Ohio Republican primary, 2016

Ohio Republican primary, 2016

March 15, 2016

Candidate John Kasich Donald Trump Ted Cruz Home state Ohio New York Texas Delegate count 66 0 0 Popular vote 933,886 713,404 264,640 Percentage 46.95% 35.87% 13.31%

Ohio results by county.   John Kasich   Donald Trump

The Ohio Republican primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio. The primary was won by the state's incumbent governor, John Kasich.

Background

In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for the 6th of March.^[1] However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, only reached 37% of the vote and thus only won 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks.^[2] In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided on making the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.^[3]

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.^[4][5]

Run-up to the election

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Primary results	March 15, 2016	John Kasich 46.95%	Donald Trump 35.87%	Ted Cruz 13.31%	Marco Rubio 2.34%, Ben Carson 0.72%, Jeb Bush 0.27%, Mike Huckabee 0.25%, Chris Christie 0.12%, Carly Fiorina 0.11%, Rick Santorum 0.07%
ARG[6] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400	March 12–13, 2016	John Kasich 44%	Donald Trump 38%	Ted Cruz 12%	Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 4%
Monmouth University[7] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 503	March 11–13, 2016	John Kasich 40%	Donald Trump 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4%
Quinnipiac University[8] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 721	March 8–13, 2016	Donald Trump 38%	John Kasich 38%	Ted Cruz 16%	Marco Rubio 3%, Undecided 4%
CBS News/YouGov[9] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 798	March 9–11, 2016	John Kasich 33%	Donald Trump 33%	Ted Cruz 27%	Marco Rubio 5%, No Preference 2%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist[10] Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 564	March 4–10, 2016	John Kasich 39%	Donald Trump 33%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 6%
Fox News[11] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 806	March 5–8, 2016	John Kasich 34%	Donald Trump 29%	Ted Cruz 19%	Marco Rubio 7%, Undecided 5%, Other 3%, None of the above 2%
Quinnipiac University[12] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 685	March 2–7, 2016	Donald Trump 38%	John Kasich 32%	Ted Cruz 16%	Marco Rubio 9%, Undecided 5%
Public Policy Polling[13] Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 638	March 4–6, 2016	Donald Trump 38%	John Kasich 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 5%, Undecided 5%
CNN/ORC[14] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 359	March 2–6, 2016	Donald Trump 41%	John Kasich 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 7%
Quinnipiac University[15] Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 759	February 16–20, 2016	Donald Trump 31%	John Kasich 26%	Ted Cruz 21%	Marco Rubio 13%, Ben Carson 5%, Someone else 0%, DK/NA 5%
Baldwin Wallace University[16] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 440	February 11–20, 2016	Donald Trump 31%	John Kasich 29%	Ted Cruz 11%	Marco Rubio 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Don't Know 8%
Quinnipiac University[17] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433	September 25 – October 5, 2015	Donald Trump 23%	Ben Carson 18%	John Kasich 13%	Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Would not vote 2%, DK/NA 6%
Quinnipiac University[18] Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 371	August 7–18, 2015	John Kasich 27%	Donald Trump 21%	Ted Cruz 7%	Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know 11%
Quinnipiac University[19] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 413	June 4–15, 2015	John Kasich 19%	Jeb Bush 9%	Scott Walker 8%	Marco Rubio 7%, Rand Paul 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Rick Perry 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1%, Don't know 17%
Public Policy Polling[20] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 411	June 4–7, 2015	John Kasich 19%	Ben Carson 13%	Scott Walker 13%	Jeb Bush 12%, Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Someone Else/Not Sure 8%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 404	March 17–28, 2015	John Kasich 20%	Ted Cruz 9%	Mike Huckbee 9%	Scott Walker 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%
		John Kasich 22%	Scott Walker 10%	Ted Cruz 9%	Mike Huckabee 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Perry 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 17%
		John Kasich 22%	Ted Cruz 11%	Jeb Bush 9%	Ben Carson 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 337	January 22 – February 1, 2015	Mitt Romney 15%	John Kasich 11%	Scott Walker 10%	Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Ted Cruz 5%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 18%
		John Kasich 14%	Scott Walker 11%	Jeb Bush 10%	Rand Paul 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 20%
Magellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 300	April 14–15, 2014	Mike Huckabee 17%	Rand Paul 15%	Jeb Bush 13%	Chris Christie 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, John Kasich 10%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 4%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 357	Aug. 16–19, 2013	Chris Christie 17%	Rand Paul 17%	Jeb Bush 10%	Marco Rubio 9%, John Kasich 8%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Someone Else/Undecided 17%

The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11.^[21] The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election.^[22] Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.^[23]

Results

Ohio Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
John Kasich	933,886	46.95%	66	0	66
Donald Trump	713,404	35.87%	0	0	0
Ted Cruz	264,640	13.31%	0	0	0
Marco Rubio	46,478	2.34%	0	0	0
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	14,351	0.72%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	5,398	0.27%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	4,941	0.25%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	2,430	0.12%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	2,112	0.11%	0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	1,320	0.07%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	1,988,960	100.00%	66	0	66
Source: The Green Papers

Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.^[24]

References

1. "Ohio Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
2. "Super Tuesday II: Clinton sweeps Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina; Rubio quits after Trump wins Florida". Washington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
3. "Ohio GOP sets presidential primary as a winner-take-all event, a move that could boost John Kasich". cleveland.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
4. "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
5. "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
6. "2016 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
7. "OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE" (PDF). Monmouth University Polling Institute. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
8. "TRUMP TOPS RUBIO IN FLORIDA, TIES KASICH IN OHIO, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CLINTON LEADS SANDERS IN TWO CRITICAL PRIMARIES" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
9. "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida". YouGov. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
10. "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio". NBC News. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
11. "Fox News Poll: Kasich ahead in Ohio". Fox News. Retrieved 10 March 2016.
12. "TRUMP BURIES RUBIO 2-1 IN FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; KASICH TRYING TO CATCH TRUMP IN OHIO" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved 10 March 2016.
13. "Trump, Kasich in Tight Ohio Race" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 8 March 2016.
14. Bradner, Eric (2016-03-09). "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio". CNN. Retrieved 2016-03-09.
15. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 26 February 2016.
16. "Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 26 February 2016.
17. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2016.
18. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2015.
19. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2015.
20. "Public Policy Polling" (PDF). Retrieved 7 January 2015.
21. CNN, Tal Kopan, Julia Manchester and MJ Lee. "Best chance to stop Trump in Ohio is Kasich, Rubio adviser says". CNN. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
22. "ARG (3/12-3/13 2016)". The Huffington Post. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
23. "What's At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries". FiveThirtyEight. 2016-03-14. Retrieved 2016-06-23.
24. "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved 2016-06-23.