerry—50-60%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%   Bush—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Despite the fact that the state has voted for the eventual winner of the election in a presidential election since 1912, with the exception of the 1956, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state is more conservative than the rest of the country and that it's trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election.

Primaries

• Missouri Democratic primary, 2004
• Missouri Republican primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Leans Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Toss Up
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,026,802.^[3] Kerry raised $1,418,159.^[4]

Advertising and visits

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton, Missouri and Sedalia, Missouri.^[5]

Analysis

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City.

Results

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican Party	George W. Bush	1,455,713	53.3%	11
	Democratic Party	John Kerry	1,259,171	46.1%	0
	Libertarian Party	Michael Badnarik	9,831	0.4%	0
	Constitution Party	Michael Peroutka	5,355	0.2%	0
	Write In	Ralph Nader	1,294	0.1%	0
Totals			-	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)[6][7]					63.6%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#	Total
Adair	43.3%	4,938	55.8%	6,367	0.9%	99	11,404
Andrew	37.1%	3,069	62.1%	5,135	0.8%	62	8,266
Atchison	31.8%	1,005	67.7%	2,137	0.4%	14	3,156
Audrain	40.4%	4,318	58.9%	6,294	0.7%	71	10,683
Barry	30.3%	4,223	68.9%	9,599	0.8%	105	13,927
Barton	22.9%	1,373	76.3%	4,572	0.8%	46	5,991
Bates	40.1%	3,398	59.1%	5,004	0.8%	64	8,466
Benton	37.5%	3,381	61.9%	5,575	0.6%	53	9,009
Bollinger	29.8%	1,754	69.6%	4,102	0.7%	39	5,895
Boone	49.5%	37,643	49.7%	37,801	0.8%	602	76,046
Buchanan	46.9%	17,799	52.2%	19,812	0.9%	339	37,950
Butler	28.4%	4,666	71.1%	11,696	0.5%	79	16,441
Caldwell	38.5%	1,645	60.8%	2,593	0.7%	30	4,268
Callaway	36.9%	6,559	62.5%	11,108	0.6%	106	17,773
Camden	32.3%	6,296	67.2%	13,122	0.5%	101	19,519
Cape Girardeau	30.6%	10,568	68.9%	23,814	0.5%	183	34,565
Carroll	33.1%	1,568	66.5%	3,155	0.4%	18	4,741
Carter	34.7%	964	64.7%	1,797	0.6%	18	2,779
Cass	37.7%	16,681	61.6%	27,253	0.6%	283	44,217
Cedar	30.8%	1,910	68.3%	4,238	0.9%	55	6,203
Chariton	43.6%	1,892	55.8%	2,421	0.6%	27	4,340
Christian	28.9%	9,059	70.5%	22,102	0.6%	187	31,348
Clark	48.0%	1,794	50.8%	1,899	1.2%	43	3,736
Clay	46.3%	44,670	53.1%	51,193	0.6%	597	96,460
Clinton	43.7%	4,165	55.4%	5,287	0.9%	88	9,540
Cole	32.0%	11,753	67.4%	24,752	0.5%	196	36,701
Cooper	32.0%	2,400	67.4%	5,058	0.7%	50	7,508
Crawford	38.7%	3,632	60.6%	5,686	0.7%	63	9,381
Dade	27.0%	1,104	72.5%	2,963	0.5%	22	4,089
Dallas	33.2%	2,407	66.0%	4,788	0.9%	64	7,259
Daviess	37.0%	1,402	62.0%	2,351	1.1%	41	3,794
DeKalb	36.4%	1,707	62.8%	2,941	0.8%	38	4,686
Dent	29.6%	1,865	69.3%	4,369	1.1%	70	6,304
Douglas	27.5%	1,741	71.1%	4,498	1.4%	88	6,327
Dunklin	42.0%	4,901	57.5%	6,720	0.5%	56	11,677
Franklin	40.9%	18,556	58.3%	26,429	0.7%	333	45,318
Gasconade	32.8%	2,355	66.3%	4,753	0.9%	63	7,171
Gentry	36.3%	1,201	63.0%	2,085	0.8%	26	3,312
Greene	37.2%	46,657	62.2%	77,885	0.6%	724	125,266
Grundy	32.5%	1,561	66.0%	3,172	1.6%	75	4,808
Harrison	31.6%	1,279	67.4%	2,729	1.0%	40	4,048
Henry	41.0%	4,461	58.5%	6,361	0.5%	55	10,877
Hickory	42.0%	2,043	57.4%	2,791	0.7%	32	4,866
Holt	30.1%	811	69.3%	1,864	0.6%	16	2,691
Howard	40.1%	1,972	59.2%	2,915	0.7%	34	4,921
Howell	31.2%	5,118	67.8%	11,097	1.0%	164	16,379
Iron	46.1%	2,157	52.9%	2,477	1.0%	45	4,679
Jackson	58.1%	183,654	41.3%	130,500	0.6%	1,839	315,993
Jasper	28.8%	13,002	70.6%	31,846	0.5%	237	45,085
Jefferson	49.4%	46,057	50.0%	46,624	0.6%	583	93,264
Johnson	38.5%	7,790	60.6%	12,257	0.9%	189	20,236
Knox	38.5%	761	61.0%	1,207	0.5%	10	1,978
Laclede	28.3%	4,213	71.1%	10,578	0.5%	78	14,869
Lafayette	39.6%	6,412	59.7%	9,656	0.7%	114	16,182
Lawrence	28.5%	4,506	70.8%	11,194	0.7%	106	15,806
Lewis	37.8%	1,754	61.6%	2,862	0.6%	28	4,644
Lincoln	42.2%	8,368	57.0%	11,316	0.8%	155	19,839
Linn	41.4%	2,440	58.0%	3,422	0.6%	36	5,898
Livingston	35.9%	2,278	63.5%	4,029	0.6%	39	6,346
McDonald	28.7%	2,215	70.5%	5,443	0.9%	67	7,725
Macon	37.7%	2,856	61.7%	4,673	0.5%	41	7,570
Madison	40.1%	1,972	59.1%	2,905	0.8%	41	4,918
Maries	35.3%	1,563	63.9%	2,825	0.8%	36	4,424
Marion	36.7%	4,568	62.8%	7,815	0.6%	70	12,453
Mercer	32.0%	582	66.4%	1,207	1.5%	28	1,817
Miller	27.3%	2,959	72.0%	7,797	0.7%	75	10,831
Mississippi	44.8%	2,374	54.8%	2,903	0.4%	21	5,298
Moniteau	28.6%	1,913	70.9%	4,743	0.5%	35	6,691
Monroe	38.2%	1,647	61.1%	2,632	0.7%	28	4,307
Montgomery	37.3%	2,147	61.9%	3,563	0.9%	50	5,760
Morgan	34.8%	3,053	64.5%	5,657	0.7%	61	8,771
New Madrid	47.0%	3,716	52.5%	4,154	0.5%	37	7,907
Newton	27.5%	6,564	71.9%	17,187	0.6%	138	23,889
Nodaway	37.8%	3,830	61.5%	6,226	0.6%	63	10,119
Oregon	39.0%	1,823	59.3%	2,769	1.7%	81	4,673
Osage	25.1%	1,673	74.6%	4,975	0.3%	23	6,671
Ozark	33.2%	1,561	65.5%	3,083	1.3%	63	4,707
Pemiscot	49.7%	3,381	49.9%	3,398	0.4%	27	6,806
Perry	31.8%	2,621	67.7%	5,583	0.5%	43	8,247
Pettis	33.2%	5,801	66.3%	11,603	0.5%	92	17,496
Phelps	35.6%	6,666	63.5%	11,874	0.9%	160	18,700
Pike	45.6%	3,670	53.7%	4,314	0.7%	56	8,040
Platte	43.9%	18,412	55.5%	23,302	0.6%	256	41,970
Polk	30.3%	3,775	68.9%	8,586	0.7%	92	12,453
Pulaski	29.1%	3,551	70.5%	8,618	0.4%	52	12,221
Putnam	31.6%	772	67.9%	1,660	0.5%	13	2,445
Ralls	40.3%	2,031	59.3%	2,986	0.3%	17	5,034
Randolph	35.2%	3,586	64.2%	6,551	0.6%	61	10,198
Ray	46.7%	5,034	52.6%	5,673	0.8%	81	10,788
Reynolds	43.1%	1,449	56.4%	1,896	0.6%	19	3,364
Ripley	33.7%	1,907	65.3%	3,693	0.9%	53	5,653
St. Charles	40.9%	66,855	58.6%	95,826	0.5%	807	163,488
St. Clair	37.1%	1,841	62.4%	3,098	0.5%	26	4,965
St. Genevieve	52.6%	4,281	46.5%	3,791	0.9%	74	8,146
St. Francois	46.9%	10,748	52.7%	12,087	0.4%	98	22,933
St. Louis City	80.3%	116,133	19.2%	27,793	0.5%	712	144,638
St. Louis County	54.4%	295,284	45.1%	244,969	0.5%	2,730	542,983
Saline	45.1%	4,479	54.2%	5,389	0.7%	71	9,939
Schuyler	44.0%	894	55.3%	1,124	0.6%	13	2,031
Scotland	37.7%	828	61.5%	1,352	0.8%	17	2,197
Scott	34.7%	6,057	64.9%	11,330	0.3%	61	17,448
Shannon	38.8%	1,618	60.3%	2,511	0.9%	38	4,167
Shelby	34.3%	1,201	65.1%	2,280	0.6%	21	3,502
Stoddard	29.8%	3,946	69.7%	9,242	0.5%	64	13,252
Stone	30.1%	4,578	69.4%	10,534	0.5%	77	15,189
Sullivan	38.1%	1,178	60.9%	1,880	1.0%	31	3,089
Taney	29.1%	5,601	70.4%	13,578	0.5%	101	19,280
Texas	33.3%	3,664	65.7%	7,234	1.1%	120	11,018
Vernon	35.7%	3,206	63.7%	5,732	0.6%	54	8,992
Warren	40.7%	5,461	58.7%	7,883	0.7%	88	13,432
Washington	48.6%	4,459	50.6%	4,641	0.8%	78	9,178
Wayne	36.3%	2,250	63.2%	3,919	0.6%	35	6,204
Webster	31.2%	4,657	68.2%	10,194	0.6%	93	14,944
Worth	38.5%	436	61.0%	691	0.4%	5	1,132
Wright	26.2%	2,188	73.0%	6,090	0.8%	68	8,346

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 9 congressional districts.^[8]

District	Bush	Kerry
1st	25%	75%	William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd	60%	40%	Todd Akin
3rd	43%	57%	Dick Gephardt
Russ Carnahan
4th	64%	35%	Ike Skelton
5th	40%	59%	Karen McCarthy
Emanuel Cleaver
6th	57%	42%	Sam Graves
7th	67%	32%	Roy Blunt
8th	64%	36%	Jo Ann Emerson
9th	59%	41%	Kenny Hulshof

Electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.^[9]

1. Rosemary Kochner
2. Fred Dyer
3. Miriam Stonebraker
4. Carolyn McDowell
5. Cathy Owens
6. Steve Krueger
7. Emory Melton
8. John Schudy
9. Richard Hardy
10. John Marshalk
11. Warren Erdman

References

1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
2. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=29
3. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
5. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MO/
6. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
7. Carnahan Announces Record Number of Missourians Cast Ballots in General Election from the website of the Missouri Secretary of State
8. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
9. http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/2004general/presElectors_MORepublican.asp

See also