Missouri Republican primary, 2016

Missouri Republican primary, 2016

March 15, 2016

Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich Home state New York Texas Ohio Delegate count 37 15 0 Popular vote 383,631 381,666 94,857 Percentage 40.84% 40.63% 10.10%   Candidate Marco Rubio Home state Florida Delegate count 0 Popular vote 57,244 Percentage 6.09%

Missouri results by county.   Donald Trump   Ted Cruz

The Missouri Republican primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Missouri primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, along with the Democratic contest in Missouri. The hotly contested primary was won by businessman Donald Trump by a margin of 0.21% over Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

Background

In the 2012 primaries, the state of Missouri held two separate contests, a "beauty contest" primary on February 7 and caucuses beginning on March 15. Missouri Governor Jay Nixon signed SB892 in 2014 to move the state's presidential primary contest to March.^[1] In addition, the caucus was removed so the primary counted for delegates. According to Missouri Republican Party chair John Hancock, the move was to encourage candidates to campaign in all parts of the state and to avoid the chaotic convention fights in the 2012 campaign.^[2]

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.^[3][4]

Run-up to the election

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Primary results	March 15, 2016	Donald Trump 40.84%	Ted Cruz 40.63%	John Kasich 10.10%	Marco Rubio 6.09%, Ben Carson 0.88%, Jeb Bush 0.36%, Mike Huckabee 0.23%, Rand Paul 0.19%, Chris Christie 0.18%, Rick Santorum 0.08%, Carly Fiorina 0.07%
Fort Hayes State University[5] Margin of error: ± 7% Sample size: 208	March 3–10, 2016	Donald Trump 36%	Ted Cruz 29%	Marco Rubio 9%	John Kasich 8%, Other 1%, Undecided 17%
Remington Research Group Margin of error: ± 2.6% Sample size: 1,528	December 18–19, 2015	Donald Trump 33%	Ted Cruz 23%	Marco Rubio 12%	Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 14%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: 4.7% Sample size: 440	August 7–8, 2015	Donald Trump 23%	Ben Carson 11%	Jeb Bush 11%	Mike Huckabee 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, John Kasich 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else/Undecided 2%

While there was limited polling in Missouri prior to the primary contest, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump were projected to be the main contenders, with Trump considered to be the favorite. Missouri was considered an important state due to its "winner-take-most" nature, which could allow Trump to accrue a large net gain of delegates with a small change in the popular vote.^[6]

Results

Missouri Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	383,631	40.84%	37	0	37
Ted Cruz	381,666	40.63%	15	0	15
John Kasich	94,857	10.10%	0	0	0
Marco Rubio	57,244	6.09%	0	0	0
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	8,233	0.88%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	3,361	0.36%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	3,225	0.34%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	2,148	0.23%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	1,777	0.19%	0	0	0
Chris Christie(withdrawn)	1,681	0.18%	0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	732	0.08%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	615	0.07%	0	0	0
Jim Lynch (withdrawn)	100	0.01%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	939,270	100.00%	52	0	52
Source: The Green Papers

Following the March 15 contests, Marco Rubio suspended his campaign, largely due to a poor performance in Florida.^[7]

Possible Recount

Missouri elections law allows the second-place candidate to request a recount if they are defeated in the election by less than one half of a percent.^[8] Speculation arose that Cruz would ask for a recount, as he lost the primary by less than 2,000 votes, or 0.21 percent.^[9] However, Cruz decided not to request a recount of the election, thus conceding the primary to Trump.^[10] The recount was considered important because 12 of the 52 delegates to the Republican National Convention were awarded winner-take-all to the winner of the state.

References

1. "SB 892 Changes the presidential primary election date from February to March". Retrieved 1 August 2016.
2. "http://www.senate.mo.gov/14info/BTS_Web/Bill.aspx?SessionType=R&BillID=30702539". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved 1 August 2016. External link in |title= (help)
3. "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
4. "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
5. "Missouri Poll Results". Fort Hayes State University. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
6. Wasserman, David. "Don't Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2 August 2016.
7. "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
8. "Section 115.601.1". Missouri Revised Statutes. Missouri Legislature. Retrieved 3 August 2016.
9. "Recount Could Be Possible for Missouri Republican Primary After Results Are Certified". KOAMTV.
10. Lieb, David (19 April 2016). "Cruz Won't Seek Recount of Missouri Primary Loss to Trump". Bloomberg. Retrieved 3 August 2016.