United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016
Indiana
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Todd Young Evan Bayh Lucy Brenton
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 1,422,965 1,157,645 149,362
Percentage 52.1% 42.4% 5.5%

U.S. Senator before election

Dan Coats
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Todd Young
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Coats, who has served in the Senate since 2011, and previously served from 1989 to 1999, had stated that he planned to run for re-election,[1][2] but in March 2014 his Chief of Staff said that Coats "has decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[3] On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.[4] The primaries were held on May 3, and were won by former U.S. Representative Baron Hill and incumbent U.S. Representative Todd Young. However, on July 11, 2016, Hill withdrew, and former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh entered the race to regain the seat he held from 1999–2011, and that his father, Birch Bayh, held from 1963–1981. The Indiana Democratic Party chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Young defeated Bayh in the general election.[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Todd
Young		 Marlin
Stutzman		 Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist April 26–28, 2016 645 ± 3.9% 56% 24% 20%
IPFW/Downs Center April 13–27, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 42% 34% 24%
WTHR/Howey April 18–21, 2016 507 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 26%

Results

Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 661,136 67%
Republican Marlin Stutzman 324,429 33%
Total votes 985,565 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Baron Hill 516,183 100.00%
Total votes 516,183 100.00%

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[43] Hill soon after released a statement formally dropping out of the race saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[44] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[44] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[45] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[46] The Indiana Democratic Party’s State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[44]

Candidates

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Tossup November 3, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[63] Tossup October 21, 2016
Daily Kos[64] Tossup November 3, 2016
Real Clear Politics[65] Tossup November 3, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Todd
Young (R)		 Evan
Bayh (D)		 Lucy
Brenton (L)		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 53% 42% — 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 52% 43% — 5%
WTHR/Howey November 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 6% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 52% 43% — 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 51% 44% — 5%
Gravis Marketing Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 37% 40% 7% 16%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 51% 46% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 50% 46% — 4%
Monmouth University October 27–30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 22–24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 37% 39% 7% 17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey October 10–16, 2016 544 ± 3.9% 43% 49% — 6%
Monmouth University October 11–13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 6% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ October 9–11, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 8% 13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,123 ± 3.0% 43% 46% — 11%
WTHR/Howey October 3–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 8% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ October 3, 2016[66] ?[67] ± ?%[67] 38% 42% 7% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ September 21, 2016[66] ?[67] ± ?%[67] 39% 44% 9% 8%
WTHR/Howey September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ September 1, 2016[66] ?[67] ± ?%[67] 35% 44% 6% 15%
Garin-Hart-Yang§ August 15–18, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 39% 55% — 6%
Monmouth University August 13–16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 4% 7%
Global Strategy Group‡ August 10–14, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 36% 54% — 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ August 8, 2016[66] ?[67] ± ?%[67] 35% 48% 7% 10%
Expedition Strategies↓ August 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 32% 58% — 9%
Garin-Hart-Yang↑ July 12–14, 2016 602 ± 4.1% 33% 54% — 13%

References

  1. 1 2 Bradner, Eric (December 8, 2012). "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  2. ↑ Francisco, Brian (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  3. 1 2 3 4 "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved October 12, 2014.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  5. ↑ Maureen Groppe (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". KokomoPerspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
  7. ↑ Cahn, Emily (May 9, 2015). "Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. ↑ Francisco, Brian (August 18, 2015). "Candidate fields growing quietly". Journal Gazette. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  9. ↑ "May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State Election Division. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  10. ↑ Joseph, Cameron (March 26, 2015). "Chief of staff launches Senate bid for Coats's seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2015.
  11. ↑ "Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race". WRTV. February 8, 2016. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
  12. ↑ Francisco, Brian (May 11, 2015). "Banks set for Congress run". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  13. 1 2 3 Howey, Brian A.; Schoeff, Jr., Mark (March 24, 2015). "Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  14. ↑ de la Bastide, Ken (April 20, 2015). "Brooks won't run for U.S. Senate". The Herald Bulletin. Retrieved April 20, 2015.
  15. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (March 24, 2015). "Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested.". Twitter. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  16. ↑ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (March 24, 2015). "Coats Not Running For Re-Election". Indy Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  17. ↑ "TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope'". The Indianapolis Star. April 21, 2015.
  18. 1 2 Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  19. ↑ Carden, Dan (September 15, 2015). "UPDATE: Delph opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  20. ↑ Raju, Manu (March 25, 2015). "Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney". Twitter. Retrieved March 25, 2015.
  21. ↑ Helms, Aubrey (August 4, 2015). "Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race". The Statehouse File. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  22. ↑ Eric Bradner, Dana Bash and MJ Lee (July 15, 2016). "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". CNN.
  23. ↑ Carden, Dan (June 10, 2015). "Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved June 10, 2015.
  24. ↑ Vandenack, Tim (April 15, 2015). "U.S. Rep. Walorski to seek third term in House, won't run for Senate after all". The Elkhart Truth. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
  25. ↑ Marturello, Mike (April 9, 2015). "Zoeller quiets talk of Senate run to replace Coats". News and Tribune. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  26. ↑ https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/718130383192252416
  27. ↑ http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/04/21/rand-paul-bucks-mcconnell-endorses-stutzman-indiana-senate-primary/
  28. ↑ https://www.facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/photos/pb.261624820205.-2207520000.1461268809./10157529690335206/?type=3
  29. 1 2 3 Francisco, Brian (January 17, 2016). "GOP Senate hopefuls aim right". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  30. ↑ Francisco, Brian (March 22, 2016). "FreedomWorks endorses Stutzman in Senate race". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  31. 1 2 "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved May 6, 2016.
  32. ↑ Lewis, Olivia (August 15, 2015). "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  33. ↑ "John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate". wfyi Indianapolis. January 21, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
  34. ↑ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (March 24, 2015). "Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All". Roll Call. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  35. 1 2 Livingston, Abby (19 June 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved 20 September 2013.
  36. ↑ Smith, Brandon (May 25, 2016). "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate". WFIU.
  37. ↑ Bruggeman, Karyn (March 8, 2015). "Mike Pence and Indiana's Deep Freeze". National Journal. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  38. ↑ Howey, Brian A. (March 24, 2015). "Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  39. ↑ Howey, Brian (September 10, 2015). "U.S. Senate race: McDermott considers" (PDF). Howey Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  40. ↑ Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "GOP braces for free-for-all in Indiana". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  41. ↑ Turner, Kris (June 4, 2015). "Glenda Ritz calls education 'catalyst for improvement' in run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  42. ↑ Tester, Jon (March 8, 2016). "DSCC Endorses Baron Hill in Indiana Senate Race". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  43. 1 2 Tom LoBianco (July 11, 2016). "First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return". CNN.
  44. 1 2 3 "Baron Hill withdraws from U.S. Senate race; Evan Bayh to enter race". WTHR. July 11, 2016.
  45. 1 2 "Bob Kern Senate filing" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. July 12, 2016.
  46. 1 2 Tom LoBianco (July 13, 2016). "Bayh announces Senate bid, puts Indiana seat in play". CNN. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
  47. ↑ Rucker, Philip (October 23, 2016). "Clinton infuses cash into Senate, gubernatorial races, including Indiana and Missouri". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  48. ↑ Roberts, Kelly (October 26, 2016). "Mayor Tom Henry campaigns for Evan Bayh". WANE-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  49. ↑ "Daily News Bin endorses Democrat Evan Bayh in 2016 Senate race in Indiana". Daily News Bin. July 12, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  50. ↑ Shella, Jim (September 8, 2016). "UAW endorses Bayh, attacks Young". WISH-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  51. ↑ "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate". The Journal Gazette. October 23, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  52. ↑ "Endorsements: A tough choice for U.S. Senate but Bayh is sensible pick for Indiana". South Bend Tribune. October 30, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  53. ↑ "Tom Cotton campaigns with Todd Young". tomcotton.com. October 27, 2016. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  54. ↑ Roberts, Kelly (November 5, 2016). "Senator Ted Cruz makes final push for Todd Young". WANE-TV. Retrieved November 6, 2016.
  55. ↑ Republican Party of Indiana (November 1, 2016). "I work with @ToddYoung closely- he's one of the most hardworking men in Congress. He's a servant leader.- @PRyan". Twitter. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  56. ↑ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). "Why Indiana needs a conservative fighter like @ToddYoungIN in the U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p...". Twitter. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
  57. 1 2 3 "Endorsements". toddyoung.org.
  58. ↑ DeFreeuw, Eric (September 21, 2016). "NRA ad takes aim at Bayh's gun control voting record". WPTA. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  59. ↑ Shella, Jim (March 30, 2016). "Todd Young wins business endorsements". WISH-TV. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  60. ↑ "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate". The Indianapolis Star. October 22, 2016. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
  61. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  62. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  63. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings (October 14, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  64. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  65. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  66. 1 2 3 4 Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
  67. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Data for past internal polls were not released.

External links

Official campaign websites
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