United States presidential election in Indiana, 2004

United States presidential election in Indiana, 2004
Indiana
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,479,438 969,011
Percentage 59.9% 39.3%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Indiana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The Hoosier state had not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, however in the next election the state bucked this trend and voted for Senator Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double digit margin of victory and with at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,491,828.[3] Kerry raised $681,272.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign visited or advertised in this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Indiana has long been considered to be a Republican stronghold.[7][8] The Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) rates Indiana as a R+8. Indiana was one of only ten states to support Republican Wendell Willkie in 1940.[9] On 14 occasions has the Republican candidate defeated the Democrat by a double digit margin in the state, including six times where a Republican won the state by more than 20%.[10] In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a wide margin while the election was much closer overall. The state has only supported a Democrat for president five times since 1900. In 1912, Woodrow Wilson became the first Democrat to win the state with 43% of the vote. 20 years later, Franklin D. Roosevelt won the state with 55% of the vote over incumbent Republican Herbert Hoover. Roosevelt won the state again in 1936. In 1964, 56% of voters supported Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican Barry Goldwater. Statistically, Indiana is more of a stronghold for Republican presidential candidates than for candidates elected to state government. Whereas only five Democratic presidential nominees have carried Indiana since 1900, 11 Democrats were elected governor during that time. Before Mitch Daniels became governor in 2005, Democrats had held the office for 16 consecutive years.

Historically, Republicans have been strongest in the eastern and central portions of the state, while Democrats have been strongest in the northwestern part of the state. Occasionally, certain counties in the southern part of the state will vote Democratic. Marion County, Indiana's most populated county, supported the Republican candidates from 1968 to 2000, before backing the Democrats in the 2004 , 2008  and 2012  elections. Indiana's second most populated county, Lake County, is a strong supporter of the Democratic party that has not voted for a Republican since 1972.[10] In 2005, the Bay Area Center for Voting Research rated the most liberal and conservative cities in the United States on voting statistics in the 2004 presidential election, based on 237 cities with populations of more than 100,000. Five Indiana cities were mentioned in the study. On the liberal side, Gary was ranked second and South Bend came in at 83. Regarding conservative cities, Fort Wayne was 44th, Evansville was 60th and Indianapolis was 82nd on the list.[11]

Results

[12]
2004 United States presidential election in Indiana[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,479,438 59.94%
Democratic John Kerry 969,011 39.26%
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 18,058 0.73%
Write In Ralph Nader 1,328 0.1%
Write In David Cobb 102 0.0%
Write In John Joseph Kennedy 37 0.0%
Write In Walt Brown 22 0.0%
Write In Lawson Mitchell Bone 6 0.0%
Majority 510,427
Turnout 2,468,002 58%

Results breakdown

By county

Kerry won only 4 of Indiana's counties compared to 88 for Bush.[14]

County Bush Votes Kerry Votes Others Votes Total
Adams 73.0% 9,734 26.3% 3,512 0.7% 94 13,340
Allen 63.3% 82,013 36.0% 46,710 0.7% 886 129,609
Bartholomew 67.0% 19,093 32.2% 9,191 0.8% 231 28,515
Benton 70.1% 2,797 28.4% 1,135 1.5% 60 3,992
Blackford 64.1% 3,447 35.4% 1,903 0.6% 30 5,380
Boone 74.5% 17,055 24.6% 5,636 0.9% 207 22,898
Brown 61.6% 4,512 37.2% 2,730 1.2% 88 7,330
Carroll 67.9% 5,868 31.1% 2,689 0.9% 81 8,638
Cass 68.0% 9,480 31.0% 4,315 1.0% 136 13,931
Clark 57.9% 24,495 41.7% 17,648 0.5% 194 42,337
Clay 68.3% 7,361 30.9% 3,333 0.8% 89 10,783
Clinton 71.3% 8,471 28.1% 3,335 0.6% 71 11,877
Crawford 57.0% 2,609 42.2% 1,932 0.7% 33 4,574
Daviess 74.9% 7,936 24.3% 2,573 0.8% 90 10,599
Dearborn 67.9% 14,231 31.5% 6,596 0.7% 142 20,969
Decatur 73.5% 7,499 25.7% 2,621 0.8% 79 10,199
DeKalb 68.0% 10,468 31.2% 4,810 0.8% 125 15,403
Delaware 56.5% 27,064 42.6% 20,436 0.9% 439 47,939
Dubois 68.7% 11,726 30.5% 5,210 0.8% 130 17,066
Elkhart 70.0% 42,967 29.3% 17,966 0.7% 447 61,380
Fayette 60.8% 5,761 38.3% 3,626 0.9% 81 9,468
Floyd 58.7% 19,877 40.9% 13,857 0.5% 156 33,890
Fountain 67.4% 5,260 31.7% 2,477 0.9% 67 7,804
Franklin 69.8% 6,977 29.3% 2,925 0.9% 90 9,992
Fulton 69.3% 6,027 30.0% 2,607 0.8% 69 8,703
Gibson 62.5% 9,133 36.8% 5,378 0.7% 103 14,614
Grant 68.4% 18,769 31.0% 8,509 0.7% 182 27,460
Greene 64.5% 8,609 34.5% 4,606 1.0% 137 13,352
Hamilton 74.2% 77,887 25.2% 26,388 0.6% 631 104,906
Hancock 74.5% 20,771 24.8% 6,912 0.7% 184 27,867
Harrison 63.6% 11,015 35.6% 6,171 0.7% 124 17,310
Hendricks 73.5% 38,430 25.9% 13,548 0.6% 324 52,302
Henry 64.1% 13,137 35.0% 7,176 0.9% 191 20,504
Howard 64.1% 23,714 35.1% 12,998 0.8% 309 37,021
Huntington 74.3% 11,617 24.8% 3,877 0.9% 133 15,627
Jackson 68.0% 11,083 31.2% 5,092 0.8% 134 16,309
Jasper 68.0% 8,056 31.1% 3,678 0.9% 110 11,844
Jay 65.9% 5,427 33.3% 2,740 0.8% 65 8,232
Jefferson 59.8% 7,763 39.4% 5,117 0.7% 91 12,971
Jennings 65.3% 6,864 33.6% 3,538 1.1% 115 10,517
Johnson 73.7% 37,765 25.6% 13,109 0.7% 381 51,255
Knox 63.4% 9,990 35.9% 5,649 0.7% 107 15,746
Kosciusko 78.1% 22,136 21.1% 5,977 0.9% 247 28,360
LaGrange 71.4% 6,430 28.0% 2,523 0.6% 50 9,003
Lake 38.2% 71,903 61.0% 114,743 0.7% 1,376 188,022
LaPorte 49.1% 20,916 49.6% 21,114 1.4% 576 42,606
Lawrence 69.0% 12,207 30.2% 5,346 0.8% 145 17,698
Madison 59.3% 32,526 39.9% 21,882 0.8% 447 54,855
Marion 48.6% 156,072 50.6% 162,249 0.8% 2,517 320,838
Marshall 67.8% 12,074 31.4% 5,593 0.8% 147 17,814
Martin 68.3% 3,414 30.5% 1,522 1.2% 60 4,996
Miami 70.4% 9,600 28.5% 3,886 1.0% 142 13,628
Monroe 45.2% 22,834 53.4% 26,965 1.3% 668 50,467
Montgomery 74.9% 10,901 24.3% 3,536 0.8% 111 14,548
Morgan 73.8% 19,197 25.5% 6,650 0.7% 182 26,029
Newton 64.2% 3,757 34.7% 2,032 1.0% 59 5,848
Noble 69.3% 10,859 30.0% 4,703 0.7% 117 15,679
Ohio 60.7% 1,796 38.5% 1,139 0.8% 23 2,958
Orange 65.7% 5,683 33.3% 2,885 1.0% 84 8,652
Owen 65.8% 5,000 33.4% 2,536 0.9% 68 7,604
Parke 65.3% 4,550 33.9% 2,362 0.8% 59 6,971
Perry 49.8% 4,137 49.7% 4,131 0.6% 47 8,315
Pike 60.3% 3,745 38.9% 2,418 0.8% 49 6,212
Porter 53.6% 34,794 45.3% 29,388 1.1% 691 64,873
Posey 65.4% 7,833 34.1% 4,085 0.6% 68 11,986
Pulaski 67.6% 3,797 31.2% 1,750 1.2% 67 5,614
Putnam 67.8% 8,908 31.2% 4,103 1.0% 125 13,136
Randolph 64.7% 7,172 34.4% 3,812 1.0% 108 11,092
Ripley 69.5% 8,224 29.7% 3,510 0.8% 100 11,834
Rush 72.3% 5,363 27.0% 2,000 0.8% 58 7,421
Saint Joseph 50.9% 55,254 48.5% 52,637 0.7% 728 108,616
Scott 55.2% 4,793 44.0% 3,822 0.7% 62 8,677
Shelby 71.1% 11,397 28.2% 4,519 0.7% 111 16,027
Spencer 59.8% 5,934 39.5% 3,920 0.7% 70 9,924
Starke 54.2% 4,846 44.6% 3,987 1.2% 104 8,937
Steuben 65.3% 8,433 33.7% 4,345 1.0% 127 12,905
Sullivan 59.6% 4,999 39.8% 3,341 0.6% 54 8,394
Switzerland 58.9% 2,161 40.3% 1,479 0.8% 31 3,671
Tippecanoe 59.0% 30,897 39.8% 20,818 1.2% 645 52,360
Tipton 71.3% 5,628 27.9% 2,203 0.8% 61 7,892
Union 67.8% 2,266 31.3% 1,045 1.0% 33 3,344
Vanderburgh 58.7% 41,463 40.7% 28,767 0.6% 424 70,654
Vermillion 50.4% 3,536 48.8% 3,424 0.8% 57 7,017
Vigo 52.8% 20,988 46.4% 18,426 0.8% 330 39,744
Wabash 70.6% 9,607 28.8% 3,920 0.6% 75 13,602
Warren 64.8% 2,565 34.2% 1,356 1.0% 39 3,960
Warrick 65.1% 16,930 34.5% 8,980 0.4% 115 26,025
Washington 63.6% 6,915 35.7% 3,879 0.8% 86 10,880
Wayne 60.0% 16,586 39.0% 10,775 1.1% 296 27,657
Wells 74.2% 9,168 25.2% 3,112 0.6% 74 12,354
White 67.3% 6,974 31.6% 3,277 1.1% 115 10,366
Whitley 70.6% 9,512 28.8% 3,880 0.7% 89 13,481

By congressional district

Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[15]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 44% 55% Pete Visclosky
2nd 56% 43% Chris Chocola
3rd 68% 31% Mark Souder
4th 69% 30% Steve Buyer
5th 71% 28% Dan Burton
6th 64% 35% Mike Pence
7th 42% 58% Julia Carson
8th 62% 38% John Hostettler
9th 59% 40% Baron Hill
Mike Sodrel

Electors

Technically the voters of Indiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Indiana is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.[16]

  1. Kenneth Culp
  2. John Zentz
  3. Michael Miner
  4. Saundra Huddleston
  5. Leeann Cook
  6. Ted Ogle
  7. Melissa Proffitt Reese
  8. Dudley Curea
  9. Larry Shickles
  10. James Kittle
  11. Jean Ann Harcourt

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=18
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ Associated Press (2008-10-01). "Indiana poll shows tight race with McCain, Obama". Fox News Channel. Retrieved 2009-08-10.
  8. ↑ Purnick, Joyce (2006-10-21). "The 2006 Campaign: Struggle for the House; In a G.O.P. Stronghold, 3 Districts in Indiana Are Now Battlegrounds". The New York Times. Retrieved 2009-08-10.
  9. ↑ "Indiana". Funk & Wagnalls New World Encyclopedia. Funk & Wagnalls.
  10. 1 2 "Presidential General Election Map Comparison". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2009-08-11.
  11. ↑ Modie, Neil (2005-08-12). "Where have Seattle's lefties gone?". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Retrieved 2009-08-11.
  12. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.
  13. ↑ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. 2004-11-02. Retrieved 2008-11-07.
  14. ↑ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, by County". Indiana Secretary of State. 2004-11-02. Retrieved 2008-11-07.
  15. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  16. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/

See also

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