New York Republican primary, 2016

New York Republican primary, 2016

April 19, 2016

Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz Home state New York Ohio Texas Delegate count 89 6 0 Popular vote 554,522 231,166 136,083 Percentage 59.21% 24.68% 14.53%

The 2016 New York Republican primary was held on April 19 in the U.S. state of New York as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Donald Trump won his home state with 59% of the vote and picked up 89 pledged delegates. He won over all age groups, income levels and political ideologies,^[1] with most voters saying they want a candidate who "can bring change" and "tells it like it is". Most voters supported Trump's proposed ban on Muslim immigration to the United States.^[2]

The Democratic Party also held their own New York primary on the same day which was won by Hillary Clinton. Apart from that, no other primaries were scheduled for that day by either party.

The state of the campaign

National situation

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.^[3][4]

On March 15's primaries, Donald Trump took four of the five contests- Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Trump however was defeated in Ohio by John Kasich presidential campaign, 2016, losing all 66 of the state's delegates. Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after losing the Florida contest,^[5] leaving just Cruz and Kasich in the race to oppose Trump.

On March 22, Trump won the Arizona contest and all of its 58 pledged delegates, while Cruz capitalized on Trump's comments critical of Mitt Romney's Mormon faith^[6] to take the state of Utah and its 40 delegates.

The month of April brought several strong performances for Cruz. He capitalized on a weak ground game in the Donald Trump campaign to win the conventions in North Dakota and Colorado, despite criticism from Donald Trump.^[7] In addition, Ted Cruz won the valuable Wisconsin primary and with it 36 of the state's 42 delegates. Many considered the probability of a "contested" Republican National Convention as it was considered doubtful that Trump would receive the requisite 1,237 delegates.^[8]

New York situation

Being Donald Trump's home state, New York was expected to be one of his strongest states in the primary contests. While Trump himself said that he would be satisfied with only one half of the delegates, most prognosticators said that Trump would have to perform extremely strongly in the state in order to avoid a contested convention.^[9] Ted Cruz's attacks in a Fox Business Network primary debate in South Carolina, criticizing Donald Trump for holding what he referred to as "New York values" came under fire as Cruz was campaigning in New York as well.^[10] This, combined with Trump's strong performances in the Northeast, especially Massachusetts, meant that Trump was considered a favorite with Kasich as his main challenger.

Opinion polling

List of polls

Winner Donald Trump Primary date April 19, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other Primary results April 19, 2016 Donald Trump 59.21% John Kasich 24.68% Ted Cruz 14.53% Emerson College[11] Margin of error: ± 5.11% Sample size: 361 April 15 – 17, 2016 Donald Trump 55% John Kasich 21% Ted Cruz 18% Undecided 5% CBS News/YouGov[12] Margin of error: ± 5.9% Sample size: 705 April 13 – 15, 2016 Donald Trump 54% Ted Cruz 21% John Kasich 19% Undecided 6% Optimus[13] Margin of error: ± 0.822% Sample size: 14201 April 11 – 14, 2016 Donald Trump 49% John Kasich 23% Ted Cruz 14% Undecided 14% Gravis Marketing/One America News Network[14] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 481 April 13, 2016 Donald Trump 57% John Kasich 22% Ted Cruz 20% NBC News/WSJ/Marist[15] Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 313 April 10 – 13, 2016 Donald Trump 54% John Kasich 25% Ted Cruz 16% Undecided 5% Siena College[16] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 469 April 6 – 11, 2016 Donald Trump 50% John Kasich 27% Ted Cruz 17% Other 6% Quinnipiac University[17] Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 550 April 6 – 11, 2016 Donald Trump 55% John Kasich 20% Ted Cruz 19% Undecided 6% Public Policy Polling[18] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 483 April 7 – 10, 2016 Donald Trump 51% John Kasich 25% Ted Cruz 20% Undecided 4% NBC News/WSJ/Marist[19] Margin of error: ± 6.1% Sample size: 259 April 6 – 10, 2016 Donald Trump 54% John Kasich 21% Ted Cruz 18% Undecided 5%, Other 1% Baruch College/New York 1[20] Margin of error: ± 5.8% Sample size: 324 April 5 – 10, 2016 Donald Trump 60% John Kasich 17% Ted Cruz 14% Undecided 7%, Refused 2% Liberty Research[21] Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 6041 April 6 – 7, 2016 Donald Trump 52% John Kasich 23% Ted Cruz 19% Undecided 6% Emerson College[22] Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 321 April 6 – 7, 2016 Donald Trump 56% Ted Cruz 22% John Kasich 17% Undecided 4%, Other 1% Fox News[23] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 602 April 4 – 7, 2016 Donald Trump 54% John Kasich 22% Ted Cruz 15% Undecided 6%, Other 1% Gravis Marketing/One America News[24] Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 857 April 5–6, 2016 Donald Trump 56% John Kasich 24% Ted Cruz 20% Monmouth University[25] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 302 April 3 – 5, 2016 Donald Trump 52% John Kasich 25% Ted Cruz 17% Undecided 6% CBS News/YouGov[26] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 657 March 29-April 1, 2016 Donald Trump 52% Ted Cruz 21% John Kasich 20% Other/Undecided 7% Quinnipiac University[27] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 457 March 22 – 29, 2016 Donald Trump 56% Ted Cruz 20% John Kasich 19% Undecided 4% Liberty Research[28] Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 1795 March 24 – 26, 2016 Donald Trump 55% John Kasich 22% Ted Cruz 19% Undecided 4% Optimus[29] Margin of error: ± 0.8% Sample size: 14232 March 22 – 24, 2016 Donald Trump 47% John Kasich 22% Ted Cruz 15% Undecided 16% Emerson College[30] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 298 March 14 – 16, 2016 Donald Trump 64% Ted Cruz 12% John Kasich 1% Other 19%, Undecided 1% Siena College[31] Margin of error: ± 6.7% Sample size: 229 February 28 – March 3, 2016 Donald Trump 45% Marco Rubio 18% John Kasich 18% Ted Cruz 11%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% Siena College[32] Margin of error: ± 7.0% Sample size: 235 January 31 – February 3, 2016 Donald Trump 34% Ted Cruz 16% Marco Rubio 16% Chris Christie 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, John Kasich 4%, Someone else 2%, Don't know/No opinion 10% Siena College Margin of error: ± 6.7% Sample size: 214 September 14–17, 2015 Donald Trump 34% Ben Carson 14% Jeb Bush 11% Chris Christie 9%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 4%, Ted Cruz 3%, George Pataki 3%, Scott Walker 0%, Other 1%, None of them 5%, Undecided 5% Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 356 May 28 – June 1, 2015 George Pataki 11% Marco Rubio 11% Jeb Bush 10% Scott Walker 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 6%, Donald Trump 6%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, DK/NA 14%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Someone else 1% Siena College Margin of error: ± 6.6% Sample size: 223 April 19–23, 2015 Chris Christie 25% Jeb Bush 20% Marco Rubio 9% Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Other 8%, Undecided 24% Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 327 March 11–16, 2015 Jeb Bush 13% Scott Walker 13% Chris Christie 12% Marco Rubio 10%, Rand Paul 8%, Ben Carson 6%, George Pataki 6%, Ted Cruz 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 18% Marist College Margin of error: ± 7.6% Sample size: 167 November 18–20, 2013 Chris Christie 40% Rand Paul 10% Marco Rubio 10% Jeb Bush 8%, Paul Ryan 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Susana Martinez 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 15%

Results

New York Republican primary, April 19, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	554,522	59.21%	89	0	89
John Kasich	231,166	24.68%	6	0	6
Ted Cruz	136,083	14.53%	0	0	0
Blank & Void	14,756	1.58%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	936,527	100.00%	95	0	95
Source: The Green Papers

Of the 62 counties in the state, Donald Trump won 61, with the one loss being his home county of New York County (Manhattan), where John Kasich won. Trump's strongest showings were in Richmond County (Staten Island), Nassau County, Queens, Suffolk County and Erie County.^[33] John Kasich won Manhattan with a plurality and placed a strong second in upstate college areas such as Cortland and Syracuse.

Ultimately, Trump was able to get the full slate of delegates in 22 out of 27 congressional districts, due to meeting or exceeding the 50% threshold in each.^[34] Kasich won 2 delegates in the 12th district (Upper East Side Manhattan/Queens), and one each in the 10th (Jewish Manhattan/Brooklyn neighborhoods), 13th (Harlem), 20th (Albany), and 24th (Syracuse) districts. Ted Cruz won 14.5% of the vote but did not win any delegates.

References

1. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-06-29.
2. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-06-29.
3. "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
4. "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
5. "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
6. Schleifer, Theodore. "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Retrieved 5 August 2016.
7. "Trump escalates challenge, calls Colorado GOP vote "a crooked deal"". The Denver Post. Retrieved 5 August 2016.
8. Conlin, Michelle; Gibson, Ginger. "Trump opponents buoyed after front-runner's Wisconsin loss". Reuters. Retrieved 5 August 2016.
9. Finnegan, Michael. "The cold, hard math of GOP delegate fight makes a big New York win crucial for Donald Trump". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 5 August 2016.
10. Diamond, Jeremy. "Trump hits Cruz over 'New York values' on Long Island". CNN. Retrieved 5 August 2016.
11. "Clinton and Trump Poised to Regain Momentum in the Empire State; NY Looks Safe For Dems In General" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved 18 April 2016.
12. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker New York" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved 18 April 2016.
13. "New York Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
14. "New York Polling Results". Gravis Marketing. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
15. "Donald Trump Holds 29-Point Lead in NY: NBC4/WSJ/Marist Poll". Marist College. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
16. "Bernie Narrows Gap; Hillary Still Leads By 10 Points; Trump Maintains Huge Lead, Kasich 2nd, Cruz 3rd" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved 14 April 2016.
17. "BLACK VOTES MATTER FOR CLINTON IN NEW YORK, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; TRUMP SWEEPS ALL GROUPS AGAINST CRUZ OR KASICH" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
18. "New York Hates Ted Cruz; Trump, Clinton Lead Big" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
19. "New York Questionnaire" (PDF). Marist College. Retrieved 12 April 2016.
20. "NY1/BARUCH COLLEGE NEW YORK STATE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLL" (PDF). Baruch College. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
21. "Trump Maintains Large Lead In Empire State Primary". Liberty Opinion Research LLC. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
22. "Clinton and Trump Lose Ground in NY, but Still in Control; Voters Weigh in on Open-Conventions" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved 9 April 2016.
23. "Fox News Poll: 2016 New York State primary". Shaw and Company Research. Retrieved 11 April 2016.
24. "New York Polling Results". Gravis Marketing. Retrieved 18 April 2016.
25. "NEW YORK: TRUMP OVER 50 PERCENT" (PDF). Monmouth University. Retrieved 7 April 2016.
26. "Close races in Wisconsin; Clinton and Trump ahead in New York". YouGov. Retrieved 4 April 2016.
27. "Clinton, Trump Have Big Leads In New York Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Adopted Daughter Thumps Native Son, Edges Kasich". Quinnipiac University. Retrieved 31 March 2016.
28. "TRUMP LEADS BY 33% IN NEW YORK GOP PRIMARY". Liberty Opinion Research LLC. Retrieved 30 March 2016.
29. "New York Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved 30 March 2016.
30. "EMERSON POLL: TRUMP, CLINTON TROUNCING THEIR RIVALS IN NEW YORK; IN GENERAL ELECTION, HILLARY AND BERNIE LEAD THE DONALD" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved 19 March 2016.
31. "Clinton & Trump Continue to Hold Commanding Leads in New York in Their Respective Party Primaries" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved 8 March 2016.
32. "Hillary Leads Bernie By 21 Points Among NY Dems; Trump Has Strong Lead Over Rubio & Cruz with NY Reps" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved 9 February 2016.
33. "New York Primary Election Results". Retrieved 2016-04-23.
34. "New York Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2016-04-23.