United States presidential election in Montana, 2004

United States presidential election in Montana, 2004
Montana
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 266,063 173,710
Percentage 59.1% 38.6%

County Results
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
  Bush—80-90%
  Bush—>90%
  Kerry—50-60%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 3 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state typically votes for Democrats at the state level, having two Democratic senators: Max Baucus and Jon Tester, as well as a very popular governor Brian Schweitzer. Montana has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1968 except in 1992, when the state slightly preferred Democrat Bill Clinton to Republican George H. W. Bush. Although third party and independents performed well, obtaining a total of 2.4% of the vote.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $385,635.[3] Kerry raised $145,679.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% and winning Garfield County with 90% of the vote. Kerry only won 5 counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.

Results

United States presidential election in Montana, 2004[7]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush 266,063 59.1% 3
Democratic John Kerry 173,710 38.6% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 6,168 1.4% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 1,764 0.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,733 0.4% 0
Green David Cobb 996 0.2% 0
Write Ins. - 11 0.0% 0
Totals - 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County Bush # Bush % Kerry # Kerry % Other # Other % Total #
Beaverhead County, Montana 2,102 76.35% 599 21.76% 52 1.89% 2,753
Big Horn County, Montana 2,026 47.04% 2,213 51.38% 68 1.58% 4,307
Blaine County, Montana 1,484 52.48% 1,300 45.97% 44 1.56% 2,828
Broadwater County, Montana 1,778 75.56% 533 22.65% 42 1.78% 2,353
Carbon County, Montana 3,341 62.80% 1,847 34.72% 132 2.48% 5,320
Carter County, Montana 623 87.87% 76 10.72% 10 1.41% 709
Cascade County, Montana 15,399 58.28% 10,425 39.46% 598 2.26% 26,422
Chouteau County, Montana 1,921 65.70% 941 32.18% 62 2.12% 2,924
Custer County, Montana 3,294 65.31% 1,629 32.30% 121 2.40% 5,044
Daniels County, Montana 764 68.28% 326 29.13% 29 2.59% 1,119
Dawson County, Montana 2,884 64.32% 1,494 33.32% 106 2.36% 4,484
Deer Lodge County, Montana 1,161 38.69% 1,775 59.15% 65 2.17% 3,001
Fallon County, Montana 1,178 79.01% 289 19.38% 24 1.61% 1,491
Fergus County, Montana 2,006 73.59% 668 24.50% 52 1.91% 2,726
Flathead County, Montana 26,019 67.27% 11,587 29.96% 1,072 2.77% 38,678
Gallatin County, Montana 13,348 54.19% 10,661 43.28% 622 2.53% 24,631
Garfield County, Montana 590 90.08% 52 7.94% 13 1.98% 655
Glacier County, Montana 1,828 40.07% 2,641 57.89% 93 2.04% 4,562
Golden Valley County, Montana 396 75.86% 119 22.80% 7 1.34% 522
Granite County, Montana 1,144 71.28% 404 25.17% 57 3.55% 1,605
Hill County, Montana 2,992 55.19% 2,300 42.43% 129 2.38% 5,421
Jefferson County, Montana 3,843 65.51% 1,880 32.05% 143 2.44% 5,866
Judith Basin County, Montana 943 73.39% 322 25.06% 20 1.56% 1,285
Lake County, Montana 3,952 60.41% 2,425 37.07% 165 2.52% 6,542
Lewis and Clark County, Montana 16,432 55.30% 12,655 42.59% 629 2.12% 29,716
Liberty County, Montana 734 71.06% 281 27.20% 18 1.74% 1,033
Lincoln County, Montana 3,914 68.40% 1,656 28.94% 152 2.66% 5,722
Madison County, Montana 2,868 72.94% 983 25.00% 81 2.06% 3,932
McCone County, Montana 365 63.81% 187 32.69% 20 3.50% 572
Meagher County, Montana 698 71.74% 247 25.39% 28 2.88% 973
Mineral County, Montana 1,242 67.61% 542 29.50% 53 2.89% 1,837
Missoula County, Montana 22,711 45.66% 25,598 51.47% 1,429 2.87% 49,738
Musselshell County, Montana 1,661 73.99% 538 23.96% 46 2.05% 2,245
Park County, Montana 4,771 58.06% 3,199 38.93% 247 3.01% 8,217
Petroleum County, Montana 228 78.08% 55 18.84% 9 3.08% 292
Phillips County, Montana 1,042 77.82% 274 20.46% 23 1.72% 1,339
Pondera County, Montana 1,852 64.78% 956 33.44% 51 1.78% 2,859
Powder River County, Montana 856 83.27% 154 14.98% 18 1.75% 1,028
Powell County, Montana 1,968 70.51% 751 26.91% 72 2.58% 2,791
Prairie County, Montana 546 74.18% 181 24.59% 9 1.22% 736
Ravalli County, Montana 13,224 66.81% 6,128 30.96% 440 2.22% 19,792
Richland County, Montana 3,110 72.19% 1,120 26.00% 78 1.81% 4,308
Roosevelt County, Montana 1,760 43.74% 2,193 54.50% 71 1.76% 4,024
Rosebud County, Montana 1,982 55.29% 1,520 42.40% 83 2.32% 3,585
Sanders County, Montana 3,461 67.18% 1,501 29.13% 190 3.69% 5,152
Sheridan County, Montana 1,159 56.90% 845 41.48% 33 1.62% 2,037
Silver Bow County, Montana 3,561 40.15% 5,096 57.45% 213 2.40% 8,870
Stillwater County, Montana 2,856 73.08% 966 24.72% 86 2.20% 3,908
Sweet Grass County, Montana 977 75.44% 292 22.55% 26 2.01% 1,295
Teton County, Montana 2,232 66.45% 1,047 31.17% 80 2.38% 3,359
Toole County, Montana 1,582 68.48% 690 29.87% 38 1.65% 2,310
Treasure County, Montana 348 72.20% 121 25.10% 13 2.70% 482
Valley County, Montana 2,476 61.67% 1,429 35.59% 110 2.74% 4,015
Wheatland County, Montana 705 71.57% 250 25.38% 30 3.05% 985
Wibaux County, Montana 407 72.68% 144 25.71% 9 1.61% 560
Yellowstone County, Montana 40,863 61.70% 24,101 36.39% 1,260 1.90% 66,224

[8]

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Bush Kerry Representative
At-large 59.1% 38.6% Denny Rehberg

Electors

Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[9]

  1. Jack Galt
  2. Thelma Baker
  3. John Brenden

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=30
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  8. ↑ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2004/mt/prescounties/
  9. ↑ http://www.metnet.state.mt.us/newslinks/81C0F478-3B9ACA00-01B681B4

See also

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